A majority of auto executives still think battery electric cars will fail, survey says

i haven't.

 

I’d agree, for the most part. Clearly he’s a big believer in vertical integration, for example.

However, I’d add to his legacy “pursuing a vision and inspiring many to follow.” That, in somewhat the same sense as Steve Jobs did so, but much bigger visions.

Still, when it comes to EVs in particular, I think GM and Mary Barra in particular deserve more credit than they are often granted. The EV1 was a truly visionary product, and the Bolt is continuing that vision (admittedly, I’m not as big a fan of the Volt). Now yes, GM utterly botched up beyond all recognition the EV1’s deployment, but I think Mary Barra has done a lot to make a megalithic company more forward-thinking.

Nissan of course also deserves credit too, although the gen-1 LEAF strikes me as only “pretty good.” Gen-2 looks to be a big improvement, though.

 

The pedigree goes like this:

Inventor: Tesla, AC induction motor
First application in a car: AC Propulsion (ACP)
First Consumer application of technology: GM's EV1, using ACP technology
Second Consumer application and industrialization of technology: Tesla's Roadster, Model S and Model X, starting with ACP technology but eventually developing in-house tech.

By the way, for now both Tesla and GM have chosen PMAC over AC induction for the Model 3 and Bolt, respectively

 

don't forget the electric cars rom the early 1900's, they were no slouches for such early technology.

 

The cooperation between Edison and Ford on that briefly showed a lot of promise. IIRC, Edison developed (up to a point) a Lithium-Iron battery chemistry for that.

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Meanwhile, Toyota is pursuing what perceive to be an admirable-but-unrealistic vision — HFC.

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gm has earned a lot of ill will around here, and it will take some time for them to get the credit they (might) deserve.
but the auto writers seem quite pleased with them.

 

Earned is right.

Between their Toyota FUD and legal escapades against Tesla and CARB, not to mention a history of Corporate scum baggery over a century, the only outcome I accept for them is BK.

 

Definitely not. There are many examples. This one is from the permanent collection of the Larz Anderson Auto Museum in Brookline, Massachusetts:



1908 Bailey Electric Phaeton Victoria
Nickname: The Good Fairy
Motto: “Always Ready and Faithful”

The second of the two electric cars owned by the Andersons, this automobile holds a special place in the Anderson collection as Isabel’s favorite car. Electric cars were advertised as automobiles specifically for women. In one advertisement it stated, “a lady could be individual of a chauffeur – when, where, and as long as she pleases.” The car was advertised as being self-driven, which benefited Isabel tremendously, for she was the first woman in Massachusetts to get a drivers license. However, as it was for many affluent women at this time, a footman’s seat was located in the rear of the car for her convenience.

The Bailey Electric was manufactured in Amesbury, Massachusetts, an area flourishing with carriage companies by 1853. In 1888, 15,000 automobiles were shipped from Amesbury alone. Colonel Edward Warren Bailey was the creator of the Bailey Electric; he took over his father’s carriage company in 1887. Bailey is also known for inventing window glass channel, which prevented windows from rattling while driving.

The Bailey was $2,000 to $2,600 to purchase and cost 1 cent per mile to drive. Thomas Alvin Edison even sang the Bailey’s praises, stating that it was the most suitable car for his battery. Another accomplishment for this automobile was being the first electric car to travel 1500 miles from Boston to New York City to Chicago, going 21.5 mph. In all that time the car did not require any repairs or replacements, a great feat for any car at this time.​

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index, the dollar experienced an average inflation rate of 3.01% per year from 1908 to 2017. i.e., prices in 2017 dollars are 2440.9% higher than prices in 1908. That implies that the Bailey would be priced between $48,800 and $63,500 and cost about 24.4-cents per mile to drive.

I am not sure how Mrs. Anderson re-charged the car's battery during the trip from Boston to New York and Chicago, but I will ask next time I am at the museum. (By 1908, electricity was ubiquitous in urban areas and much of it was still direct current which would have made charging fairly straightforward.)

There is more information about the Bailey Electric on the Early American Automobiles web site, including this information:

The Bailey electric is equipped with two different sizes of Edison battery, and with a 40 cell A4 equipment the car will run 75 to 125 miles according of course to the service and the road conditions. This equipment weighs 540 pounds. With the 54 cell A-i type Edison battery the car will run 100 to 150 miles on one battery charge. The normal speed is about 20 miles an hour and for a vehicle designed for the service such as the Bailey is intended for, town and suburban work, this is sufficiently high.​

The vehicle used a 48-volt or 60-volt DC motor, depending upon the model.

 

The bottom line to this long and very informative thread is this.......

It can be done!

 

If true, then electricity was really expensive then.

 

Well, they already did that

 

This is where the number-crunchers and elecrical engineers come out of the woodwork and start a traditional internet flame war. Without starting such war, Oniki's comment made me try to do some very gross "back-of-the-envelope" estimating:

The Bailey had a 2.5-horsepower electric motor. 1 hp = 745 watts. (I have no idea whether the 2.5 hp motor was rated on input power or output power, or whether there should be any adjustment for efficiency. Bailey also made versions of its cars with motors as large as 7hp.)

2.5 hp running for an hour at 745 watts per hp = 1.862 kwh.

If the car averages 20 miles in that hour, it will use 1.862 kwh / 20 miles, or 0.093 kwh per mile.

At 1-cent per mile, that works out to 0.093 kwh per $0.01. To figure the cost of the electricity, we calculate the inverse as $/kwh which works out to $0.1075, or about 11-cents per kwh in 1908.

Using the same CPI adjustment factor of 24.4, that works out to $2.63 per kwh -- which sounds awful by today's standards but is consistent with the rapidly declining cost of electricity throughout the 20th century. Up until the 1970s, with the oil price shocks and the environmental movement, electric utilities used to advertise how much less expensive power had become with the hope of increasing consumer usage and demand.

As noted above, this is a rough estimate and does not take into account the efficiency of the battery and its charging process or any characteristics of the electric motor. The only purpose of the calculation is to see if the 1-cent per mile is at all reasonable.

I did not attempt any serious research, but found one reference to the historic price of electricity in that era: "Pacific Power Company in Portland Oregon (USA) says in 1910 they charged 15 to 20 cents a kilowatt-hour." It is likely the cost of electricity in the Boston area, where Larz and Isabel Anderson lived, was more-or-less consistent with this price.



Of course, the Andersons were fabulously wealthy and true automotive aficionados. It is their personal collection of their own family's motorcars which makes up the core collection of the Lars Anderson Auto Museum. The museum is housed in the carriage house (shown above) of their former estate. I doubt that Isabel Anderson spent much time worrying about the cost of electricity.

 

^ THAT is a carriage house?

EDIT: I just visited the website. Holy moly! I want to visit that place. Next Mass. vacation, this will be a must see.

 

IIRC GM were the ones that sold Toyota’s early battery patents to big oil who then restricted their use in vehicles.

 

Hmmm... Kinda makes you wonder how far a Prius Prime will go in EV mode entirely at 20MPH! Not what it was designed for, but...

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I am sure our snail @HPrimeAdvanced can test.

 

It also also a time when transmission lines, the electrical grid, was being put up. I remain a hydrogen skeptic but this also describes another part of the high hydrogen cost.

Bob Wilson

ps. Kudos on doing the math.

 

And of course, as Tesla pointed out, transmitting DC over any meaningful distance is very inefficient.

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i can attest to a 50% increase over the epa rating of 11 miles in the pip.
but there is an early degradation to li-on batteries that prime owners haven't experienced yet. in a couple years, the board will be filled with 'i used to get, and now i only get' complaints.