Featured Model 3 has 310 mile range

I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm involved in this discussion because I think it's interesting to consider the future of electric cars in general. Of course you're correct that it's an educated guess, but for me that's what makes it fun.

An EV would not work for me either right now, so you're not alone in that. But I'm glad they work for others and hope in the future they will be practical for me. Until then, I'm very happy with my Prius, and I'm glad you like yours as well.

 

It isn't just the number of gas stations that makes the ICE or Hybrid so convenient to refuel, it is the number of pumps. Typically, when I exit an interstate, I'll have a choice of 4 to 6 stations with the bigger stations having 12 to 24 pumps. And the big interstate stations have covered pump islands for my convenience when refueling. None of these pumps suffer rate of fueling degradation when a half dozen more cars/trucks show up and start pumping simultaneously. Most of these pumps will not be occupied by a single vehicle for more than 15 minutes even if they are inside shopping. Most for 5 minutes max. All of these pump nozzles are compatible with ICE cars of every manufacturer. (exceptions for leaded fuel cars and high-octane or diesel needs perhaps) In my small town, prices vary perhaps 4% between stations. So I can make an economics based choice.

In my small town of ~30k folks, there are 52 gas stations listed. I'm sure some are 2 pump stations, but some are 16s. If you say the average is 6, that creates 300 pumps. 1 for every 100 folks. Now deduct kids, those unable to drive, etc. I'd guess one for every 60.

I think a proper metric is number of pumps versus number of simultaneous full-rate public charging connections that are compatible with a specific car.

I think charging stations will eventually go in existing gas stations. Gas stations have taken lots of the convenient, obvious, valuable real estate just off interstate interchanges or on city streets that are zoned for this type use. I'd think it worth while for the convenience store operators already hooked up with gas stations since they make most of their money on non-gas sales and the length of charge would drive people inside to buy at their inflated prices.

 

There, fixed that for you

 

You raise good points.
I will raise another.
Another important factor is that plug-in vehicles need refueling about 20% as often as gas.
Most charging (90%) for Tesla vehicles is done at home or work. So where a gas car would get 100% of its fuel at a gas station, bevs only need about 10% refueling at a public charge station.
The above is, ofcours, an average. Some people can't charge at home or work at this point. Others do 98% of their charging at home or work.
I mentioned 80% to be conservative as I believe more multi-house unit owners will make the move in the future as the infrastructure continues to grow.

 

i think it's the number of gas stations. on long journeys, the more there are, the easier it is to find one.
for chargers, this is important. but even then, the number of charging stations and speed of charge are important.

 

I would like to raise a different question. One of economy. I think this is a very under-discussed topic for EVs. Maybe I have missed this, but how much does it cost to drive a mile in a given EV. Let's take Tesla Model S, since that has been out for a while. Or any other vehicle for which the data is widely known. Let's assume cost of electricity as US average, which is around $0.12/kWH. How many miles can be covered per kWhr. There may be a more appropriate metric, I don't know. But this is something I do not see discussed much at all. We all talk about fuel economy of our Prii, but what about the "fuel" economy of the EVs? Are they more or less economic than an average Prius at say 40 MPG (I know, low, but I want to be conservative here) and US average gas price of $2.35/gallon. Based on that Prius can go 40 miles for $2.35. What about Tesla S or another well-known vehicle? I am curious.

 

there are lots of threads and discussions here, if you search the ev forums. but let's not assume electricity is 12 cents/kwh,because it ranges from 6 to 24 cents around the country, and of course, some have solar panels, and others plug in for free.
that rarely happens with gasoline.
for your question, look for threads with the title 'breakeven point between gas and electricity' or similar.

 

I was not talking about what it cost to an individual. I was talking about what EV consumes in $$ per mile vs. a non-EV (a Prius in particular, but not necessarily limited to that). Since EVs are way more efficient than even the best of hybrids (lots fewer systems on board than an ICE requires), my hunch tells me that EVs consume way less $$ per mile in energy. I know it's hard to compare with electricity prices ranging wider than gas prices, this is why I took US averages for this comparison.

Looking at Tesla Model S with a 100 kWH battery promising 315 mile range, I can calculate a rate of 3.15 mile/kWh at $0.12/kWH we can say that 26.25 miles per $1 is the cost of driving such a car. And it would cost $1.52 to drive 40 miles, whereas a Prius would cost $2.35. That's a significant difference! I realize this is just back of the napkin type calculation, but it's good to keep in mind.

 

agreed, i think you want some sort of efficiency comparison, without cost involved. kWh/100 miles has been used, but miles per kWh matches mpg for us troglodytes.
perhaps energy contained in gasoline vs electricity?
i think tesla is one of the least efficient ev's, and prime, i-3 and others more efficient. tesla is a very heavy car, which has its own advantages.

