Featured Toyota Prius Prime Will Likely Be The First Plug-in Hybrid To Outsell Chevy Volt

that was intuitive. but one less click than the chevy site.

 

Here you go:

Bob Wilson

 

^ Bob, great chart!

 

Found the Volt in one click.

The Prime came up at Toyota's site also with one click.

 

The gen1 had a 16.x kWh pack, the gen2 went to a 18.y kWh one. Though higher capacity, the gen2 pack is lighter and smaller.

I'll say that a 50 mile range is a good target for a PHEV with the Volt's design goals. GM could have cut the gen2's pack by about 2kWh, and the range would dip below the 50 mark. I would not call that bad, but a 50+ looks better for marketing. Then considering the size improvements in the new pack, I don't think dropping the capacity would help with the car's interior space at all; the +1 fifth seat will still be cramped, just slightly less so. Going below 16kWh will get the extra space, with a reduction range of course. The negative there is that the federal credit is likely worth more than the battery costs saved.

The Volt is built upon the Cruze platform, and the US is now getting the Cruze hatchback. Making a Volt wagon would not be a major endeavor. It would have improved rear headroom, and more cargo space. The question is if that will make up for the reduced range and efficiency to consumers. Then there is the CT-6 PHEV using the same system as the Volt, so a larger PHEV car is a possibility. The issue with both approaches is that they are still cars in a market that wants SUVs.

GM is experimenting with diesel for the Cruze, so I don't see a hybrid option coming soon. Now, that Volt wagon with a crossover facelift is something we might see. It would be around the size of the Niro and C-HR. It won't be called a volt though. For it, I see GM just keeping it a C segment car while continuing to make improvements to it. Being in the the segment with the Cruze and Corolla, don't expect major size increases.

For trips over 100 miles, we'll be in an ICE Camry.
I'd love a Clarity PHEV. With that in our stable, the remaining Camry or Sonic will likely die from neglect.
It's EV range is 47 miles at 110mpge, and EPA ratings for hybrid mode are 44mpg city/40mpg highway/42mpg combined.

 

More space is being debuted with voltec in the 2018 clarity phev. GM is working with Honda on both phevs and fuel cell vehicles. It will be interesting how the clarity does. Honda is using an atkinsonized fit engine and some of the parts from the hybrid accord.

The primary driver of the prime outselling voltec designs seems to be price. Both the clarity phev and volt are based on low volume designs, while the prime is based on the high volume new tgnv prius. The prime has engineering compromises based on its lineage, but these also provide a much lower cost. We also have hatchback versus trunk, but the clarity's fuel cell legacy provides a large trunk (extra space when you don't have those huge hydrogen tanks). Given the primes resemblance to the popular prius, and much lower price than the clarity and volt, I would expect it will do great, as long as toyota supplies dealers, and dealers get properely trained.

IMHO a ground up high volume design would be best. That would probably carry a liquid cooled skate board pack as a structural member of the chassis and a rear engine awd model. That would take some elements from the i3, but the volt/clarity pack size and perhaps the accord/prius/volt hybrid system, I'm not sure the best hybrid design but on the rear axle. Why rear engine? This is a less expensive way to design the vehicle, heat from the exhaust won't be a design consideration, as the battery pack would be forward of it. If its in a honda, I would expect cutting down the 1.5 L in the accord to a 1.1L 3 cylinder miller cycle would save space and make it very efficient in highway driving. A front motor could be tuned for high efficiency at highway speeds, while the rear motor high efficiency in stop and go driving and acceleration. A 16 kwh pack should weigh slightly less than 200 lbs in 2023. IMHO a midsize hatchback like the prime is not the sweet spot in the US or China, which should be the big markets for plug-ins (they are the biggest markets for all cars). Probably a midsized sedan with a trunk, and a crossover with cargo space (maybe smaller and more aerodynamic than the rav4/crv class) would be a good platform to design on. The TGNV that the prime is based on can probably do that class of car, but not rear engine/flat battery pack.

 

2017 Chevrolet Volt Premier vs. 2017 Toyota Prius Prime Advanced – Comparison Test – Car and Driver

 

Ordinary shoppers just plain will not care. They aren't enthusiasts. They're normal consumers looking for the sabe formula Toyota has always delivered.

 

care about what ....... buying hybrids? Plugins?
Every time gas prices hike up to ~ $4 more & more care about buying hybrid or plug-in. What's most telling to me - from Bob's chart;



It appears you can order/obtain similar features on both cars, & if your round trips are just under 100 miles, the 2 vehicles are matched pretty even, MPG wise. & during that nearly 100 miles, if that round trip is your average daily druve, (& no destination charge available, or insufficient time upon arrival/departure) - the Volt (presuming clean electricity source - which is the case in areas they sell best/quantity wise) is the cleaner of the 2 vehicles .... If most of your traveling remains under that distance.
Also, CARB States require 10yr 150k miles warranty on hybrid systems, but shorter warranties on the ice. With the ice potentially running much less time, it stands to reason the ice running the least will last much longer past warranties end. I would think from that rationale (presumes buyer does their homework) , the car buyer that is regularly driving >100 miles would thus want to buy the Prius - & sub 100 mile regular Journeys Woods more likely consider the volt.
.

