Toyota Owners Jump Ship to Tesla

Tesla is currently building about 10,000 model 3 per month with the goal of building about 20,000 per month by the end of the year. But I agree that the auto industry is in bad shape when Toyota can only sell about 3,000 Primes a month.

 

Tesla's are basically an iPhone on wheels. Planned Obsolescence throw away cars. It's a high tech car full of sophisticated computers like a Mercedes Benz. Like I said before these cars will turn into money pit machines as they are very expensive to fix past the warranty. I don't need a fancy high tech car that's prone to Electronic problems down the road, I need something that's simple and reliable that I can drive for 10+ plus years with very few problems. All this new tech is that turns cars into money pits. The Model S alone has over 65 different CPUs many of them powered by Nvidia. That's more computers than my 2nd Prius with only 17 Computer Modules. A Mercedes S Class has well over a 100 of them. Sadly all the modern cars are getting more and more complex and even cutting corners to keep customers buying a new car every 5 years like buying a new iPhone each year a new model comes out. It's all about planned obsolescence these days. That's why I like older cars.

 

Not an unusual number. More options means more microprocessors. Or, new wiring for each and every option.
If you want a simple car, that is fine. But more microprocessors actually provide cost and material savings. Tesla is certainly not anything out of the norm in its market in this respect.

 

My Ranger was assembled in the Edison, NJ plant. Probably a shopping mall there now.

Profits is only part of the reason the new Ranger won't be cheap. The other reason is because of regulations. The old Ranger's production run finally ended because a new safety regulation going into effect would have required a redesign of the entire truck. In addition to safety equipment, there is also all the standard equipment people expect in a new car these days. Our range still had window cranks. That may be acceptable for a fleet sales trim, but not for something in a dealer showroom.

Then there was the new CAFE regulations. The CAFE targets aren't simply two, one for the car fleet and one for trucks, but also vary base on the size of the area a car covers; its footprint. The target for a compact pick up like the old Ranger is much higher than that for a full size, or even a midsize. There is only so much that can be done for a pick up's aerodynamics, and then all the stuff now required on a car adds weight. Has as been pointed out here, aluminum bodies like the F150's is expensive. Such isn't an option for a smaller truck with tighter margins. Of course hybridization is an option, but that also increases the price.

So we are getting midsize Ranger to compete with the, also no longer a compact, Tacoma.

Technically, Tesla could be, but I think the data that was presented here is from owners tracking capacity online.

The auto industry has had planned obsolescence since the Model T. Whenever a company critter, from any company, is talking in lifetime of a car, they mean around 150,000 miles or 10 years.

As for throw away cars, you should look into the hydrogen FCEV Toyota is pushing. They've cut costs on the fuel cell, but still aren't willing to state a dollar amount. Then the stack's lifespan is an unknown. Until the Mirai, no one was willing to actually sell a FCEV. For all we know, the fuel cells in those lease only cars were ready to fail. Even if the stack can last, the hydrogen tanks will have to be replaced. Such pressure vessels have an end of use date in which they legally have to be taken out of service. For many, that means before they have put 200k miles on the car.

 

The numbers are now out for auto sales at the end of May. The numbers below reflect the year to date sales for the listed vehicles and the percentage increase or decrease compared to the same period in 2017.

Toyota Prius: total sales in 2018 = 20, 554, -25.6%
Toyota Prime: total sales in 2018 = 12,018, +48.9%
Tesla model 3: total sales in 2018 = 18,305, N.A.

I predict that model 3 total sales will eclipse the combined Toyota Prius/Prime total sales before the end of the year. I take no joy in this because Toyota should be a competitor in this segment of the market to produce viable alternatives. Time for a change in top level management.

 

Where are you getting these numbers?

 

You are comparing a "luxury" EV vechicle to mainstream Hybrid and Plugin Hybrids. They aren't even in the same class. Plus Tesla is competing in a declining sedan market. I even though the the Tesla 3 comparison with BMW 3, Lexus IS was laughable because Tesla has a segment problem trying to stretch it's three models across different segments that aren't comparable. Tesla Model 3 market share claims are flawed - Business Insider

 

you should add rav4h to that because 'prius owners jumped ship to rav4h'. i'm not chuffed about it, toyota will figure things out eventually.

 

That article(opinion piece) is just as guilty, if not more so, as Tesla of stretching and omitting things.