 

Yes, but comparing miles per kWH to MPG is not easy. At the end of the day it all comes down to $$$.

 

The current Prius is rated at 52 mpg by EPA. Many users get higher than that. If you are using averages you need to use 52 at a minimum not 40. Since my average fir 9k miles is over 60 and my gas is currently $2.07 my costs are less than your calculations.

 

yes, it surely does, but that's a different argument. that would be better for comparing on ev to another, i think.
the problem is, gas is $2.35 today and you buy a gasser, or ev, and tomorrow, it's $3.35, and the equation is upside down, but you can't change cars efficiently.

but with a plug in hybrid, you can choose your poison!

edit: (sorry, this was meant to follow post #291)

 

Some may have been rolling coal at us and our lungs. We promise not to do the same with electrons, so will spare them the shocking experience.

 

Which is exactly the purpose of MPGe:
And yes, the Tesla Model X and Model S are two of the least efficient EVs. The Model 3 will be one of the more efficient.

It actually is very easy on a pure efficiency basis. The MPGe rating does exactly that.
For price, that varies widely. I know of people in Texas that charged their cars for free at night. Then there are folks without solar in NJ or CA on a tiered rate that pay 20 or even 30 cents/kWh.

The U.S. average cost is shown in annual fuel cost on a Car's EPA sticker. It will show the fuel savings or extra cost compared to the average vehicle.

 

one fact that gets left out quickly, a substantial ratio of electric car owners utilize solar power. we recently added about 2kw's of pv unto our existing 7.1KW system ... And the newer panels we picked up for about 50¢/ watt - compared to our nearly $5/watt about 8 years ago (already paid for itself). The added 4 panels is so we can continue to 'refuel' for free. Can't do that with gas - until the day comes that you can build a oil derrick & refinery in your backyard - & get it EPA certified. I'm sure my neighbors wouldn't mind if I did a little nighttime flaring.

That way the smoke won't show

.

 

Sure, but we have the stages of acceptance of a new innovation from Rodgers. 1) Innovators, 2) early adopters, 3) early majority, 4) late majority, 5) laggards. Sorry if technology innovation marketing is out of scope of prius chat, but ... here we are. Also these concepts were first mainstream in the 1960s, and others may have other ideas.

In plug-in cars we are still at the early adopter phase. For early adopters cool features like autopilot and the ability to charge at home often trump somethings like convenience to drive 1000 miles in an adult diper, because stopping too long might take time. The tesla charging network is also one of these adopter perks, but they don't have to be everywhere as they would be for a late adopter. Really tesla's manufacturing is growing about as fast as it can, so even if there were stations everywhere, I doubt they could build the cars fast enough to fill them. Toyota could not build hybrid cars fast enough in some years of the gen II prius, so dealers just marked them up more, which may have slowed adoption later on.

Hybrids in Japan followed the steps and are in the late majority phase, but in the US they haven't made it, and likely IMHO won't. Why? The innovations and cool stuff in the gen II prius, were not followed up. The early adopters moved on to plug-ins (in this thread both phevs and bevs). The volume which looked like it would hit early majority a decade ago, got stymied by lower gas prices.

I would say for enough charging stations in the US to get to early majority, they are being built fast enough and tesla's charging network - 170 miles in 30 minutes for a 310 mile model 3 - is probably fast enough. The late majority will take more, but in 5 years just with organic growth, I would expect at least the tesla network of bevs, and all makers phevs to be convenient enough for early majority. The key will be if cost reduction can happen that fast, to really start grabbing significant market share from ice vehicles. I think it can, with some government help by the way of higher oil taxes.

 

Another consideration when talking cost is depreciation.

Look at the depreciation on a Model S compared to a Prius. I've lost half my 5 year old Prius's cost in depreciation according to KBB but that loss is half the $ of depreciation I'd have suffered had I bought a Model S. My fuel cost has been less than 25% of my depreciation. So even at an electricity for charging cost of zero, I'm around 35% ahead on a 5 year cost. Granted the residual value of the S is more but over another 5 years...???

Depreciation and insurance for $50k+ cars are the big cost drivers compared to maintenance and fuel.

So how will a Model 3 fare? It starts out at a much lower price than the S but a realistic set of options puts it above the cost of most cars. We really have no idea how it will depreciate but, as a car whose attraction is partially its uniqueness, will the existence in 5 years of similar cars from all the other manufacturers make it yesterdays toy?

We live in interesting times.

 

Depreciation is hit-&-miss. If you bought a new Porsche Hybrid Spyder you would have made over $100,000 selling it used - even after paying tax on it & license. The thing with new tech, there's a significant contingent that's willing to skew results by immediately dumping whatever they have - just so they can get the latest & greatest. Supply & demand. In a perfect world, we buy something 2 years used, then keep it for at least a decade.