 

PERFORMANCE !!!

ENTHUSIAST MAGAZINES ARE TERRIBLE REPRESENTATION OF MAINSTREAM PURCHASE PRIORITIES.

That link clearly didn't fit the context of the discussion, nor did your reply.

 

defining an ev buyer from an enthusiast might be difficult. who are the people buying primes, volts, ionique's, leaves, bolts and tesla's? can they be put in a box?

 

To progress beyond early adopters, the vehicles must appeal to a wider audience.

That means a very different approach for this stage...

SM-G920V ?

 

The issue with a series hybrid like the i3 REx is the lower highway fuel efficiency, and the Volt already gets beat up on its hybrid efficiency. It'll need to be a through the road hybrid, or have something like Honda's dual motor system for the rear axle to get the skateboard pack, or a larger battery to get the EV range up to the point where the lower efficiency becomes less of a buyer's concern.

The designer's also need to embrace the front trunk to make up for any lost space to the ICE in the rear.

Then regulations could be a hinderance. I like the i3 Rex concept when it has Euro spec operation, and I actually thought this was what GM planned on the first announcement of the Volt. CARB has cobbled it though for the US to the point that owners are suing BMW for having the car operate as CARB intended.

We know a portion of plug in buyers didn't own a hybrid before. The plug in segment is also growing faster rate than hybrids did, and their sales aren't as tied to fuel prices as hybrids are. And plug in prices are coming down.

Or just offering a different model for the wider appeal.

In hindsight, it is obvious GM wasn't planning on the Volt itself in becoming wide appealing. It is a C-segment car after all. Fine for a single person, or as a secondary car for a household, but won't work as the family hauler. Honestly, the Prius is on the small size for American tastes in that regard. Otherwise, we'd be buying more Corollas than Camries.

Wider appeal for the Volt means approaching the Malibu in size while also lowering the price. Which wouldn't be a bad idea if the people hadn't said they want tall wagons.

 

No one's going to believe that greenwash.

Even before it was rolled out, some of us were screaming from the rafters that it was going to be a niche vehicle. With those performance specs, it was clearly not aimed at the mainstream audience. Concerns of "trophy mentality" clouding direction emerged right from the very start. The design was unrealistic for mass appeal.

There isn't basis for a hindsight claim. There is an abundance of evidence confirming Gen-1 would be stuck as a specialty offering. Gen-2 made that bad situation even worse.

GM knew all along it could exploit the opportunity of tax-credits for reputation building, rather than actually delivering something for ordinary consumers... their own loyal customers simply looking for a green option to replaced their aging GM vehicle.

 

The tax credits helped GM, Nissan, and Tesla come to market with a plug in offering. Which gave incentive to invest in improving the batteries and the infrastructure to mass produce them for cars. Without them taking the initiative the credits enabled, battery costs would not have dropped to allow the Prime's current pricing. Estimated and claimed battery pricing per kWh ran as high as $900 to $1200. Now it is likely less than what Toyota pays for NiMH.

Exploiting the credits would be offering a BEV in a single state, with production limited to 3000 units, while reneging on media drawing plans of a nationwide rollout on what should have been an affordable BEV. I'll be glad if the tax credits end next year, because it will be cutting off the fence sitters.

 

The numbers are in and the prime crushed the volt by .... 132 units in November, bringing the prime a lead of 104 vehicles for the year in the US, or 0.6% for the year.
November 2017 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card

I believe some people were jumping up and down saying the range was too long and the price too expensive.
#1 selling plug in, in the US this year has been the model S at 22,085 - this is much more expensive and much longer range than a volt ;-) The volt has big competition at chevy dealers from the bolt coming in second at 20,070. The volt was a niche vehicle from the start. They learned from it, and have the better selling bolt, but the best selling plug-ins this year, will sell a tiny percentage compared to the tesla model 3 next year. That is the main stream high volume plug-in. The old champ, the nissan leaf which has sold 281,000 world wide. Still that early advantage has not lasted.
The Leaf Is the World’s Best-Selling Electric Car. Now, Nissan Needs to Catch Up With Tesla - Bloomberg

Worldwide Plug-In Car Sales Up 59% In May, Toyota Prius Prime and BYD Takes Top Spots
In January-may the leaf only beat the prime 21,888 - 20,824. The prime may be number one world wide right now, we don't know. Tesla is the number one seller of plug-ins world wide cobining the S/X/3. In January to may that combined number was 35,663, and we expect tesla to sell 65,000 more bevs from june through the end of the year.

Because the volt and bolt are only currently selling in the US, gm is far behind Tesla. I don't know how to take that trophy mentality statement. Toyota has strives to be the biggest seller of cars. It emphasises quantity and that trophy. I think the model 3 which is much more expensive to manufacture than the prime today, deserves the kudos. It changes the game. The prime simply tries to make something less expensive, while the mirai makes something no one asked for.

Its good to see the prime has joined the game. Lets forget past mistakes, and hope the next generation of these plug ins does even better.

 

...using them exclusively for conquest sales.

 

And how was that done?

GM crowed about buyers switching from a Prius, but these weren't a majority of Volt sales, and this behavior isn't some thing limited to a single brand or model.

 

Volt clearly wasn't targeted at GM shoppers.