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Featured CA Support for EVs

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Aug 27, 2017.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Source: Should California spend $3 billion to help people buy electric cars? - LA Times

    . . .
    In 2016, of the just over 2 million cars sold in the state, only 75,000 were pure-electric and plug-in hybrid cars. To date, out of 26 million cars and light trucks registered in California, just 315,000 are electric or plug-in hybrids.

    The California Legislature is pushing forward a bill that would double down on the rebate program. Sextuple down, in fact.

    If $449 million can’t do it, the thinking goes, maybe $3 billion will.

    That’s the essence of the plan that could lift state rebates from $2,500 to $10,000 or more for a compact electric car, making, for example, a Chevrolet Bolt EV electric car cost the same as a gasoline-driven Honda Civic.
    . . .

    One criticism is the price of a new Honda Civic is much lower than what new cars are selling. There is a gap that continues to shrink. Some are predicting that by 2020-2040, EVs will become price competitive with ICE cars.

    An interesting problem as Georgia not only ended their support but they've add tag fees to EVs. But concurrent is the question of where the money comes from?

    So I'm going to propose another approach:
    1. Lease new EVs - this encourages vehicle maintenance and upkeep to avoid end-of-lease fees while the lease fees pay off the high depreciation. State support for the lease should include advanced safety features. Say 2-3 months lease fees free.
    2. Support end-of-lease EVs - after 2-4 years of gentle, maintained driving, the EV will be 'like new' but now at affordable prices. For example, we're seeing the high $40k BMW i3-BEv in the sub-$20k range and low $50k BMW i3-REx in the low $20k range.
    A leased or purchased EV or PHEV will still be as efficient and low polluting as an owned one. But at the end of lease, it becomes an affordable, well maintained car in the price range of new cars.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  2. William Redoubt

    William Redoubt Senior Member

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    I think that we need to be careful when separating the "traditional" gas powered Hybrid from plug-in Hybrids. Significantly, the electricity from the grid is as polluting or more polluting than the same amount of electric power produced by ICEs. Cost (the typical consumers' main concern) is typically higher for plug power, as well.

    I would like to see a plug-in device to scan the internet for gasoline cost and calculate it offset vs. plug power and only charge the car when the cost is instantly lower. The PHEV would then effectively be a flex-fuel economy car. The cost for such a device would be minimal.
     
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    just do something, that's my new motto. i wish all states had more incentives for ev's. double down, triple down, trickle down, whatever it takes. and start putting fees and taxes on gas hogs, and continually raise gas taxes, while simultaneously subsidizing electric costs through smart chargers.
     
  4. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    The areas in which a plug in on the grid is dirtier than a Prius are areas in which plug ins aren't big sellers. Even then, the plug in is as dirty as a car getting 40mpg or more.
     
  5. William Redoubt

    William Redoubt Senior Member

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    My next Prius will be a Prime (or other PHEV) if there are tax incentives that lower MY overall purchase cost. Not because it is a better choice overall, but because it will be more advantageous to me. Taxing mileage (gas guzzlers) is very regressive and hurts the lower income citizens, so that does not seem fair, since these are the cars they can afford.
     
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  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    low income citizens are not required to drive guzzlers, there are affordable econocars.
     
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  7. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Not if gas prices go up.
     
  8. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    that's why you don't buy a guzzler in the first place. anyone with a guzzler, regardless of income level, has had the ample opportunity over the last several years, to sell at a profit, and buy an eco car which no one wants now.
     
  9. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    This is an often repeated diversionary statement. There are several aspects to this.

    First, we have both CO2 emissions and other (smog) emissions.
    In terms of CO2 it depends on the mix of source for the local grid but as another poster said it compares to rough;y 40 mpg. Most ICE cars are far below this since the average is about 25 mpg.

    Next we have all the other pollutants. Even if the amount was the same in an EV powered from the grid it would be a win to move all this away from the dense city centers. But it is really better than this...most EVs have an MPGe rating of around 100 or more. About 4x better than the typical 25 mpg car.

    The next thing is that when you buy an EV today you are not powering it from just today's electricity grid. You are powering it with the grid, as it improves over then next 10 or 15 years or more. The average car is 11 years old today. When you buy an ICE car today it will never get any cleaner...gasoline will stay the same and the car will pollute the same (or maybe worse) over the next 10 or 15 years or more.

