Featured Report: the phase-out of gas and adoption of electric vehicles!

Mm, I wouldn't put money on it. Tough call, I do think it will happen unless better technology comes along. So much geopolitics involved, I'll go with 50 years.
Call me if I'm right!

 

China has special large population considerations, bazillion electric scooters is the way forward.
Europe has diesel pollution issues, and always felt gasoline autos are for wimps.
So there is some movement in those locations,
In USA I see it as gov't mandate driven it may someday approach 10% mandate like ethanol.

 

I think if we rephrase - phase out of diesel and gasoline only vehicles - then sure its plausible. IMHO city buses and light vehicles will fairly soon go natural gas/hybrid/phev/bev in US, China, and Japan. Say 15 years for the cross over to 50% of the market, but ICE running gasoline and other liquid fuels will be important.

 

California thinking of banning gas and diesel, too.
California is now also considering a ban on gas and diesel-powered cars | Electrek

 

I believe that if california were to attempt to ban gasoline cars they would be sued, and either lose, or congress would remove their waivers so that the ban could not go into effect. It is a divisive threat, and really does no american any good.

California under the rules can continue to subsidize bad projects and good, and can institute their cap and tax plan that continues to cause spikes in oil prices. A better thing, and one that most business people and environmentalists think would be better for californians would be to simply raise taxes in a predictable way on oil and petroleum products, and perhaps continue subsides for alternative cars on top of the federal incentives. I think only lobbiests like the way CARB goes about its business to favor fuel cells over phevs, and create hard to interpret cap and tax schemes that encourage bad decissions to avoid taxes.

 

or they might just succeed.

 

Or secede.

 

For light vehicles? Without any additional incentives, I would think 35-45 years.
With a price on carbon or other strong incentives, 25 years.

 

that too!

 

Another post I made- looks like CA will extend free HOV for Green and White (with limits), pending Gov signature. So I guess in the future if everyone has EV's that will be a bummer

 

that's where hydrogen comes into play.

 

Well CA politicians are afraid if they directly show the increased taxes on gasoline, motorists will get angry. So they prefer to have a hidden carbon tax not shown at the pump price, so that nobody can say what the amount is. Got to brave enough to just show the tax.

 

in most states, they're not even brave enough to raise the tax.

 

Or they raise it and blame each other.

 

We have seen that the cap and tax in europe has led to billions of dollars of fraud, and there are more cases than this. Multi-billion euro carbon-trading fraud trial opens in Paris - France 24

When california did partial energy deregulation, it was ripe for manipulation and cost rate payers huge sums. Part of it fraud, part of it lobbyed for in the system.

I don't think its brave to do the right thing. Its slimy to set up a system that is set up at the start for fraud and abuse.

 

And they wonder why some Brits want to leave Europe. To quote Sam Goldwin of MGM fame Exclude me in, or include me out! The EU was never very good at getting their budgets audited from inception.

 

I think the worldwide crossover point (50% electric vehicles) could potentially happen in 20 years or so, although I'd probably say more like 25-30 years from now. The way I see it, the transition is likely to be driven by a number of factors, each of which build off another.

1.) Government mandates and requirements start the ball rolling (now)
2.) Vehicle companies introduce a wide variety of 300+ mile range electric vehicles of different styles and price points (2-5 years)
3.) Rapid expansion of quick-charging electric vehicle charging stations (3-7 years)
4.) Battery advances make electric vehicles priced comparatively to gasoline vehicles (5-10 years)
5.) Increasing levels of vehicle autonomy and connectedness make electric cars more convenient (10-20 years)

 

and yet, california is the gold standard for environmental regulation. where would we be without it, texas?

 

Well there is no good answer here...but in the USA mass adoption of electric vehicles will happen whenever the economics make it so. This is how 'things change' in the USA. We are nowhere near that happening anytime soon.

First we need a reliable, nationwide electric fast recharging infrastructure...and even better batteries...which we are working on. Then we can worry about when electric vehicles will take over. For now, it seems like a pipe dream..especially considering the unfriendly political environment in the USA. In fact, we probably will take a step or two backwards in the next few years before continuing forward.

I think we are finally starting to move in the correct direction...however, there are still many, many powers at play to keep it from happening. For instance, the oil/gas industry isn't just going to roll over....and they wield considerable power.