Featured Model 3 has 310 mile range

And I would agree with you, wholeheartedly.
Your term "unrestricted" is also a misnomer.
Hybrids and gas cars are not "unrestricted". All vehicles have restrictions. The Prius can't carry three tons of bricks. Pickups can't get great efficiency, etc etc.
FOR ME our Tesla has no drawbacks for our needs. In the last 4 years (since being an EV only household) we have not once needed a gas vehicle.
So I understand that for you BEVs have restrictions which make them inconvenient right now.
But for me, hybrids and gas cars carry more inconvenience and restrictions than BEVs do.

 

The phrase holier-than-thou, reminds me of another. Wanting to pull a splinter out of another's eye while we have a plank hanging out of our own eye. Or maybe South Park made fun of us Prius drivers for no reason?


You KNOW you want my MPG ....

Yep. The infamous smug alert.
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Yup...as in restricting my breathing with all sorts of toxic fumes.

 

Modern hev's & phev's are so clean though, it's definately not appropriate to lump all cars with them ... the toxic ones, which are typically much older cars.
a dozen years ago we paid a premium to drive clean & efficient - and the majority condemned the premium as being not worth the benefit. A dozen years later, ev's face the same scrutiny .... cost versus benefit.
.

 

When you look at a new leaf or a bolt, you see some real benefits versus the gasoline (both regular ice and hybrid) competition. Both are more expensive compared to similar cars outside of extra subsidized california. Both seem to give better acceleration and handling feel along with ability to refill at home, compared to the similar ice, but come at the disadvantage of being PITA on longer trips. The leaf has sold better than any other bev through today world wide, but ... really the benefits aren't worth the costs for all but a tiny minority of buyers.

Then we have a much better of the cost/benefit tradeoff for the i3, volt, and prime. Here the volt is clearly better than the cruise in just about every way. This type of car is not loved by CARB in california like the short range bev or the fuel cell vehicle though, but ... the only compromise in these cars is by the car designers. Here the market is probably small only because of costs and the choice of the designs.

Then we come to the model 3. This car hits all the high notes. The type of vehicle - 5 passenger, 4 door sedan - is exactly the heart of the US car market, and the car most people that want a bev prefer. It is actually lower in cost than the competition in this size sports sedan - bmw 330i, mercedes c300, audi a4. For daily driving it may be a better sports sedan, and deposits seem to show that if tesla builds them it may outsell all these cars next year in the US. Reservations, and its hard to know what will happen after the government incentives go away, seem to be saying people are interested even if there target was the highly competitive regular 4 door sedan. This means tesla may eat into the camry/fusion/accord market. Cost/benefit appear to be on the model 3s side, but remember its new tech. The general market wants to see these on the road for years before they bite. If the model 3 can get to be king of midsized sedans when battery costs go down and charging network is bigger, we are talking camry numbers of around 400,000/year in the US and probably the same in china.

To get over 1 million cars a year tesla probably also needs to make a midsized SUV that is great. This could be even easier ;-) By the end of next year they will have the awd pack, electronics and chasis. Musk wants to correct his mistake with the model X, so it will be a clean sheet design on top of the base. Mid sized awd SUVs that don't really go off road, seem to be a great place for this drivetrain design. It should be easy to be more aerodynamic and better handling than the competition. Key will be keeping the costs down, but the creature comforts up.

 

My first car I bought was an EV long before they were popular.

My 1980's EV offers the same utility but higher energy efficiency than a Tesla because there are no logical charge points between me and the destinations I go to. My daily driving is handled by my 1981 comutacar just as it would be with a Tesla.
There are superchargers near me but that's totally useless since I could not charge at the destination.

The Tesla might add 5% more electric motivation over my BEV and Volt combo but I would still be out on gas during my twice a month road trips.

This situation is the same today has its always been and up north, unlikely to change much

So for me the Tesla offers no advantage and no cost savings (TCO) over what I already drive.

 

A Tesla, even the lowest priced one, is rarely going to be a TCO leader for most people. However, not having to hassle with a dealer, owning one of the safest cars on the road, and having autopilot are hard to factor into TCO spreadsheets.

 

Congratulations on being a Electric vehicle pioneer. I never heard of comutacar before, but on looking it up, it was the most successful BEV in the US until the leaf. I'm glad it has worked for you for over 3 1/2 decades. Different choices for different lifestyles.

The gen I volt appeared on some surveys to be driven as many electric miles as the gen I leaf, the volt added gasoline miles, and data showed volts were being charged multiple times a day. That appears to give more utility for similar electric miles but too little range. GM added battery and milage to the gen II volt, so even a better combination for those that take multiple long trips a year.

