Featured Model 3 has 310 mile range

sounds like you made a great choice w/ the Prius v. Congrats!
We looked at some of the first of them to arrive in the US, but the v windshield height & slope (& the car's low height) was such that my wife's fused neck could not negotiate egress & ingress easily. Too bad. But for many, the v is perfect or good enough. For her it would have been an unacceptable hassle.
That said - & for clarification purposes - & disregarding Tesla is more than doubling stations even as we speak, we've found the existing network's stalls to be no more than 70 miles apart ... but disregarding those 2 elements, when/if we're considering our next cross country stop, whether it's an emergency female pee time or to see how far we might consider going, we push on the steering wheel button & say, "navigate to closest supercharger". Bamm - it gets routed, & the map screen shows - with no distraction. Bam down to the minute, it tells us when we'll be there, & auto reroutes if there's a sudden gridlock situation down the road. And if one looks at the nation supercharger network, it's pretty easy to see they're mostly if not all located within ½ block or so of the freeway on/off ramp. No hunt necessary - go figure!
If it's a location with a dozen stalls, for example, your map will even show the empty & full stalls on your display screen. So in the rare cross country occasion that they're showing all full, or some being srerviced, most likely the next stop will be only be ⅓ full.
It's far from perfect for everyone, just like the v or a pickup or a hot rod or a Harley or a minivan - as long as our chosen choice works best in most situations for us the consumer ... it's all bliss - for both consumer & manufacturer.
.

 

still blissfully driving my pip. no bam chargers except the one in my garage.

 

Take a look at BMW and other luxury brand sites. The pricing structure is normal for the segment.

Those existed during the EV1's time.

 

They existed in the 70's Didek longranger comes to mind alone with all the air cooled VW pushers

 

I am far from being a hater or anti BEV...and as it relates to calling them niche vehicles...they are for now. It's not the numbers, but the percentage. As for freedom as it relates to my statement, BEVs are limited by infrastructure and time. Hybrids, like ICE are not. You can buy gas and diesel anywhere anytime and it takes minutes to get back on the road. For what it's worth, the Wife''s Corolla S is being replaced with a 2017 RAV4 Hybrid this weekend. That will put our household at 3 hybrids...and it's not to feel good about anything other than to have proven, extremely reliable, low TCO Toyota vehicles that can go to the corner store or across the country at a moments notice...unrestricted by time and distance. As with Elon, I applaud early adapter, but for "my other" car I choose a different kind of Toy.

 

You have said what a "niche" isn't, but still haven't said what it is.
So I can understand you when you use "niche" what is "niche" in your mind?

 

Generally a Niche vehicle is one placed in a small crowded segment of the market.

Vehicles priced similar to the true Model 3 price and on up into the millions,
make up
4-8% of the auto market combined depending on the year.
(high end sales vary a lot year to year)

There are thousands of vehicles in the small but lucrative $50k and up category.

The Model 3 is in a fraction of a fraction category over its price range and also due to it being a car.

The size of the market is very small much over $40k and very crowded, can Tesla make that market expand moving buyers to pay more than normal or will it cannibalize from other high end cars, or will it actually run out of steam satisfying some sort of pent up temporary demand?

We shall see.

 

cool maybe you don't believe the estimates, or don't know the hybrid numbers.
The toyota prius was introduced in 1997. It was not until 2009 that world wide sales got over 400,000 (404,200 estimated).
The tesla roadster was introduced in 2008 and the tesla model 3 is likely to sell world wide over 400,000 in 2019 - one less year, with a company that was just producing small numbers and without real staff or factories compared to toyota's deep pockets and Japanese government help. To me that is amazing. Sure the prius isn't the only hybrid, and tesla isn't the only bev maker. Worldwide plug-ins sold 777 thousands, that is a growth rate and projection that they will over take non-plug in hybrids before 2020. So yes, a low percentage, but the model S sells well for vehicles in its class, and the model 3 when the factory ramps up will sell well for cars in its class too. The model 3 is aimed at a mainstream not niche class of cars - the compact sports sedan. These get better mileage than their larger sports sedan brethren, and often handle better too. Combined they get around 27 mpg - so a model 3 will be less expensive when you include fuel and comparable options, even before tax credits and other incentives.

