Featured Model 3 has 310 mile range

I agree completely.
Some people started making wild speculations based on scant to no data, and are now disappointed.
Some examples are some who thought the larger range would only be about $5k while it turned out to be $9k.
Others had "figured out" that the range of the base model would be 250 miles (some even speculated 300).

I think these were a very small number, but they are a loud group

I've learned to just let them be wrong, as there are plenty that make wild speculations on the opposite side (e.g. "The car won't be built until 2019, if ever", etc). Convincing either group to alter their view, or accept their predictions just might not be right, is generally futile.
I don't think anyone that believed the HumVee was more environmentally kind than the Prius ever changed their mind either

 

If a few thousand model 3's are delivered this year and mass production for base cars is late 2018 and most cars delivered until 2019 are $50k +

Are the naysayers really wrong?

 

Yes. If someone states Tesla wont delivery any vehicles in 2017, and then Tesla does, then the statement Tesla won't deliver any is wrong.
You can move the goalposts if you want, the naysayers certainly do.

So, how to you define "mass production"? Is the Prine in "mass production"?
John defines it as 60,000 vehicles a year. If Tesla reaches their stated goal, they should reach that rate in December. By the end of 2018 their goal is to be at just over 40,000 a month. Does that qualify for your definition of mass production?

 

I'm excited that Tesla is trying to offer an electric car to a wider audience, but this pricing leaves a lot of room for some interesting competition from Detroit & Germany.

-- $9,000 Long Range Battery, good for 310 miles of range, 90 miles more than the stock 220-mile battery. If you get the bigger battery you can also launch from 0-60 more quickly, 5.1 seconds with the bigger battery as opposed to 5.6 with the smaller. Top speed also increases, hitting 140 mph instead of just 130.

-- $5,000 Premium Upgrades Package includes: heated seats, 12-way adjustable power front seats, steering column and side mirrors; premium audio, tinted glass roof with UV and IR protection; auto dimming, power-folding, heated side mirrors; LED fog lamps; and center console with covered storage and docking for two smartphones.

-- $5,000 Enhanced Autopilot that automatically matches speed with traffic, stays in a lane, changes lanes, transitions from one freeway to another, exits the freeway and self-parks.

-- $3,000 Full Self-Driving Capability: This is a future product that will drive the car from point to point with no action required by the driver. It’s not available at launch but will be at some unspecified future point.

-- $1,000 for your choice of three shades of metallic paint: midnight silver, deep blue, silver, pearl white; or multi-coat: pearl white or red. The standard color, like the original Model T, is black.

-- $1,500 for 19-inch Sport wheels. The base wheel is an 18-inch wheel called Aero.

 

what are you seeing from detroit and germany that compares at lower pricing? bolt looks great, but it's not a tesla.

 

VW Herbert Diess announcing their intention to spend $10 Billion over the next 5 years went as far as saying that “anything Tesla can do, we can surpass.”

Diess was speaking at what VW called its “first” annual press conference, he added about the EV market:

“We are confident that in this new world we will become a market leader,” he added. “[Tesla] is a competitor we take seriously. Tesla comes from a high-priced segment, however they are moving down,” Mr Diess said, referring to the $35,000 Model 3, which enters production this summer. “It’s our ambition, with our new architecture, to stop them there, to rein them in.”

________________________
Mark Reuss, GM executive vice president for product development, told reporters during a visit to Flint, Michigan:

“We know the customers would like to drive electric cars but are unwilling to pay any more for them. That’s why we’re going to be the first company to sell electric vehicles that people can afford at a profit.”

________________________
Dr. Andreas Wendt, head of BMW Group Plant Dingolfing, commented:

“Dingolfing has a lot of experience and expertise in ramping up complex products – making it the ideal location for production of the BMW iNEXT. With its pure-electric drive train, larger dimensions and new technologies, such as autonomous driving and digital connectivity, the BMW iNEXT will be a real innovation driver. We are proud to have the opportunity to build this car here in Dingolfing. This year, we will be celebrating BMW’s 50th anniversary in Lower Bavaria. For me, the BMW iNEXT clearly signals the start of a new era and our intention to make the next 50 years just as successful.”

Now a long-rumored all-electric version of its popular BMW 3 Series is reportedly going to be unveiled in September.

 

I'm looking forward to more competition.
That said, any of these guys could have squished Tesla like a bug by beating them to market with a car similar to the Model S prior to 2012.

I have been hearing talk of Tesla competitors for years, and the closest I have seen is a Bolt.
I believe once We get to 2020, Tesla is here to stay.

 

this coming from the fine folks who built a car with higher mileage than the Prius, & just as clean. Only it had the stink of diesel fraud smoke all over it ... & was all a hoax being committed for years .... & now they're being criminally fined billions - so they wana brag about all the billions as tho it's their idea ...
Dishonesty ... it doesn't get any better. You only suspect vw lies, when their lips are moving.
.

 

i'm talking competitors, not hot air. we have enough of that in d.c.

 

+1

I see the 220 mile premium package + autopilot compete very well with bmw 330i, The 330 mile premium package + autopilot compete well with the 340i. They are telsa model 3s are slightly cheaper than the similarly accelerating bmw 3 series (which was probably the goal) when equiped with similar equipment. Put in the tax credits and lower fueling costs versus being able to fill up faster on longer road trips, and the model 3 is very compelling. It will be 2020 before there are enough highway chargers to compete with the lower priced camry/accord/fusion/malibu/altima/sonata crowd the most popular with this size of sedan, but by then perhaps people will pay tesla a little more to pay big oil a lot less. Time will tell if the quality and reliability are there. Of course it will probably take more gigafactories and until 2020 for tesla to ramp production that high. 2018 production for all of us depositors is risky.

