Prime vs Volt Fuel Economy

Looks to me like you did a reasonable job of this analysis. The only assumption I could find that's way wrong is the one above and it doesn't make a whole lot of difference.

 

Pretty good general level first run.

This type of analysis is good as a generality, however unless you weigh the carbon intensity to the population, it gives misleading results.
It is still generalized, however the best report I have found is
How do EVs Compare with Gas-Powered Vehicles? Better Every Year…. - The Equation
.

To translate to the volt and Prius you could, for the electric miles, divide 106mpge (the numbers they use for electric cars) by the MPGe for each car and the divide the MPG GHG equivalent in each zone.

Of course, you could go further by weighing more heavily the CA area since that is the state with the highest sales of these cars, but I think that level of accuracy starts loosing the view of the forest in favor of the trees

 

Well done.
Your assumptions about an average national grid work out to about the NG only scenario since you have clean energy and coal in about equal amounts and their average is about the same emissions as natural gas. Elon Musk used much the same approach a couple of years ago.

My nitpick has to do with your statement that most Americans would not look into the specifics of their grid energy sources. This is obviously true but most Americans are not buying electric cars. So if you want to generalize a grid I think you have to use the grids where the lion's share of the EVs are running around. This is Zythryn's point as well.

And people like me throw a wrench in that approach since I intend to run the EV off PV because my utility is mostly coal sourced. I suppose you just have to assume that people like me are a minority.

 

This is off topic slightly but I talked to a local car dealer and was told only 20 Prius Prime models are in the wild in a 5 state area around me. I am in Washington State. Does anybody actually have a Prius Prime as of today? I was told they would not be seen in my home state until 2017.

 

Use cars.com and enter your zipcode. Then choose "nearest" for search order listings.

 

Exactly

 

You have EPA then you have what I get in the real world (and a gen i at that)

Would love to drive a prime a few weeks to see what my actual ended up being

 

yes, if you peruse the prime threads, you will see 5 or 10 new owners reporting their experiences.

 

My personal fuel economy is about 25% better than EPA in the ICE and hybrids we own. I expect the Prime to give me similar results, so about 30 mile EV range and 65 MPG.

 

Yeah

but I get 100% better than EPA on ev and 25% better running gas.
Not sure if the prime would do 50ev miles or not

For me I would need to do apples to apples 97ish miles in cold weather to see what the prime can do versus my volt.

My volt is great as a daily driver (average atound 250mpg) but then I take it on several 3000 mile gas only 85mph trips a year that kill its lifetime fe

 

The relative results tend to stay about the same -- for better or worse.

 

Article on the net tonight (11-30-16) that GM is losing $9000 in each Chevy Volt sold. I would think that would be a funny way to run a business.

 

Bolt

 

Pah..... that's nuthin'. If one wants to spread some FUD, do it right!!!!!

General Motors Loses Nearly $50,000 Every Time It Sells A Chevy Volt

 

The point is that GM continues to follow the same approach... deliver something unprofitable with the hope of cost dropping fast enough to catapult the technology from niche to mainstream in only a few years.

With Volt, that failed on a colossal scale. So, we should ask what makes Bolt different. How will it avoid the same pitfalls?

The approach Toyota has taken is pretty much the opposite extreme... offer a vehicle with specs that won't compromise profitability. That naturally leaves enthusiasts wanting more and provides antagonists lots material to undermine with, but it doesn't sacrifice the opportunity for high-volume sales.

In other words, how will GM proceed with so few tax-credits available for Volt & Bolt, knowing how important it is to reach mainstream consumers?

 

A company like GM asks one question: what is the cheapest way to satisfy the ZEV requirements in order to continue the ICE business ? For some companies it is a compliance car, for other companies it is ZEV credit purchases.

 

Does the article specify how they came to that value? The $50k one for the Volt is arrived by taking the millions spent on R&D and spreading it out over just the cars sold in the first year or so. When considering R&D costs, the Prius didn't make a profit until its second generation.

I have yet to see evidence of Volt ever being priced below its manufacturing cost.

If the Bolt is priced as such, the balance sheet of a multinational corporation is huge. GM makes money on trucks and SUVs, like nearly all car companies. Selling a few Bolts will greatly improve their CAFE number, and reduce the costs for not hitting those targets. Increased crossover/SUV sales what was driving the deals on actual cars at GM and Ford dealers this year for that same purpose.

 

Assuming you're able to qualify for the full $7,500 tax credit of the Volt, the Prius Prime is still going to be $3,000 cheaper, that is going to buy a lot of gas at a whopping 54MPG...

...even more so, when Chevy runs out of Tax credits.

 

This is an argument people use to not get a hybrid and continue driving a traditional car.

We'll likely see a price cut on the Volt at least.

 

Unfortunately, it still makes a strong argument against Hybrids I always try to emphasize lower maintenance cost and added utility of a Prius when recommending them.....

In the age of chronically low gas prices, that are practically on parity with electricity cost when a car is able to get 50+ MPGs, the argument over EV range in Plug-in Hybrids is even harder to make...and debates over CO2 emissions sources kinda goes over most people's heads The lower initial cost of the Prius Prime, especially considering more people would be able to take advantage of the full $4,500 tax credit (for a Single person, you need to make around $43K vs $58K for the Volt), would be more important when gas prices are super low.

Also, any price cut on the Volt, due to lower lithium battery prices, can be easily matched by Toyota.