Residual value of Prime (and Gen4)

I always assume residual value is zero, since I always assume I'm going to own a car for a long time. I've currently got one 12 1/2 year old car and one 28 year old car.

I plan to own the Prime for at least 12 years.

This way, at the end of its life, if I get a little value out of it at resale or trade in, that's just a bonus.

 

Residual value equals trade-in value? Or is this a lease euphemism?

 

Tesla recently took a major hit from Consumer Reports regarding reliability. Secondly, there is a chance Tesla may run out of tax credits before any of the 300k pre-orders leave the factory. Finally, no more free access to Superchargers. Plus Elon is on the wrong side of politics now.

 

This is a difficult question. If you assume that each car has some percentage by which its value decreases per year, you can try to estimate these percentages. For example, for plug in cars this depreciation percentage is probably higher for cars with lower EV range, so higher for PiP than for Prime. But it is just guessing. If you assume such differences you can try to compare the residual values of two cars after a number of years.

 

i think it's based more on gas prices than anything else. in today's climate, they're worth nothing, just like new ones. if you can sell at the right time, you can do much better.
i suppose like any high tech, depreciation is always faster because change comes faster. but if you look at hybrids, gen 2's are still very close to what gen 4 offers.

 

Based on the prices I have seen for gen1, low-milage used Volt's, I would expect the Prime to lose value quickly. In 3 years, most likely, Toyota will be able to increase the range of the Prime, making the older models seem obsolete.

 

I'd expect that it being a Toyota would help the residual/resale value, since they have earned a reputation of reliability that other automakers have struggled to reach and maintain.

What will likely hurt the Prius/Prime sales more than anything, aside from gas prices staying "low" for another 5 years, is the incoming batch of 200+ miles EV's such as the Chevy Bolt and the Tesla Model 3. Those who want an EV daily driver, can charge it up at home, and don't feel the need to do long road trips, or have a 2nd car to do it with, will likely just pick those cars over the Prime.

That's not to says it won't sell, as it's very nice to have one car that can run on electric, but use gas to eliminate range anxiety. But the residual/resale value on the Prime will likely be about the same as the first gen Chevy Volt, where it's currently hovering around the $10-15k range for ones coming off-lease right now.

So terrible news for the first owner who keeps their car less than 10 years, or the leasing company if the lessee turns in the plug-in. On the plus side though, the 2nd owner can get a great price on used plug-ins.

It's hard for most people to justify spending $35-45k on a plug-in even with the tax credit, and factoring in the "low" gas prices causing everyone to suffer short-term memory loss when they rush out to buy a truck or SUV for their 50 mile 1-way commute, when just a few years ago they were complaining about $4+ a gallon of gas.

But if you're only paying $13k for that same plug-in car a few years later, suddenly it makes a lot of financial sense.

 

at those rates, it's amazing there are any gassers left on the road!

 

Used plug in values are also hurt by the incentives on a new one.

 

If you're worried just lease one. Then Toyota can worry about the "residual value". It is built into the lease cost, and you can quickly look that up. The car is usually worth about 10-20% more than the "buyback" at end of lease. So you can figure out what it's worth after two or three years, anyway.
As for being "obsolete", I wouldn't worry about that. There is always someone who will want it.

 

Unless there is a significant step up considering battery charging times, or at least range,Tesla and others producing EVs wil finally run into trouble the more EVs are on the road !
There is no way waiting queues can be avoided in future if it takes a 1/2 hour to get a decent charge
I am not sure battery powered EVs are the future,I personally think it will be fuel cell technology !

 

If a person has a BEV they need to stop at a public charger every day, or every other day, they got one without enough range to meet their needs. There isn't a half hour wait to charge at home.

I see FCEVs happening, but not hydrogen for fuel.

 

It's not a half-hour wait to charge, it's that it take a half hour to charge at a supercharger station.

We'll see.

 

Replying to a post about lines for a charger. If home charging can't cover 90% of your regular use, then you need a BEV with more range or a BEV doesn't work for you.

I see it only happening long term, when the costs have come down on fuel cells and onboard reformers make it possible to fuel them with a liquid fuel. A gaseous fuel besides hydrogen, like ammonia and CNG, is also possible, but I think the required space for the tanks would exclude a battery pack for a plug in.

 

I do the same thing. BONUS!

 

A 5kg gaseous H2 tank + 15kW H2 fuel cell is no larger than, and likely smaller than a 1.8L 4-cylinder gasoline engine and 11.3 gallon gas tank plus accessories (like exhaust system, radiator, etc.). And on a Prime, it would provide sufficient energy for a 400+ mile range and be refuelable in less than 5 minutes.