Dashboard summary November 2016

Tesla's production/shipping logistics are the tail wagging that dog. We can expect them to have a blow out December for domestic deliveries if you listen to the reports. I would expect the volt and prime to enforce a very strong december.

This year had weak january and feburary with the volt gen II only shipping to california, and the model X production problems. These problems are gone now

First 11 months 2016 - 134K
full 2015 year - 116K
2014 - 122K
2013 - 98K
2012 - 53K
2011 - 17K

It appears that 2015 is an anomoly, but growth since 2014 is slow. I would expect at least 15K in december making growth 22% from 2014. That's nice but slow. Accelerators may come in 2018 with the model 3, but next year looks like slow growth as well. 2019 may be the year plug-ins outsell hybrids in the US.

 

Considerind hybrid share wouldn't change/evolve...
But it does also...

Hybrid electric vehicles in the United States - Wikipedia

 

Ah, Didn't put my assumptions out.

Assuming $70-$80 /bbl oil in 2019, up from around $50/bbl today. I further assume price reduction on hybrid and plug-in batteries. I don't expect the big sellers in 2019 (prius, tesla model 3) to benefit from size reduction as they likely are fixed in design, but they may benefit from battery weight reduction.

Peak year for hybrid cars in the US was 2013 with 495,771 vehicles, they should do about 350,000 this year. That is down 29%. If gas prices don't go up substantially, I think we will remain bellow the 2013 interum peak until new vehicles are designed. Let's call it 400,000 in 2019, but use your own numbers.

If plug-ins outpace hybrids both tesla and gm will be out of federal tax incentives. This may be hard to do. Tesla should sell about 40,000 BEVs in the US in 2016. I think they can do 250,000 in 2019, I am assuming they get out the model 3 and start the model Y plus a refresh of the model S. GM can probably take 60,000 between the bolt and volt, and hopefully will add a third vehicle by then. Ford can probably do 40,000. That brings us to 350,000. Toyota, Nissan, BMW, mitsubishi, etc should bring us over 400,000, but its all speculative. YMMV

By 2019 most new cars will have your point 1. electric power steering and efficient ac.
Tires are going lower rolling resistance, but I don't think most manufacturers want to push it as far as toyota, so progress is slowed. On aerodynamics well with low gas prices, high drag (frontal area) is increasing again in the fleet.
Engines already have most of the thermodynamic increases. Your turbo trap in the US has disapeared, turbos are more efficient on highway cruise than similarly powerful non turbo engines. In europe there has been too much downsizing meaning turbos are running higher than their efficient range.

 

Car and Driver
Ten of the cars C&D tested that did the best beating its EPA rating. 8 of the 10 had a turbo.

 

The higher the gas, the lesser the trucks share.
Also the incentives limit, and the rush to a charge (points may not rise as much as the sales)...Rav4h is very recent as well as the Malibu and Accord. Revised or new Camry should arrive soon, and within 3 years more models will be around (mostly Toyota, not much for the others).

 

Yep, and I don't expect given current opec and russia targets that oil will rise fast. YMMV. I do think we will go higher with some opec discipline. Note europe and japan already have high fuel taxes, so those markets are different. US and China seem to be the biggest plug-in growth markets.

This is why most of the BEV growth projected will be tesla. It already has a viable charging network already, and it will only be better in 2019. What is changing is starting next year its not unlimited free charging for life. Still I don't think that matters as much as plug-availability.

Toyota, Ford, GM, BMW all seem to have some good contenders for PHEV growth, but I only see PHEVs growing 20%/year. This is behind the BEV growth.

I think Rav4h numbers are baked in the pie I presented.
I don't see much volume for malibu hybrid or accord hybrid. camry and fusion hybrid seem to be the leaders of the pack of midsized. Perhaps they can get a little better but current versions are very good. Prius is not due for a redesign and still commands the largest market share, by 2019 I expect some prius sales to go to the prime, so not much growth projected there for the US. What number do you project. Obviously if we have rapid growth plug-ins won't get there. 400,000 - my guestimate - is based on these assumptions. Someone could come up with a killer hybrid SUV or a prius killer, or gas prices could go way up, and blow my estimate away.

 

November wait list folks at Tesla got a notice that some prices were going up a tad in December. It'll be interesting if that tactic worked to raise year end sales.
.

 

I got a don't wait for the model 3, buy a model S this year. In 2017 free supercharging on new cars will be limited to 400 kwh/year (about 1000 miles), then there will be a small charge. .

I'm still waiting for my model 3. This may sell some more model S's this year.