Featured The Internal Combustion Engine Will Survive Us All

anyone's guess at this point, and that's all they're doing. i wouldn't bet the farm either way, the targets move too quickly, and irrationally.

 

A little Forbes boosterism, I appreciate Toyota increasing ICE efficiency but it is not a 'winner take all contest.' Rather blending the strengths of two technologies is a win-win but it takes skilled engineers, not green eye-shade accountants (i.e. MBA).

If an accountant bought dinner for someone else it would be dirt, seasoned with bolvine fecal matter, and served in a sunny place.

Bob Wilson

 

True - it will.
As will cancer, perversion, aids, war, envy, pride, gluttony, [add your fail here], indigence, and foolishness.
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My opinion is Yes, and No.

From an efficiency standpoint alone the ICE has probably survived longer than it should already. But I think what that does not take into account is the fact that a lot of people want to sell gasoline. The massive infrastructure to obtain, create, distribute gasoline and for those connected with this infrastructure to profit from this reality, ensures the continuance of the ICE. So YES, I think the ICE is going to live on for a long time. BUT..NO...

It won't live forever. I expect improvements, in what we call an ICE, efficiency gains. But if you believe Oil is a finite resource? Then inevitably there is an end or point where availability and scarcity will force the death of an ICE based automotive industry. Eventually the entire fossil fuel based economy.
This may be a long way off. ...a long, long way off.

But another but...maybe not as far as some think.
Having driven a Prius, Hybrid, for 3 years, I think it's a great product in terms of efficiency. The machine has reached a point IMO where the benefit is great, and perceived compromise? Is mostly myth or BS.
But the truth is a Hybrid IS a ICE vehicle, just one that combines systems to create greater fuel efficiency.

Therefore I think what will eventually spell the death of what we call an ICE, is probably the increased cost of usage, due to oil scarcity, and the eventual evolution of something entirely different. Right now? That appears to be full electrics.
Being one system not two or more combined, they are conceivably cheaper to produce. Arguably simpler in total form than either an ICE or a Hybrid.
As benchmarks are reached in electric vehicle performance, and improvements in batteries in terms of recharge time, longevity. Plus a growing infrastructure that allows for long distance travel and recharging full electrics appears to be the early winner.

But all this I think is in the very, very early nearly pioneer stages. Discovery or innovation on many fronts could change the reality or timeline considerably. And this could be in a lot of different as of today unknown directions.
Improvements in efficiency directly and only with ICE could delay movement away from ICE engines.

In my lifetime alone, I've seen the nearly complete movement away from new engines having any Dino Oil recommendation. Most new ICE recommend usage of a light weight synthetic or at least a synthetic blend. Some will site better engine protection, but I would say that from the automaker perspective it is also the slight gains possible in fuel efficiency.

If "new" lubrication products combined with tweaked ICE design continue to push that margin...the life span of the stand alone ICE increases.

It's probably going to outlive me? But maybe not my 11 year old nephew.

 

Perhaps you are confused - MBA's don't wear green eye shades. Sorry for the directness of the link, but "car guys versus bean counters" was really a bob lutz excuse. Sheryl Sandberg is an MBA and has been quite successful at Facebook. Apple, Google, Facebook seem to have been able to hire many more MBAs than GM, but not fallen into there trap.
"Car Guys Versus Bean Counters" Is A Crock Of Shit - DailyKanban

Toyota, as I have dealt with them, seems to have a lot more bean counters than I understand GM did in what Lutz considered the bad old days. So given the example - you find that there are numerous complaints about ... ignition switch, an MBA is probably going to say, that is important, we better fix it fast. That was not in GM's culture. It did not get fixed until well after change of management and cost a lot more money. The problem with GM wasn't that they were buying cheaper lipstick to put on a pig, its that they decided to put lipstick on a pig in the first place.

Now given that the 3 biggest sellers of automobiles in the world are Toyota, VW, and GM and none of them have a good non-ice vehicle, I would say that Stanford economist is completely off by thinking that autos will turn around and away from the internal combustion engine in 20 years. Liquid fuels are just too damn convenient. New cars in 20 years may be mainly PHEVs and BEVs by then if battery prices continue down and oil prices go up as expected by then (either through demand or taxation). But I can't see long haul vehicles at least having a liquid fuel source, cost of quick charging at peak hours will not fall that fast. Sure the liquid may be lng, or methanol or cellulistic ethanol, but I would bet it still is a liquid fuel. Habits don't change that fast.

Say batteries are $100/kwh and it takes 100 kwh to give your SUV 200 mile range, and 250 kwh (extra weight means more) to give a 400 mile range. Would you rather pay that extra $15,000 for more batteries, or $10K for a range extender if methanol is $5/GGE? My bet is people will pay for the range extender with pollution control instead of the bigger battery.

Whoa, I've had accountants buy me very nice lunches. Of course they expensed it, but ... I don't know what that has to do with the ICE.

 

oil prices will never go higher than demand value.

 

Accountants never bought me dinner, salesmen did.

 

cockroaches will outlive us.

 

And I thought we could vote them out of office.

Bob Wilson

 

We can. But they still will outlive us.

Mike

 

One thing everyone seems to be missing is that an ICE doesn't necessarily need to be fueled by fossil fuels! It's true that it's the best way to do it now, but that doesn't mean we wont invent some mix of chemicals that do the same job, are renewable, and cleaner burning. The oil industry might actually want to switch over to something like that.

That said, when we finally have fully transmitted electricity, we wont need an ICE, it will never be as cheap or efficient as an electric motor that doesn't need an onboard battery. (Not in our lifetimes probably, but Telsa thought of it long ago!)