To me the 220 mile telsa 3 + premium + autopilot is the one to get. I'll probably have mine in less than a year, and I'll let you know how it is before I leave prius chat. Slight chance I keep the prius for muddy dog and camping duty ;-)

 

IIRC, there were some less optimistic voices that said Tesla may technically deliver the Model 3 on schedule (they did, with 30 vehicles delivered this month), but that they doubted $35k versions would be available in significant quantities for a good while, perhaps as long as until 2019. What is a significant quantity? Not sure. Maybe could say Prime level international production of the $35k optioned Model 3.

Like any manufacturer, Tesla wants to sell the highest optioned vehicles with the highest profit margins. Like Apple, they have the cachet to make a killing here. They will.

Also, there were those that suspected that very few getting ahold of the $35k version would be able to get the full $7.5k federal tax credit. Some employees and former Tesla owners will. Let's see about the newly initiated.

The model 3 is still on my short list to replace my PiP, but the dizzying options are too rich for my blood - I'm interested in the $35k base. Excited to test drive the vehicle.

 

ahh yes - gm - the company whose most infamous leader once said, "the Prius is a geek mobile" meaning that's the only person who would buy it. Never wanting to disprove that they finally know what's going on, they say the above gem, that (gm} "they" know that car customers don't want to pay more for electric vehicles .... even as Tesla is selling 100's of 1,000s of Model X's & Model S's for exactly that .... WAY more money - 6-figure prices. Yeah, they know what's going on alright. Wow. I guess they know the public doesn't want any infrastructure to go with their compact size electric car, too. No way to fight logic like that. Go gm.
.

 

A contrarian view:

Have you seen a $35k Model 3 yet? That isn't what what was being delivered to the first 30 owners/workers. Have you seen what compromises are made to make it at that price $35k point? Not even cruise control on the $35k version!

Look at the "as delivered" prices on any review cars. How many of the deposits will evaporate when potential buyers discover the ~$50k prices of 2017 Model 3s.

Tesla will lose money on every Model 3 made this year. And their production workers are asking for a union and a bigger piece of the pie.

 

Boooo! Tesla, booooo! Is that Better?

(if i may continue the silliness) You're right of course. Tesla may lose nearly ½ of their orders. That would only leave them what .... a ¼ million or so? (still way over Tesla's wildest expectations). Oh my, that'd leave Tesla with only a year or more of backlog to fill. Good point.
.

 

Contrarian views are fine, even good, but only when based on facts.
The base Model 3 will have the full self driving hardware installed. I would be surprised that there is no CC on the base. Do you have a reference? Sure, there won't be any lane keeping, but the lane warning and other safety aspects will be active.

No one has seen a $35k model yet as Tesla stated many months ago the first cars would have the larger battery pack. Mine with the shorter range is estimated to be delivered between December and February of next year.

Buyers have known for many months if not a year the first Model 3s would be one specific load-out with more options available in the coming months. Some may have gotten tired of waiting and have canceled. However, I doubt those numbers are very large.

Tesla loosing money of the first Model 3s built is no surprise. This has been stated by Tesla in quarterly reports. As production ramps up to full speed those margins will become positive.
"Workers" have not been asking for a union. Individuals have, but going union has so far been voted down by the majority of employees. The employees I know personally work their asses off, but get very well taken care of.

 

While I applaud and respect everything Mr. Musk has done to date approaching the average car buying market, these vehicles are still niche market products. The mean distance "most" people travel and price they are willing to pay are good benchmarks, but electric vehicles still limits "real" unrestricted travel to a cord without the infrastructure that gasoline and diesel already provides. Better put, the "average buyer" is not going to give up the "freedom" they already have. So my opinion is that electric vehicles in the foreseeable future will still be considered the other or additional feel good car...not a replacement. Hybrids however, can replace ICE at present without sacrificing freedom. Would be interesting to see the future awaiting our great-grand kids though.

 

Depends what is their model mix in the fall?
will it be half base half fully loaded (as matches the orders placed)
Or 1 out of 20?

I guarantee that Tesla will only make a specific percentage of black base cars regardless of demand.

I don't know of any automaker that has over a year waiting period for a specific car but moves you up the line if you spend more,

It's bad business and leaves I'll will once the early adopters get the car.

Also except under exceptional circumstances it's typical for "reservations" converting into sales at a 1/10 ratio to a 1/3 ratio, higher than that is unprecedented.

But then again Tesla Has a sales system that historically would be rejected since it's oriented to benefit the seller not the buyer
so maybe I will be surprised.

 

hmmmmm somewhat mysterious that bmw would pick this time to fling rumors about a bigger ev .....

BMW is rumored to unveil an all-electric 3 Series in September to compete with Tesla’s Model 3 | Electrek

Ok maybe not so mysterious ....

 

I guess the gen II prius is a niche vehicle as well then. I'm not sure what is making it niche? Volume - projected at over 200,000 / year with over 500,000 pre orders is not niche. 4 door midsize sedans are the most popular cars in america. Fill at home instead of having to go to the gas station in heat, rain, snow, cold - that sounds like a luxury to many home owners. Many people never go on road trips in there own car, and if its a family often are in the SUV not the sedan. Autopilot when your groggy or thinking too much about work or a fight with your spouse/parrent/child/coworker seems a positive boom ($5000 options)

Yep this won't sell like the F150. In 10 years when they have capacity to meet demand and battery prices have gone down, cars like this could definitely be the best sellers for people with 10-50 mile commutes, or those that want performance/luxury.

Sure today for less money you can get a corrola, elantra, sunshine, or focus (best selling cars worldwide). These are for the masses. For those that want something more .... the tesla model 3 may be the first mainstream BEV.