Atlantic hurricane season

Until floodwaters drain from N. Carolina (which seems to be the worst), Matthew vs. US damage cannot be estimated. Far from worst ever, yet flooding has happened far from areas deemed flood risk (with insurability consequences)

In Haiti, a different problem - not enough 'gloves on the ground' to respond, much less count broken things. UN is sending 10 million cholera vaccine doses. I did not even know they had 10 million cholera vaccine doses.

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For me, Maue's trend analyses are the best that can be done with ~6 decades of global data. No trends. But you don't need a trend to get walloped; it happens event-wise. Hurricanes seem to be things we need to prepare for better, and to prepare to recover from better. If instead we talk about 'CO2 is' or CO2 isn't', we are pretty much missing the point.

 

Probably, you have. After 1992 Hurricane Andrew in FL, better attachments of roof to house became newsworthy. I'd not attempt to compile a long list here; it's not the point. But such lists could be made, and then ranked cost/benefit, and presented as rational choices.

What we are doing anyway is increasing populations and structures on coastlines. Some of those in risk areas. It seems not enough to hope there won't be storms, or that they will go somewhere else instead.

Global hurricane losses must be less than $100 billions/yr I'd think. Whatever, my concern for their increase is in terms of populations and structures. Not climatology.

If we are already making the most rational preparations, well that would be just fine by me. Move along to the next subject. There are plenty.

 

Naturally I am pleased to see mojo offer a link including 2 IPCC references. As we discussed here earlier, there have not been any global trends in hurricane energy over ~60 years. It will be difficult to make confident predictions about future until ocean dynamics are much better understood.

Predictions of more people and infrastructure on coasts are much more certain. It would be hard to suppose that more problems won't follow. Hope is good, though. Rational preparations are even better. Cleaning up after is unavoidable. N. Carolina will pull through and Haiti will have rough times.

Two more approaching China, in the not-Atlantic world.

 

Might read this one eh?

Lisa M. Baldini et al. (2016). Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries. Scientific Reports 6, 37522 DOI: 10.1038/srep37522

Main message is tracks more north, more recurving. Just like the title says. But I know you'll also enjoy Figure 1A. Proxies show tropical cyclones much fewer since 1650 AD. What a bad time to be wandering the ocean in wooden ships eh?

 

Hurricane (then tropical storm) Otto has finished with Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Slightly unusual because of late season. Quite unusual for being close to equator. Contrast Baldini above.

Interesting ecological research in those areas has not had such a big blow before. Those folks have something new to study, and good information on prior conditions. So this might be a very revealing thing. Surely it means (more or less) whacked forests which are (let me tell you) a pain to walk through. It's machete and chainsaw time.

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

"Im convinced that Hurricanes develop under influence of the Suns magnetic field"

Are you interested in comparing Sun's magnetic variation through time to hurricane formation rates? In any ocean basin? That would typically be the next step. Even though "I'm convinced" is not the typical first step.

More along the lines of "I wonder if?"