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Sell gen 3 and buy gen 4 or wait on the gen 5?

Discussion in 'Gen 3 Prius Main Forum' started by eddiehaskell, Jan 26, 2017.

  1. eddiehaskell

    eddiehaskell Member

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    I have a 2010 II with 125k. No problems and I'm satisfied with the ride/safety/features/performance/looks, etc. I really have no complaints and I do enjoy it being at a point where I don't worry about every scuff, sratch or spill.

    However, the new car bug has got to me a little. Would it be worth selling my car and paying ~$20k for a gen 4? Or should I simply keep driving my gen 3 and wait on the gen 5?

    It's very tempting to have a shiny new toy to play with, but I was hoping that the next Prius would have substantially better gas mileage. Perhaps I was being unrealistic. Considering the 2017s are already out, the gen 5 is what...4 years away? By that time my '10 should have around 185-200k miles. Maybe the gen 5 will get 60+ mpg or have some all electric range standard?

    One positive for the gen 4 would be reducing potential repair cost, but on the other hand property tax (full coverage vs just liability) and insurance would run me another ~$500/year or $2,000 over the next 4 years. I really don't forsee any $2,000+ repairs before 200k but you never know.

    Of course there's also opportunity cost associated with dropping $20k on a new car now vs 4 years from now...let's conservatively say $500.

    I'm a tight wad, so that introduces bias - am I overlooking anything here?
     
  2. Kramah313

    Kramah313 Active Member

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    I would aim for the gen 5. Who knows what it will involve. There has been some talk that all priuses (Prii?) may have the ability to plug in by then. If you get the big bill on your gen 3, maybe you look to buy a gen 4 then. It will cost you some in the trade in or selling it for sure, but if you can hold off for 5 years or so you'll be in good shape.

    Also you can get a look at the mid cycle refresh in a couple years and see what changes are introduced there.
     
  3. Neohippy

    Neohippy Active Member

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    I had the same problem. I wanted a Prime but it didn't have enough seating. I had a 2011 2 and ended up buying a 2013 PiP over a new gen 4. I'm very pleased with my decision. I'm averaging 90mpg and while it's the same car I got a Advanced which is a nice upgrade over my stripped model 2.
     
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    how about a prime plus? 25 miles electric, $28,000. - $1,000. rebate. -$4,500. tax credit = $22,500. minus any state tax credit.
     
  5. RyanM

    RyanM Member

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    If you want a new car and have the means, go for it!

    If you want to wait for gen 5 which could easily be 4-6 years away, its up to you.

    There are already some used 16's out there that can save you a few grand if you don't mind having some miles on your "new car"
     
  6. JimboPalmer

    JimboPalmer Tsar of all the Rushers

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    I would not expect a Gen 5 before 2021.
     
  7. eddiehaskell

    eddiehaskell Member

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    I don't think the tax credit would work for me. After deductions I'm usually paying <$2k in taxes. I'm also not a fan of it being a 4 seater and having considerably less cargo volume than a standard Prius.
     
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  8. eddiehaskell

    eddiehaskell Member

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    Money isn't really a problem, but I'd hate to buy a gen 4 and then really dig the gen 5 that may get 60+ mpg with even more interior/cargo room. Gen 4 seems like an incremental improvement but the gen 5 may be somewhat revolutionary relative to a gen 3.
     
  9. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    by gen 5, they may all be plug ins.
     
  10. douglasjre

    douglasjre Senior Member

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    When retirement comes around you going to regret wasting this money.
     
  11. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk EGR Fanatic

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    Maybe the styling/practicality pendulum will swing the other way with gen 5, ie: away from artsy/edgy, back to conservative/practical. Not holding my breath, though. 'Nother idle thought: will there be another Prius generation? More'n likely, but will it be recognizable, lol.

    Repair costs can near "total" a car for so many things, besides the usual (hybrid) suspects: brake accumulator and AC for example. Fear of this keeps buyers on the new car treadmill, maybe more so than the reality. Big repair bills can and do happen, but I wouldn't let that sway you, if your current car is fine.
     
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  12. Pijoto

    Pijoto Active Member

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    Another option would be to wait another 2 years or so to see if they "refresh" Gen IV's styling to more palatable taste (though it has grown on me a little). Since you're a self-proclaimed tight-wad, even better would be to wait for the last few months before Gen V is released, to get close-out sales on remaining Gen IV's; that's how I got my Gen III for $5,000 off MSRP :D
     
  13. liskipper

    liskipper Member

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    An all Wheel drive would be nice. There are rumors its in the works, but not available for quite awhile.