I don't think you can get much lower tco than from a fully depreciated and paid for bev. No tesla is going to be about lowest tco. Its a bright shiny object that strives to be the best, not the least expensive. Although it is less expensive than gasoline cars in its class when fuel costs are considered, even without tax credits.

No advantage though? 0-60 in 5.6 seconds, comfortable room for 5, doesn't need to be charged every day, autopilot. Maybe no advantage for you, but these are advantages more many of us.

I'm sure you have made the best choice for you, and the volt is the best choice for many. There are however advantages for many of us with a tesla.

 

I am experiencing computer issues .... so I was only to just scan the last bunch of pages. Perhaps this has been covered already.

Maverick in Utah and Nevada just announced they are installing high speed chargers in their stations. There are Mavericks on "every corner" in the west. So that should provide some relief from fuel anxieties. Competition will require that others follow ... until soon, every gas station will provide chargers.

Last week (on the History channel) there was a 3 part series on the development of the automobile. (I have only seen the first). The first part concentrated on Henry Ford, William Durant, Walter Chrysler, the Dodge Brothers, and race car driver Chevrolet. The early days were not that easy .... the manufacturers (like today except for Tesla) were not interested in providing fuels for their creations. There was fuel anxieties then as well. I could not help but think there were many parallels with today.

Charging stations will fee provided everywhere: the EV (IMHO) is the way of the future; diesel autos will recede; natural gas and hydrogen will always be very small segment of the market. In Nevada, there are solar farms that are thousands of acres large; many homes are installing solar; every home will be built with 240 in the garage .......... hotels will install chargers if they want to survive. Battery technology will continue to improve; I'm waiting and watching to see how quickly it all develops .... I may not need anything larger than the 220 Tesla???

 

kinda like cow poop for hydrogen?

 

i think this is big news! we don't get maverick out here.

 

I got no issue with distilling alcohol - as 1 couple we're friends w/in Montana have acres of cherries & make some of the best wine from it I've ever tasted. It would be a crime to distill it down further for auto fuel.
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I've heard if you go to the feed store, you can get 50 lb bags of cracked corn for about $10. That is pretty cheap alcohol as long as your, ahem, fueling still is efficient. Back when cars were new, I bet corn or rye or sugar was much less expensive to make into fuel.

I'm sure if its good tasting cherry wine, if you put a brandy head on that still, it will make a better cherry brandy. Do it right, and there is no way you put that in a vehicle for fuel.

 

My friend just bought a new 2017 Leaf for $11k out the door in Colorado.

I think I know 14 people with Ev's - 1 Tesla 90D, 1 Smart Ev, 12 Leaf's. None of them take them out of town, including the 90D driver.

But the heart of the US market is much, much cheaper cars - Corolla's and Camry's.

None of which are mainstream cars because of their cost. Few people can afford a $50-60k car, especially one that is a pain in the neck outside of driving around inside your town. And the $35k base-model is a ~200 mile car in good conditions, and probably more like 120 miles in the winter. No one here in Colorado is going to leave town and go to the mountains in such a limited range vehicle in the winter.

To me, the Model 3 is a little too small and way too expensive. If it had a 450 mile range for ~35k and was the size of a Prius then it would be interesting. I don't car a bit about the acceleration or sportiness. In fact, I'd prefer it didn't have that much power.

 

Well I guess there are some big subsidies in colorado, and some other places. Its not like that here. I'm suprised its not selling better if people can buy them that cheap, it seems like those that have 2 cars and don't mind the looks, but snap them up. I only know 3 BEV owners. All of them have model S's, and they all have taken them out of town, and use them as their primary car. 2 are part of multi-car households. So I stand corrected for more expensive on the leaf, on someplaces. Wow, $12,500 state and federal on bev's and phev's in colorado. That makes a premium tesla model 3, without autopilot $28,700 before tt&l in colorado, well until the middle of next year when the federal subsidies go down. Of course it won't get anymore model 3's in the country as they are sold out, until after the federal incentives, but may make a difference in 2019. Still a volt or leaf seem positively cheap with that extra $5K.

Well, I would not say much cheaper cars. F-series Pickup, Silverado, Ram Pickup, Camry, Corolla, Civic, CR-V, Rav4 - were the top sellers in that order last year. Those trucks and SUVs often sell for more than a model 3 will. Average new car transaction price is over $30,000 now. If musk is right about the average model 3 going for $42,000 before tt&l and incentives, it will be in the same ball park as those top selling vehicles even without the incentives for many when cost of fuel and maintenance are included. Those trucks are much more efficient than they were 20 years ago, but they are still thirsty beasts.