    Finally, look at the big picture long term. ICE cars, on average get about 25 mpg. If everyone drove a Prius we'd be at about double that -- 50 mpg. This isn't going to happen since there are many people who need (or want) bigger cars for various reasons. Toyota has done a great job with the Prius, but the mpg hasn't really increased by that much over the 20 years since it first came out. Maybe 10 or 15% in total. We aren't going to get reasonable cars that get 75 or 100 mpg on gas. But even if we do we still have significant quantities of CO2 and other smog forming emissions. EVs get about 100 MPGe, but you can ignore that number. Instead think about how you get any car to or near zero CO2 with gas...the only way is infinitely high mpg...i.e. 100 mpg, 1000 mpg, etc. Never going to happen. Not even going to get close even given a few decades of what Toyota has done in the last 20 years.

    How do you get to zero CO2 with an EV? You can do it with a number of sources...solar, wind, hydro, nuclear, geothermal and possibly other methods.
    So, with gas we are about stuck at today's CO2 emission rate with some minor future improvements and possible changes based on getting some drivers to switch car sizes.
    With EVs there are numerous ways to improve the grid a get to zero CO2. You can even do it yourself at home with solar.
    (And yes, technically none of these are actually at zero since there is some relatively small amount of CO2 used to construct solar, wind, etc.)

    Mike
     
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  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    It might help to identify the study or source that makes this claim to check what data the authors had. Sad to say, an older study would not reflect current grid sources.

    For example, as of 2016: What is U.S. electricity generation by energy source? - FAQ - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Major energy sources and percent shares of U.S. electricity generation at utility-scale facilities in 2016:
    • Natural gas = 33.8%
    • Coal = 30.4%
    • Nuclear = 19.7%
    • Renewables (total) = 14.9%
      • Hydropower = 6.5%
      • Wind = 5.6%
      • Biomass = 1.5%
      • Solar = 0.9%
      • Geothermal = 0.4%
    • Petroleum = 0.6%
    • Other gases = 0.3%
    • Other nonrenewable sources = 0.3%
    • Pumped storage hydroelectricity = -0.2%4
    It hasn't always been this way so we'd like to see the date of the study since that has a major impact on the pollution: Energy sources have changed throughout the history of the United States - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
    [​IMG]
    If someone made their analysis in say 2010-2011 at peak coal, their analysis would reflect electrical generation sources that no longer exists.

    Of course we have enough online resources to do a 'back of the envelope' study using current data. Do we have any takers? @Trollbait? @William Redoubt?

    Of course it might be easier just to cite sources, critique the originals. Let me give an example: Reducing Pollution with Electric Vehicles | Department of Energy

    Plug-in electric vehicles (also known as electric cars or EVs) can help keep your town and your world clean. In general, EVs produce fewer emissions that contribute to climate change and smog than conventional vehicles.

    There are two general categories of vehicle emissions: direct and life cycle.

    Direct emissions are emitted through the tailpipe, through evaporation from the fuel system, and during the fueling process. Direct emissions include smog-forming pollutants (such as nitrogen oxides), other pollutants harmful to human health, and greenhouse gases (GHGs), primarily carbon dioxide. All-electric vehicles produce zero direct emissions, which specifically helps improve air quality in urban areas. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which have a gasoline engine in addition to an electric motor, produce evaporative emissions from the fuel system as well as tailpipe emissions when operating on gasoline. However, because most PHEVs are more efficient than comparable conventional vehicles, they still produce fewer tailpipe emissions even when relying on gasoline.

    Life cycle emissions include all emissions related to fuel and vehicle production, processing, distribution, use, and recycling/disposal. For example, for a conventional gasoline vehicle, emissions are produced when petroleum is extracted from the ground, refined to gasoline, distributed to stations, and burned in vehicles. Like direct emissions, life cycle emissions include a variety of harmful pollutants and GHGs.

    All vehicles produce substantial life cycle emissions, and calculating them is complex. However, EVs typically produce fewer life cycle emissions than conventional vehicles because most emissions are lower for electricity generation than burning gasoline or diesel. The exact amount of these emissions depends on your electricity mix, which varies by geographic location. While the U.S. national averages are above, look up your specific zip code’s electricity mix and EV emissionson the Alternative Fuels Data Center. EV drivers can further minimize their life cycle emissions by using electricity generated by non-polluting renewable sources like solar and wind. Learn how to buy renewable electricity or install it on your home at the EnergySaver site.

    So I reside in Alabama and using the link mentioned above:
    [​IMG]
    FYI, I'm not so enthused by using CO{2} as a pollutant since Alabama has no emissions enforcement. We have cars trailing blue smoke and others whose exhaust gives me a slight headache. Regardless, I can only document two known plug-in hybrids in Huntsville AL:
    model MPGe MPG %City to Total
    1 2014 BMW i3-REx 117 39 ~80% 101.4 MPG+MPGe = (7.8 + 93.6)
    2 2017 Prius Prime 133 54 ~80% 117.2 MPG+MPGe = (10.8 + 106.4)

    So is there anyone who advocates replacing these cars with some gasoline or diesel car to "reduce pollution?" It won't work in Alabama.