    Posted via the PriusChat mobile app.
     
  14. eddiehaskell

    eddiehaskell Member

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    I'm 30 and retired...being frugal is a must.
     
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  15. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    then you've answered your own question.(y)
     
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  16. RyanM

    RyanM Member

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    Do share your secrets
     
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  17. Priifan

    Priifan Member

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    Your Gen 3 is a wonderful car BTW and should have a long life left. Is there a family member or friend who needs a wonderful used car? We shipped our 2012 Three to San Jose because my son needed a car, and ours is in wonderful condition. That gave us the reason to buy a 2017 Four, which we really adore. And the fact that the dealer took $5300. off his list price. Glad we bought the 2017 because it is a blast to drive! Your decision depends on your situation, which none of us are familiar with; hope this helps! (I drove the 2012 yesterday when it arrived after it rode six days on a car hauler, and noticed how much zippier the 2017 is. But any new car requires a lot of moola that could be used for better purposes.)
     
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  18. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Wait.

    If you want to kick some money into a repair fund in the meantime, that would insulate you from repair costs somewhat but if you really are a tightwad, then you should already have five figures in an emergency fund.
    If not, that would be a better way to spend the next 4 years than depreciating a new car into a car that you're already driving.
    If, on the other hand, your house is paid for, kids college funded, weddings planned for, and you have your retirement funded in addition to the aforementioned 3-6 months of monthly expenses in an emergency fund.....then hey.....why not?

    For me, other than a few baubles, a slight bump in fuel economy, and a very controversial new look.......there simply isn't enough of a difference between a G3 and a G4 to make it worth going $20,000 into debt over.
    It's an iPhone 6 versus iPhone 7 thing.

    Put another way......
    Your G3-II probably set you back about $22,000....six years ago.
    With 125K on the clock, and presuming average shape, your car is worth about 6K today.

    Congratulations!
    There are people out there that do the same thing with much higher trim levels that are not worth much more today.

    So....
    If you drive your car for another 3-4 years based on your burn rate you can expect to MAYBE spend a few thousand in maintenance.....say for a replacement battery and maybe something unexpected like a CVT or HVAC failure.
    Financial experts say that can be wise to spend up to the hull value of your car in a single repair - so your car is clearly economically viable.

    On the other hand.....if you go into debt for $20,000 for a new G4 for those same 3-4 years you can expect not to pay for repairs and very little for maintenance......BUT insurance and taxes will be much higher, and in 4 years you will have a 2017 Prius with about 80-90,000 miles on the odometer that will have depreciated at least half of its $20,000 initial cost.

    Your call.

    You may not understand how the tax credit works, but if the fact that the Prime is a 4-seater is a show stopper, then it doesn't matter.

    If your income doesn't support a $4,000 tax credit, then you really shouldn't be buying a Prime anyway since you're either too poor to afford one, or too rich to want to drive one.
     
    #18 ETC(SS), Feb 1, 2017
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2017
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  19. Kevin_Denver

    Kevin_Denver Active Member

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    In general Prii are happy running for at least 200k (some would argue 250 or 300k!) with minimal repairs, so long as they aren't abused and preventative maintenance is done. If you're excited about the gen. 4, but want to be frugal with your money, I would tend towards driving your current car until there are used gen 4s out there at least a few years old, and buying one then. My guess is that Toyota attempts to update the Prius every 5 years, but manages every ~6 years. So I don't predict we'll see gen 5. until at least 2022.

    I'm now two generations behind myself, but very happy with my car!
     
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  20. mjoo

    mjoo Senior Member

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    My wife owns a 2016 and I own a 2010. The only big differences I see are body styling and the navigation is different. The 2016 gets a little better MPG but not enough to recoup the cost if you sold your 2010.

    You're in a cost of ownership sweet spot. You could probably wait until gen 5 or until they come out with a better Prius Prime with 5 seats and better battery. The 4-seaters should be discounted by then. I'd be surprised if they held back the 4 wheel drive for gen 5. That would really help with towing capacity.

    Maybe focus on making your current vehicle "newer" by adding things like an android head unit, leather seats, aftermarket sunroof, etc...
     
    #20 mjoo, Feb 2, 2017
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2017