Featured Rice University paper on F150 vs Prius

Source: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/files/c8cb9e96/BI-Brief-061417-CES_Trucks.pdf

U.S. sales of large passenger vehicles have boomed for most of the past decade. Yet despite continued reliance on gasoline propulsion in the U.S. and a trend toward larger, more powerful vehicles, the 7.6%
rise in miles driven seen from February 2012 to February 2017 yielded a gasoline demand increase of only 3.8%.1 Better engine technology likely underpins much of the rising gasoline consumption efficiency on U.S. roads and the big, powerful pickups and SUVs cherished by many American drivers are at the center of the action.
. . . ​

Old news, we've known about the disproportionate effect of improving the efficiency of the least efficient vehicles. But it also brings up the 'problem of the commons.' If my neighbor chooses to commute to their business office in a crew-cab pickup, not my problem. Yet their 15 gallons per week slightly drives up the retail price of gasoline that I pay 15 gallons per month.

When working, I drove Prius and the last year, a BMW i3-REx with no expectation that anyone else would do the same. Understand I'm OK with a pickup with a few dents, rusty ball, and worn tires ... a truck that works on the weekend or at home. So I remain disappointed by 'urban cowboys' commuting in pristine 'commuter' pickup trucks.

Ford did some original work with the F-150 aluminum frame and probably more technical tricks that I've not really paid much attention. I'm glad for them but there is that aerodynamic problem behind the cab. Of course my BMW i3-REx has no significant, aerodynamic tail either.

Anyway, the paper is a fun read:

Consider the following: As Tesla prepares to bring the Model 3 to market, a recent survey of 800 Model 3 reservation holders reveals that they “are more than twice as likely to own a Toyota as any other brand, whereas current Tesla owners are four times as likely to own a BMW
as any other brand.”6 In other words, many prospective Tesla owners plan to jump from vehicles that are already fairly fuel efficient into pure battery-powered rides. As such, the gasoline demand displacement from their move to the Model 3 will, in aggregate terms, be much smaller than what is likely to be achieved through adoption of more fuel-efficient engines in larger trucks and SUVs. ​

Bob Wilson