Most cars are not sold in colorado ;-) I do expect a lot of coloradeans to buy bevs in the next decade though, but they will likely go to the states where they are currently selling well. EPA had that 220 mile version going 495 on the test. The test derates for poor conditions, so no everyone will exceed the number in good conditions and reasonable speeds. Snow and cold definitely will knock it down more, as it does with all cars. Driving 80 mph is going to knock it down. If you recharge at 150 miles down, and the distance of an average american, you only need to average charging every 4 days. Sure if you are driving in snow and cold, you are going to plug-it in every night so you have a full charge and a warm car when you get in it. Not sure why you think people that can't afford a $60K car, will only buy a tesla if it has every option. Really will you only buy a tesla if it has a leather interior, glass roof, 12 way electronically adjustable seats, upgraded stereo, and wood trim. Will you not buy it if you can't have autopilot, but would buy a different car that doesn't have the option. If you are driving a car with 17" wheels or smaller now, will you feel the need to upgrade from 18" wheels because they aren't big enough. If a prius is good enough in these areas, then the base tesla is probably better, and no need to upgrade. You have $36,200 before incentives for a 220 mile version, or $45,200 for a 310 mile version +tt&l less incentives. It doesn't get close to the $60K you are claiming unless you get a much higher level of luxury. I for one will probably get autopilot ($5000) because its cool and may save me from speeding tickets and bad driving when I'm half asleep. I also may get the premium package, but I'm not sure until I see the standard package (which isn't out for a few months). I definitely am in good shape with the 220 mile version, and only expect to spend about 12 hours a year at super chargers, on heavy years of driving. Therefore $9K to spend a little less time at super chargers on long trips, is way too expensive. Say it saved me 6 hours a year (I don't think it will be that much) over 10 years that 60 hours, so the $9K is $150/hr that I would need to pay up front, not worth it.

Its bigger on the inside than a prius for passengers, and its wider but not as high. The frunk and trunk are plenty big for a 4 door sedan. Not sure where you would find it too small, except if its in cargo area, because you want a liftback instead (most american's prefer trunks). The car definitely is not for you. Understand most of your objections are silly. Tesla just went out and raised $1.5 Billion, because they need more money to upgrade the factory, to try and get people with new orders a car in a year. They aren't going to drop the price, when they can't build them fast enough. They aren't going to make the back seat less comfortable to be only as wide as a prius, or make it taller and hurt aerodynamic drag.

Its $9K more to get from 220 to 310 miles, and that includes good profit for tesla. A 450 mile car would have a much smaller market because of the size needed for the bigger pack today. My guess is it would cost another $29K versus the 220 mile vehicle, and that 220 is the one tesla expects to be the heavy volume leader. It also would mean they need a second gigafactory for batteries if they are going to produce enough cars, which means hitting up the capital markets again, right afterward. I don't think you really want a bev. You want a phev. how many miles do you drive a year? How many days do you drive over 200 miles? Take those days and add up the miles, subtract 200/day. Give me a number and I'll tell you how long it will take for battery tech to economically reach your requirements.

 

I'm going on a trip TOMORROW that will take me 450 miles between supercharger stations. Even if I alter my route to pass through supercharger stations (and waste more than two hours as a result), the shortest I can possibly make it is 335 miles between stations, all high-speed highway, all with a full car, and with a good possibility of getting stuck on the highway because of eclipse traffic. In other words, the longest range Tesla available, taking the most optimal route for a Tesla available, would almost certainly leave us stranded on the side of the road.

I'll never buy another car with a trunk. The last one was 1988. Liftbacks are far more useful, and I use that capability a couple times a week. Going to use it this afternoon, in fact.

In the four months I've had my Prime, the longest trip I've taken inside the city between available charging stations was 64 miles, and that was only once (and I could have charged if I had really needed to). The next longest was 35.5 miles. 212 miles is massive overkill for the city. I'd be between 85% and 100% charge 99% of the time if I never left the city. But I have yet to go on a single trip outside the city that was under 310 miles between chargers.

 

Many people transport cargo that is not suitable for trunks / frunks. My son regularly transports dogs to agility training and dog shows.

 

i look at the leaf and see old technology. the price isn't right, so i wait for future offerings. that's a big problem for plug in cars.

 

Yep.