Featured "Green" car segment growth

Not very strong incentives for manufacturers to push hybrids these days. They cost a bit more and the enthusiasts who would pay the premium and appreciate the value have already moved on to plug-ins.

As for plug-ins, manufacturers get significant credits for them, and there are thousands in federal and state incentives for many buyers such that plug-ins are often a the better value proposition. For example, the Prime can be had for less than the standard Prius if one qualifies for full government incentives.

Also, regulations don’t do much to encourage hybridization becoming a new baseline. Selling trucks and SUVs and getting credits for some plug-ins apparently is more profitable for manufacturers at this point.

 

Oh I can find a lot of fault with those conclusions.
It is true that plug-ins are cannibalizing some hybrid sales. But hybrids were headed south before plug-ins were readily available.
I also know a number of people with full strength plug-ins or BEVs that wouldn't be driving a hybrid as an alternative.
No, low gasoline prices had more to do with the loss of market share for the hybrids. And I don't expect hybrids without a plug will increase their market share much as gas prices increase.

Some people do buy EV's because they are green. But many buy EV's because they drive better, are cheaper to run, have better performance or just because they are the new tech. I even know a few that bought BEVs in spite of them being Green

update--------
Ok, now I am not so sure about hybrid market share taking a turn south before plug-ins were readily available. Perhaps more cannibalization was happening than I thought. I am confident it isn't a 1 to 1 ratio. But it may be a stronger correlation than I first thought. Still looking for data.

 

Agree, at this point, everything else unchanged, I would suspect significantly more would transition to a plug-in than non-plug-in hybrid if gas prices spike.

Ultimately once battery prices come down more significantly, market forces will take over and plug-in growth should swell.

Not sure it’s the most perfect analogy, but I imagine incandescent, CFL, and LED light bulbs somewhat analogous to ICE, hybrid, and plug-ins.

For a long time incandescent was by far the cheapest up front cost. Enthusiasts moved on to CFL then LED when available even if they never made back their investment with lower electricity costs. As LEDs became cheaper, others switched from CFL to LED for improving total cost savings. Eventually the general public started to realize LEDs made more sense than incandescents and their up front costs and quality improved drastically. Now home improvement stores sell mostly LEDs. CFLs had their day, but in retrospect seem transitional.

 

My local dealer only has two Prii in inventory and no Prime. Either they are selling like hot cakes or no one wants them. I think the latter. This is pick up truck and SUV country. Men here drink beer.

 

Men here in California drink beer too. But it’s craft beer.

 

I'm sure someone will explain this to me, but I don't quite get this statement:

If plug in hybrid sales have increased, doesn't that mean "hybrid" sales have increased? Plug in Hybrids, are Hybrids. I suppose I can believe that overall sales of all "green" cars have stalled out, or that the market is remaining relatively stable supported by a consumer base that has already had a history of Hybrid or Electric Vehicle ownership.

Gas supply and price has been relatively stable, there isn't much to encourage 1st time buyers to look at hybrids or plug in's. I think Toyota has tried to reach a 1st time or new owner market, with the "Entry Level" Prius c, and with the further mainstreaming no compromise approach to Gen 4 Prius. But with gas prices still in the "doesn't hurt too much" range, I think most Non-Hybrid, Electric buyers, are still just apt to look at ICE vehicles.

I can understand that maybe the buying audience has become somewhat encapsulated, and become "green car buyers, buying new green cars". Unilateral moves within the segment from Hybrid to Plug In Hybrid, or from Hybrid to Electric.

But the way the statement is worded is confusing.
Are they NOT counting plug in Hybrids as Hybrids?

If plug in Hybrid sales are increasing, while overall "electric vehicle" sales are also increasing, I'd say more precisely the data represents that sales of "alternative" fueled vehicles such as Hybrids, Plug In Hybrids and Full Electrics, at worst are staying the same. Every time someone buys a Prime or Plug In Hybrid, they aren't buying a standard Hybrid, but they are still buying a hybrid.

What has now become the "base" product....the standard Hybrid, may not appeal to the already initiated audience as much. "To Go Before" has been the battle cry for Prius owners now for decades. If the movement is towards plug in's and full electrics, it doesn't surprise me too much that the core buying audience for "Prime" and other alternative full electric options, are the same people that have owned "regular" Prius, but now perhaps looking for further efficiency. Prius owners have always demonstrated the willingness to "Go Before" the general public or overall market.

But if the market has stalled out? I think it has much more to do with gas prices remaining relatively stable. Unfortunately, a lot of people simply will not consider a hybrid or electric or anything beyond the vast market of ICE, without some type of outside motivation to do so. It's always been a challenge for Toyota and other manufacturers to get people 1st time buyers to consider what a large audience still "wrongly" consider a fringe or alternative product, over the still dominating pure ICE vehicle.

When I bought my Prius, less than 5 years ago, a good friend of mine told me he thought Hybrids were OK, but "not ready yet", he didn't trust the product.
Unfortunately I don't think his attitude is rare. I think for many, it would take almost being forced to look at the alternatives, before they would look at the alternatives.
Credit the success of Toyota and others, for reaching the point where I think that market has been reached.

The next growth stage I think comes with a bit of pain. When owning that 14-22 mpg SUV becomes a real sacrifice? Then I think we may see a real upturn in the 1st time Hybrid, Plug in, and Electric segments.

You might even see a Honda Fit owner return to Hybrid ownership.

 

the only things we know for sure is that green cars are not growing, plugins are while non plug ins aren't, and we have low gas prices.
everything else is pure speculation, with no data and usually driven by the speculators perspective and personal experience's.
we had this same discussion many times in the past with zero conclusions.