Compare Side-by-Side

Sure different choices for different people. To me the freedom to charge in my garage instead of pay big oil for gasoline is a big bonus. The longest road trip I would drive is new orleans, so even with the small pack the 500 miles are doable but not pleasant. Going farther I've chosen flight every time. Small pack is 130 miles charge for half an hour. If we guestimate 600 miles to be comfortable and start with 220, then the normally 7.5 hour trip without stops may add an extra hour and a half to the trip each way. Last time We stopped to eat. If its got to be fast I would fly or take anouther car. Say I do this trip 7 times in 5 years, its not much of my life to worry about. Definitely not compared to waiting at gas stations and grumbling. Spend another $9K and you can probably get by with 2 - 25 minute stops for a 500 mile new orleans trip. That would charge 170 miles in half an hour and start with 310 miles. You are going to stop for 20 minutes on this trip anyway, so that bigger pack just adds 30 minutes compared to a gas car. You easily save that in a few months of not having to go to gas stations.

BEV definitely is not for everyone. For many charging from wind at home at night - may look more like freedom, than the prius. It helps that the tesla looks good and accelerates fast

 

$1k for a color option is peanuts. I think I had to pay almost that to get white on my Toyota. Go price a Porsche PTS color. Paint to Sample. Maybe $6k.

What happens when the federal subsidy runs out? How many reservations will dry up in the quarter after the 200k cars are sold and it goes down to $3,750? Or a year after they run out and it goes to zero? Given the congress as it is for the next few years, what are the chances of an extension? Imagine giving the Model-X buyer a tax credit...how will that go over with the guy struggling to buy health insurance? We don't all live in states that give big rebates like CA. So how many reservations will get filled for the suddenly almost-luxury-priced 3?

We live in interesting times.

 

i don't think it's sudden. i thought i recalled talk of loaded models in the beginning, way back when they started taking reservations.

 

if the demand is there, it's a brilliant strategy. and not uncommon in the auto industry. when demand wanes, compared to production, lower cost packages or stripped models will become available.

 

The first Highlander hybrids on dealer lots were loaded to the gills Limiteds.

Along with the higher profits, starting with loaded cars also gives the production staff experience assembling the car with everything. Start with putting in high trim pieces that need more care in handling, and the workers with more likely apply the learned care to lower trim pieces later.

 

Sure, but what is the percentage threshold.
Is the Prius a niche vehicle? It is a very small percentage of all small cars and there are lots of other small vehicle makers in that segment. I wouldn't call a Prius, but you might, which helps me understand what people mean when they use that term.

I also wouldn't say the $40k plus market is "very small". Median vehicle price is something like $33k isn't it? I would guess $40k+ is at least 30% of the entire market? Sure, that isn't a majority, but I wouldn't express it as "very small".

I am certainly not arguing that Tesla makes more than a small number of cars. But the word "niche" seems to be used by many in a negative way. I am just trying to understand what is and isn't "niche".

 

think of it as a compliment, you're fortunate to own one.

 

LOL, thanks Bisco

I've always thought communication was best when it is clear though. Maybe this deserves it own thread?
I think I may have a good, easy to use standard though.

Sales rankings. Perhaps a niche vehicle is one that is ranked 50th (replace with any number you want) or below in sales?
Or 20th or below in its segment (trucks, cars, SUVs, etc)?

 

i'd be happy to have a $250,000. mercedes gullwing. even if it were the only one on the planet.

we've gone round and round on tesla sales. they are what they are. some think it's a positive thing, some think it's negative. but i suspect it has more to do with their point of view than the actual numbers.

 

Most vehicles are sold in an increasingly narrow band around and below the median price.

Remember the median price is really an average, if I sell one million dollar car and one $10,000 Vera's my median price is $505,000
You can understand then why what is described as the median price doesn't mean much and also why the high end is crowded despite low sales volumes.

What this means is over 3/4 of new vehicles sell for between $25,000-35,000 (again varies a lot but the large variance at the low end doesn't move the number much) despite a "median" of $33,000.

Car sale prices band along the bottom, the middle and the top (more or less) with few sales in the in between areas of the market.
The median price is more or less where it's at because "that one guy" bought an atypical car that washes out any meaning to the metric.

Normally Under 8% of vehicles sell for more than $50k, this is a more important number than the median.
(4-8% depending on year, and this is hard data you can easily find)

Most Model 3 sales are over $50k it's not hard to figure that the model 3 is in a very small market space occupied mainly by F150's of a type and bling SUV mobiles.

$40-$60k is a tough market space, too low for the high end and too high for the low end.

We will see if anyone moves up their morgage to enter this new price range.

 

And I am fine with that.
It was immensely helpful when John gave an actual number (60,000/annual).
I agree with earlier statements that percentages are more useful than numbers. I actually find I like using the sales ranking.
This way, it is easy to understand what they mean by "niche". In addition, something could be a niche of the entire market, but a significant part of a smaller market.

It is flexible, yet very clear.

 

To be clear, the median is not $33k. The median is probably much lower than this, but doesn't seem to be published anywhere. If someone has a median source, please post and link. $33k is the mean average and skewed upwards by a smaller number of premium prices vehicles.