    Will these same people subsidize the Alabama, higher cost per mile of gasoline over electrical cost per mile? My electric miles run about $1.30/gal equivalent and the most recent prices gas prices have been running $2.05/gallon regular and $2.40/gallon premium.

    Perhaps the 'EVs are dirty' advocates would like to use this article: Electric Cars Are Not Necessarily Clean - Scientific American
    Or any of the articles cited by: Electric Vehicles - ScienceForSustainability

    I look forward to application of editorial comments: How To Debunk Every Anti-EV Argument, In 10 Easy Steps

    Bob Wilson
     
    #10 bwilson4web, Aug 28, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2017
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  11. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    I was referring to the map from here.
    Life Cycle Electric Vehicle Emissions (2015) | Union of Concerned Scientists
    The report came out in 2015, so the grid data is likely older.
    [​IMG]
    In terms of CO2 emissions, a plug in emits as much as an equivalent ICE car.

    For other emissions, it is going to depend on the electric plant. Natural gas in a converted ICE is cleaner than gasoline. The emissions get better in a more efficient power plant. The emissions will be higher from coal, specially old, grandfathered plants.

    No matter the plant fuel, it is easier to manage emissions at a central, stationary source than on numerous mobile ones. We can replace and upgrade the emission controls on a power plant, if we don't simply shut it down and replace with cleaner sources. That is not practical on a car, and cars emit more over time. The EPA emission bins allow more pollutants out of an older car. The petroleum source can also become dirtier over time. It takes more energy for tar sands and even fracking than just pumping light,sweat crude from the ground.

    Some might want to play with this: EV Emissions Tool | Union of Concerned Scientists
     
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  12. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Well we need to follow closely what is happening in CA.
    The problem is the HOV lanes are stuffed with Plug-Ins, and that free HOV incentive is a very strong sales incentive.
    So the reason for increasing $$$ rebate is probably to maintain sales if the HOV incentive is scaled back.

    I think we should hear soon (by Sept) what the CA legislature is doing on free HOV.
     
  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    make all the lanes hov, and allow plug ins only, with one special lane for bev's.;)
     
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  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Excellent! This is what we need to seek current data:
    Perfect since they continue to update the report: Cleaner Than Ever: Latest Numbers Show Electric Vehicle Advantage Is Growing | Union of Concerned Scientists

    . . .
    New analysis by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) shows that in 70 percent of the country, driving electric produces fewer emissions than driving a traditional gasoline car that gets 50 miles to the gallon. On average, today’s electric vehicles are as clean as gasoline cars that get 73 miles to the gallon. That’s thanks in large part to significant improvements in power generation, with more regions cutting their use of coal and increasing investment in renewable energy sources like wind and solar.
    . . .

    So here is the map from the new analysis:
    New Numbers Are In and EVs Are Cleaner Than Ever - Union of Concerned Scientists


    [​IMG]
    Per their methodology, we looking a Prius mileage with a few exceptions in mostly, sparsely populated areas.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  15. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    If I'm reading the graph right...since the average (across all states) is ~25 mpg for gas cars, there is no place where the average car is better than the average EV.
    Good, better, best needs to be updated.

    Mike
     
  16. William Redoubt

    William Redoubt Senior Member

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    As I have stated before, the Union of Concerned Scientists is special interest group which is not a union and is not composed of concerned scientists. It is a fund raising group. Therefore, care should be taken when using their research or tools.
     
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  17. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    well heck, you can just say that about anybody, and donald trump it all away, anytime you disagree.(y)
     
  18. William Redoubt

    William Redoubt Senior Member

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    Here's my suggestion. Join the Union of Concerned Scientists. It's free. Allow them to contact you via email. After 3 months, see what you think. My conclusion? They are a fund raising group, not composed of scientists at all. YMMV. But I doubt it.(y)
     
  19. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    could be, but the facts remain. renewable energy is the only known way to combat climate change. and we haven't figured out how to power cars cleanly any other way.
     
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  20. William Redoubt

    William Redoubt Senior Member

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    I think I jumped in with the thought that the Hybrid may be the most efficient way to power cars and should not be excluded when talking about BEVs. It certainly seems probable to me that Hybrids (like the Prius) may be more efficient than BEVs when all factors are considered. Personally, I have a sneaking sense that four day work weeks and telework might be the best way to reduce green house gas emissions from fossil fuels. That would be a potential 20% or more reduction in tailpipe emissions without any change in technology, infrastructure power generation.
     
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