 

True, much of this is driven by speculation and personal experience does tint that.
However, I can for a fact say that not ALL plugin sales came at the cost of a hybrid sale. Likewise, I can say for a fact that at least SOME of plugin sales did come at a cost of a hybrid sales.

It is also false that we have "no data" on this. I have surveyed many owners of plugin vehicles about the car's they previously owned.
Is this that same quality of data as a peer reviewed paper? No. However, it is a lot better than "no data".

 

Well, I am going off the provided linked article, that does throw out some percentages as if they are fact, although NOT citing source.

This is all presented as fact, not speculators perspective or personal experience.

The whole thread is here to discuss and speculate about, and unless you work in a job that directly ties you to information about exact sales numbers of course it's going to be opinion about the article. But the article, is presented as being fact.

 

agree that some plug in owners came from non ev's, and some hybrid owners have left for non ev's.
and some plug in owners have left have probably left for non ev's. it's too convoluted to try and make anything out of data from personal polling.
the overriding concern is that the segment isn't growing, but i'm still of the belief that it's all about gas prices.
(not much data there either though)

 

I think HIGH gasoline prices entice potential 1st time buyers to look at Prius and Hybrids. And gasoline supply and prices have been relatively stable and "affordable" for most budgets.

But, and this is opinion, I also think as the article suggests, the "Green Car" market has become somewhat encapsulated. How do you entice potential 1st time Hybrid/Electric owners? Especially at a time when gas prices are not prohibitive for most people.

I'm pretty sure it isn't just one factor.

For example, and this is more opinion on my behalf, but Toyota chose to go more "mainstream" non-compromise vehicle with it's recent advertising for the Gen 4 Prius. We were to be impressed at how sporty it looks, and impressed by how it performs as an automobile.

Maybe I'm old school, but I still think most buyers of Prius and Hybrids, buy them because of the fuel efficiency and lower emissions. If you watched most of Toyota's recent advertising for the Gen 4 Prius, you'd hardly know those are benefits of owning a Hybrid.

In less than 10 years, we went from singing foam tree's, waving at The Prius as it drove by, and exclamations of Prius promoting "Harmony Between Man, Nature and Machine" to the Gen 4 Superbowl commercial that promoted "performance" in terms of The Prius being an able get away vehicle.

I personally think, Toyota needs to remember what made Prius great. And that was lower emissions, and great efficiency. Fine if they want to make vehicle performance better, and the looks more mainstream but remember what brought Prius to prominence in the segment.

Nobody really buys a Prius 1st...because of looks, or even IMO quick acceleration. You can and should work towards making those things continually better, but don't make those things the primary selling points.

It's still about 50+ mpg, and cleaner air.

 

I understand that is your belief, and with your viewpoint it is reasonable.
If it were all about gas prices, each segment of the 'green car' market would be decreasing. Instead, we have two segments growing and one shrinking.
The data showing that is not personal anecdotes, just U.S. sales figures.
I would speculate that plugin and BEVs are affected by low gas prices, but not enough to eliminate their growth.
As such, if gas prices continue to increase, I would guess that HEVs will recover some, and PHEV and BEVs will increase their rate of growth.

 

agreed. the gas price data does support my belief. what data suggests other reasons for zero green segment growth?

 

An interesting question would be how many plug ins still on the road, and where are they? Somebody posted an article that said 75% were in Ca. but I never heard that re-quoted. Sales about 50% in Ca.

USA sort of ceded hybrid lead to Toyota and we give no love to hybrids, OTOH plug-ins were are over-the-top on incentives.

 

"Yea, but you have to keep on plugging it in!".

 

The data that two segments of the green car segment are growing.
If it was all about gas prices, all three segments would be decreasing. Instead, PHEVs and BEVs are propping up the green car segment. This year, PHEVs and BEVs should turn that stagnation of the green car segment into growth.

Hybrids have clearly taken a hit with low gas prices, PHEVs and BEVs have continued their growth.
Low market share has also been attributed to the fact that the gap between efficiency of HEVs and gas cars is less than it was years ago. So competition plays a role as well as low gas prices.

 

good point. gassers are getting better. and also, the price delta between ev's and non ev's is diminishing, not to mention the transfer of government sponsored programs from hybrids to plug ins.

 

The tl;dr. Hybrid sales are down mostly due to gas prices, but the arrival of more choices is slowing that down, with SUV options that people want really halping out. The Rav4h is outselling the Prius now. Plug in sales are still growing, despite the majority of options being actual cars and gas prices low. SUV options there are arriving.

Yet we are starting to see hybrid pick ups. A full hybrid F150 is planned for 2020, but the new Ram has a mild hybrid system standard on the V6 and optional on the V8. There is also SUV hybrid and plug in models in the pipeline. Not improving trucks and SUVs and selling fuel efficienct cars at deep discount isn't sustainable to the companies.

Prius sales started dropping just before the Leaf and Volt were released. Toyota Prius Sales Figures | GCBC
But we have to take gas prices into account when discussing hybrid sales.

Stating hybrid owners are switching to plug ins is simply too easy of an answer to complexities out in the real world.

I get the PHEV being a hybrid statement, but when you want to account for things like incentives effect on sales, they need to be treated different.

Hybrid sales are down for some models, and so are gas prices, but the wider selection of models is dampening the drop for the segment. I don't think the majority of Rav4h dales is from previous hybrid owners.

Plug in sales aren't as tied to gas prices, but they also have those incentives to help. They are also at the point hybrids were not too long ago, limited selection. Most car buyers want a SUV or crossover. For those that can't afford a Model X, the Outlander is finally just arriving. Then Ford is planning an Escape PHEV.