Toyota Owners Jump Ship to Tesla

No, it was always in the cards. Those spinning fuel-cell investment as something other than diversity may be surprised though. The rest of us always knew affordability would require patience.

 

And work by others.

 

Meh, trying to, but I'm stuck in a Benz C300 ICE for over 3 weeks now after unloading my perfect Prius C to Carvana on what was supposed to be the Model 3 day of delivery (4-26).

 

is 800 out of 400,000 a significant enough sample size?

 

Doesn't mater, since sales during the tax-credit availability are not in any way representative of what mainstream consumers will face with their purchase decision. Buying in this early stage is quite different from the market for the masses.

 

but you can only get the credit on loaded models. it will be gone by the time the base ids available.
and these are just placeholders, not people who actually have purchased a tesla.

 

My impressions (and I perceive myself to be a long-time Tesla fan):

The main reason to buy a Tesla is to support their mission of speeding the transition to clean energy and clean transport. The main reason not to is that they’re still learning how to produce a reliable car, unfortunately.

The main reason to buy a Tesla specifically over other EVs is their Supercharger network. Autopilot is a close-second reason.

Toyota is way behind in recognizing the potential and significance of battery-electric vehicles, following their strange fascination with FCEVs. They’re starting to catch on though, in part because Tesla proved that it really can be done, and made not only practical but downright exciting!

Of course their other big driver is the same as for the Automotive Industry in general: China’s huge push in the direction. I gather they’re putting a lot of investment into solid-state batteries, possibly taking that as the required enabling technology.

 

Spreading of misunderstood intent needs to stop. We are the ones who can help with that.

Fuel-Cell use will be significant in the future. That's how power-suppliers will compensate for high-demand, using stored hydrogen to supplement peak need rather than continuing to depend upon the dirty sources. Just talk to someone in the industry, that switch-over is something they are very much looking forward too. There's also the commercial use of fuel-cells. Think about how incredibly practical that is for buses, construction, delivery trucks, and portable power. Most people don't.

Most people only see the personal transport rollouts... and totally overlook the reality that those taking the leap are the ones who will promote use for fleets. Think of how important it is to have rapid refill for a parking lot full of vehicles all needing to be deployed at the same time.

As for Toyota not recognizing, that hasn't ever been true. The first model-year of the first-generation actually had a plug. We saw the 100 km/h design rolled out in 2003 for Prius. Back then and as of recent, the barrier to reaching the masses is cost & capacity. There should be no doubt that the perceived legacy leader from Detroit who supposedly gave a full endorsement for plug-in vehicles will be in a world of hurt soon when tax-credit phaseout begins, making their struggle for sales even more difficult. Cost is still very much an issue.

Haven't you noticed how hard Toyota has pushed with lithium battery technology? They made all but 1 model of Prius us it. That step in the direction of high-volume supply & demand effort should be obvious. Less obvious is how hard Toyota has pushed to not require liquid cooling. That raises cost & complex issues, ones Tesla much also address by does not have legacy constraints to also deal with.

In other words, labeling Toyota as "behind" serves no purpose when the bigger picture is taken into consideration.

 

Tesla has not delivered an EV in the price category of Toyota customers yet.

Nicely under $30k without tax-credit subsidy (the target for mainstream buyers) is something we are still waiting for.

It is quite realistic to expect Tesla to achieve that. No worries. But we are a number of years away...

 

Yes, I speak primarily of passenger vehicles, and I really doubt if anybody can realistically expect sufficient deployment of alternative fueling infrastructure for such vehicles.

As for Toyota being behind, they sell no BEVs.

 

Elon has already intimated he is not the company to meet that demand. He wants companies like Toyota to meet that demand. Elon is really not into the auto manufacturing business, he is into the changing lifestyles business and pushing the envelope on future expectations. The legacy automakers are being dragged along, kicking and screaming.

 

Rather than traitors jumping ship, I'd portray many of them as predestined to be affordable Tesla owners, but camping out in Priuses until that Tesla ship arrives. Toyota has benefited by having the next-best-thing available during the interim.

 

@fuzzy1 just nailed it with a concise synopsis! My Tesla ship has now arrived!

 

True, although they’re not far off from that. Nissan and GM have, though. Tesla wants to remain perceived as a luxury brand.

What Tesla has done is to transform the world’s perception of EVs from golf carts to practical vehicles, if not holy-freaking-crap super cars.

 

Generalizations are not helpful... perhaps some clarity about that specific resistance you feel still persists.

Toyota is converting its entire fleet to offer hybrid models. Camry hybrid is an outstanding example of a compelling alternative to traditional propulsion. Think of how valuable Corolla PHEV will be to that effort. We know there will be an EV model of C-HR. We also know there are plans for a PHEV model of RAV-4. We may see a mid-cycle upgrade of Prius Prime too. So, it's safe to say Toyota is working toward mass-market change.

What about GM with their 2 conflicting approaches, neither one which is of any interest to their customers who overwhelmingly prefer SUV choices? They are being dragged, kicking, or screaming. It's just what they turned in as homework wasn't what was assigned. Remember how the goal of electrification was to get automakers to switch over to vehicles with plugs? If all that automaker does is offer niche vehicles for conquest sales, that goal is being missed entirely.

Sadly, there will always be a level of push back, but you can see very real change coming when ordinary people are drawn to a choice without any special incentive. Watch what happens when tax-credit phaseouts are triggered.

 

Nope, only Nissan, which has done an excellent job of delivering as much as possible for an EV without exceeding that important $30k price.

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MSRP of both Volt and Bolt is still too high. And even with the $7,500 tax-credit, sales are far under a sustainable level for profitable business... especially if GM wants them to be mainstream choices.

 

Utility scale storage is just as lucrative, if not more so, than fool cells. I know, I know, I'm generalizing, but I'm really tired of hearing about the unobtainium known as FCs and the H2 hard-on for what's just around the corner. We can try to gloss over the abject failure of the Toyota Mirage (sic), but I think the results speak for themselves. For commercial purposes, EV buses (combined with record-breaking solar installations) are absolutely dominating in China, leaving little room for all this speculative future fuel cell development.

 

I personally don’t perceive $30K pre-incentives to be a make-or-break point, but that’s certainly a reasonable viewpoint. I do agree that it’s not much higher than that.

 

Electric cars should be way cheaper to produce than a standard gas automobile once they get past the R&D stage.
I predict the cheap electric car will be Chinese. JMO