A majority of auto executives still think battery electric cars will fail, survey says

Source?

The reason I ask is "efficient way" needs to be quantified. Hydrolysis is notoriously inefficient and fuel cells not that great either. In contrast, round trip through batteries is relatively better. So I'm curious what is claimed.

Bob Wilson

 

Here's how.

FC =800-1000Wh/kg while batteries are 200-250Wh/kg.

40 mile plug in hybrid results is 2/3-3/4 of all vehicle miles traveled on batteries.

Battery efficiency = 85% FC efficiency = 35%.

2/3 of all losses are rolling friction and acceleration losses (i.e. mass related).

450 mile total range.

The battery ends up weighing way more because they have such poor energy density. All that rolling friction and acceleration loss gets added to all miles driven by the ev. Meanwhile, all those FC losses are only added to 1/4 to 1/3 of all miles.

You end up at about a tie - rolling and acceleration losses for all miles is about the same as round trip losses for 1/4-1/3 of all miles.

 

Funny

For starters, the combined city/highway EPA MPGe of the LR Tesla Model 3 is almost double that of the Honda or Toyota FCVs.
Then you should take into account the losses from converting PV for wind electricity into H2. Oh, about 2/3rds.

Quick arithmetic ... .... you are about 6x off.

 

What I find interesting is the assumption that the CNG ICE has an efficiency of only 16%. Isn't the Prius something like 40% peak efficiency? If we assume average efficiency of a CNG Prius is 32%, because the ICE isn't running where it would be very inefficient, we can double the range and go 350 miles. ICE hybrid for the win!

 

Producing a car that the oil companies cannot profit from is a hard sell politically.

 

did look it up.. why don't you? the site to use is Google

quick workup from quora

Let's do the math.

The US burned 133 billion gallons gasoline in 2012. I'm going to ignore diesel vehicles because the majority of diesel burned in the US is in heavy vehicles where battery-electric drivetrains are not a practical option.
How much gasoline does the United States consume?

The average thermal energy content in gasoline is 33.41 KWh/gallon.
Gasoline gallon equivalent

This gives 4,443 TWh of thermal power going to gasoline road vehicles in the US per year. If we assume electric vehicles use energy with 4x the efficiency of gasoline vehicles (a reasonable round number) then it would take 1,111 TWh of electrical energy to replace that gasoline energy.

US electricity consumption in 2011 was 3882 TWh.
International Energy Statistics

So the increase in yearly electricity demand would be ~29%.

 

Back to second grade for you, if that's your arithmetic.

Do the actual math, if you can.

 

How much electric supply capacity is needed to keep U.S. electricity grids reliable? - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

there's not a lot of spare capacity in the grid. certainly not %30.

and it doesn't matter when you charge... that's a total energy use required. the grid would have to grow %30 bigger if we went all electric.

certainly it can happen, but building power plants takes decades once you get passed all the permit challenges, etc.

Hydrogen is ultimately the way to go.

 

It's not Google, it's EIA.

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Data

Net generation (million kilowatt hours): 4,076,827 (2016)

SAS Output

Generator nameplate capacity: 1,177,183.3 (2016)

Capacity factor = 4076827 / (1177.183 * 8760) = 39.5%

So, the generation in the US is being used at an average of 39.5% of its capacity. Now, it could never reach 100% but 60-70% is not out of the question if demand side management is employed to control when the energy is consumed (i.e. when you charge your car). The difference between 40% and 70% is about the amount of energy it would take to move every light vehicle in the entire country over every mile it covers.

And that's with today's installations.

As for transportation.

U.S. Product Supplied for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

Finished Petroleum Products: 17,147

Motor gasoline: 9,317

Distillate Fuel Oil (15 ppm and under Sulfur also known as Diesel fuel but also including fuel oil): 3,692

Hmmm...I guess heavy trucks aren't using the vast majority of the energy.

 

You don't know what you're talking about. Spare capacity (as I just showed above) is more like 75% and it does matter when you charge - a lot.

How many utility control centers have you visited? How many electricity dispatchers have you talked to about their job? How much minute-for-minute energy analysis have you done? I've done tons and tons.

 

It is. I never said the exercise required anything but trivial arithmetic.

 

It requires more than you did, because you did it entirely wrong.

 

Uh huh.

While you have been jawing, I found reports of electrolysis efficiency of ~ 67%. So perhaps your preferred FCV is only 4x worse than a BEV, although I don't know what other energy costs are involved.

 

You still aren't doing the math right. Go back and actually read post 82.

A majority of auto executives still think battery electric cars will fail, survey says | Page 5 | PriusChat

 

Be careful, MPGe is not a good metric...more something to make BEV sound good. I personally feel if we knew how much CO2 BEV's made, which Tesla and GM may know from the their internal secret data, it may not look so good especially in Northeast.

 

Here is another analysis using the same approach:
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Toyota Mirai Energy Efficiency Compared TO BEVs

Summary:
60 kWh electricity powers a FCV about 67 miles. Call it 1.1 mile/kwh electricity
I'll take the 60 kWh electricity from the meter and power a Tesla Model 3, thank you very much.