"Thus the yet-to-arrive $35,000 Model 3 could match up against the base BMW 3-Series....The more expensive Model 3 takes on the 5-Series, again on price...but at the moment, it's{model 3} priced like some mid-sizers."
It fails to mention that the 3 series can easily be optioned out to a higher price than the base 5 series.

"...the Model 3 isn't actually supposed to be a luxury car — it's supposed to be, at the base price, a car for the masses..."
This simply isn't true. Tesla never claimed the Model 3 was going to be a car for the masses like a Corolla or Camry. People were hoping and wishing for that, but the technology and costs aren't quite there for a BEV for the masses with a range over 200 miles. A fully loaded Bolt lists for nearly $44k. No one seems outraged or even peeved about that or that the base trim is $37.5k for a Chevy.

While correcting untruths in the article, under EPA classifications, the Model 3 is technically a midsize like the Prius, and the Model S a full size. Though the S gets there by virtue of being a hatchback, but then EPA interior measurement ignores the front trunk.

 

Chevrolet (GM) never announced that they were building the Bolt for the masses at a $35K price point, so for those who had held out for a Model 3 at $35K, can be annoyed at this point.

 

I'm getting these numbers from Tesla. In May they reached a figure of 500 builds a day. They are working 3 shifts, 24/7 so that is 15,000 builds a month. Elon installed new robotic equipment the last week in May, they shut the assembly line down for 5 or 6 days. He predicts that they will achieve a build of 6000 units a week by the end of the year.

I was only doing that because you were comparing Prius to Tesla. The sticker price for my Prius Plug-In AT in 2012 was $40K. Sounds like the same class to me!

Says who? The reason the sedan market is declining for ICE cars is because of Tesla and their ~500K pre-orders. As soon as Tesla introduces the model Y, the CUV market for ice vehicles will face a declining market!

Perhaps annoyed but not enough to cancel their reservation!

 

No they are not. The only comparison I made was the battery lifespan I was talking about. You still have a ICE and its a main stream brand not a Lexus which is not even a direct competitor to Telsa. The Nissan leaf and Bolt would be more closely related competitors to the Model 3 despite that they are mass market brand cars rather than a luxury marque.

Nope. Everyone is buying gas guzzling machines as all I see on the road these days is large pickups on lift kits and crossovers. America likes big machines. Every since the gas prices have fallen $2 nation wide with in the past three years, everyone started ditching sedans for bigger vehicles. Those 500k pre orders will be years before those people even see a model 3 in their hands. The company has production problems that the back log reservations will continue to get refunded while the company keeps loosing money every sec. What makes the Y going to do any a better trying to make production targets? Tesla is late to the game in CUV. EV is a very small niche market as I don't expect it to blow in 5 years any time soon. Realistically Its going to be a very long time before EVs take over all ICEs. Talking decades. I don't fall for the delusional marketing hype. The $35k priced model 3 doesn't exist since it's delayed. The average american working class is not going to afford to take out $50k-$70k in auto loans.

 

There's a difference between increased production vs backlogs. Most of those backlogs are for the $35k price model which will be years before those people even see them. Many people are opting out and moving on to something else because its taking Tesla too long because the company has quality control and production problems.

All of those Tesla Autopilot crashes have been catching a lot of media lately I see. That was one of Telsa main selling points that's now getting destroyed by the media.

 

Interesting speculations.
How do you know most of these reservations are for the $35k version? It would make some sense that more than half are for a $35-$40k version. And I am sure a few people are waiting for the bare bones $35k version, but most??
You state the $35k version is "years" away? By "years" I take it you mean 24 months or more?
Many people are opting out. Some are moving into a Model S, others are just sick of waiting. I don't blame them as it can be frustrating when things don't go as planned. However, many more people are continuing to wait and new people are placing reservations.

Quality control is an issue for the first year of a new model for any company. Tesla seems to have gotten it under control pretty quickly.

 

Do you think the average american working class can afford a $70k car? That's pretty common sense. People would be paying out a mortgage loan on these cars. The only people buying these 50k-70k cars is ones with very high incomes. Those backlogs are reservations made all the way back in 2016 for the $35k price model 3 but Tesla keep missing production targets delaying the cheaper $35k model 3.

Tesla is far from fixing its quality control problems if it doesn't implement a lean just-in-time production system. The Six-Sigma is failing Telsa as Its still production hell there and very disorganized. Should of listened to Deming. Tesla factory paint shop fires worse than revealed: Workers

 

Let's try this again:
Were you predicting that we won't see the $35k Model 3 available for 2 or more years?