Featured Toyota is planning long-range battery-powered electric cars for 2020 as its hydrogen fuel cells cars

by 2020, they'll have a whole new marketing team. the old one will have moved on to a german mfg.

 

This is what GM claimed before the auto recession. Then it went bankrupt.

Auto companies are an oligopoly, that really had marketing evidence that the market wanted plug-ins. They thought it would be less profitable than status quo. They were wrong and went bankrupt. Since the taxpayer had to bail them out, I think the taxpayer should have a say, as gm and ford and toyota are Too Big To Fail.

It took an outsider (Tesla) to show them they were wrong, otherwise they would have colluded to not produce plug-ins. Really Toyota, VW group, and GM make over 30 million cars a year and have great political power. They often are wrong too ;-)

More plug-ins are being purchased (both US and world wide) and fewer hybrids. The cycle is different though. Look out 10 years. There will be oil price spikes, we just don't know when. Will we bail out big auto again if they decide they don't want to invest in plug-ins?

 

they would have gone bankrupt with plug ins, there's no correlation. i agree they would all prefer to not make plug ins, and that's because they don't see the future, only the current quarterly. but that's how most business tends to operate. vision creates start ups.

 

GM invested more in fuel cell vehicles than they would have needed to invest in a four seat phev (they had a prototype in 2002 as a variation on the ev1) and get it to market. They lobbied our government to favor fuel cells and to not require plug-ins.

Both Lutz and Rick Wagoner said not developing hybrids and killing the ev 1 plug-in program were big mistakes. Lutz said investing so much engineering in fuel cells was a big mistake.

I do not think gm would have imploded like it did if it focused on its technology, instead of Big SUVs like the escalade, that were quite profitable, but ate resources that could have been used to build efficient cars.

 

we'll have to agree to disagree. here we are in the obama economy, and trucks and suv's are again the profit centers.
if people wanted plug ins, volts and leaves would be selling better.

 

volts are indeed selling well up 63% compared to last year (ytd). But more than just selling well, they show some technical leadership that helps gm sell cruze's and malibu's, and learn enough to built the bolt. GM seems to be dragging its feet, but phev seems like a good drivetrain for an onroad SUV.

This is just as technical leadership on the prius helped toyota sell more camry's and corrollas. The prius by itself took a long time to be profitable and I don't think it has ever been as profitable as a camry let alone a 4 runner. But in terms of marketing it made Toyota a lot more money than a 4 runner or highlander ever would.

We go in cycles on gasoline costs. It will go up again. If the government doesn't protect the consumer from a few big auto executives plans, we will indeed not be in good shape for the next spike.

I do believe that Wagoner did and Uchiyamada (toyota board chairman) really does believe in hydrogen. We know people in both companies that know better. I hope that toyota spending a lot of money lobbying for hydrogen does not have sacremento or washington take their eye off the ball of oil dependancy. I don't think we should ever have to bail out big auto again.

 

After decades of mismanagement and poor product quality the Great Recession forced bankruptcy upon GM.

Seems it's just what they needed.

 

Also, Prius hybrids are in that same bucket. There was a sea change in September 2013 when Gen-3 Prius sales took a big dip. Now I also understand the problem of plug-ins, the need to have a significant home charging capability beyond L1.

One can survive with L1 by giving up independent use of the car in the evening. For example, my typical commute is 20 miles and with a 31 A @240 VAC, L2 charger, the car is fully charged within 1 hr, 20 minutes. That is enough time to change out of work clothes, visit with wife and dogs, and figure out what chores and errands are needed before the shops close. But the 12 A @120VAC, L1 charger takes 5 hr, 45 minutes, and by then many stores and restaurants are closed and closing.

A practical, EV car, requires a high capacity, L2 charger. Without one, you've got a commuting car with little or no practical around town use.

Bob Wilson

 

That 63% is a very, very misleading statistic, to the point of greenwashing. You can't just cherry pick or omit detail like that. Sales were down last year due to the inventory of gen-1 being drawn down and gen-2 only being rolled out to limited areas. There's the "wait for the new one" effect too.

Step back to consider the big picture. The goal even before gen-1 rollout began was to achieve mainstream volume by the end of year 2, a minimum of 60,000 sales annually in this market. That's an average of 5,000 per month. Sales of gen-2 haven't been even remotely close to that. The average has only been 2,000 per month recently. That's just a minor improvement upon the 1,700 per month gen-1 was averaging.

To say Volt is selling well is to disregard what's happening with the rest of the market. Stating a percentage doesn't actually tell us much either. 2,191 may seem like a lot, but pales in comparison to: 16,151 sales of Malibu; 17,126 sales of Cruze; 19,664 sales of Equinox. That's why market growth is so essential. Hiding behind a limited amount of tax-credits and spinning the resulting sales to appear impressive isn't helping anyone.

Toyota gets a lot of heck for pushing Prime in a seeming unpopular direction, but it clearly confirms they are willing to take a risk to achieve growth... quite unlike GM's choice for Volt

 

when gas goes up, more people will buy fuel efficient vehicles. but not because they 'want' to. and that is what this discussion is about.
when people can choose between a fuel efficient vehicle and a non fuel efficient vehicle, with no other compromises, that's when they'll 'want' a fuel efficient vehicle. and again, i'm talking about 97% of the driving public, not the 3% already in alt fuel vehicles.

 

We live in a bubble here at Priuschat. The mainstream may poll heavily as caring about environmental issues such as these, but in the end it comes down mostly to their own $$$ and creature comforts and wants.

 

yup, you got it. that's why government policy is the only thing that works.

 

On this, we agree. Fuel efficient cars should be +5% of new car sales, not less than 3% even adjusting for the loss of cheat-diesels. Funnily enough, truck, SUV, and large sedan diesels are doing nicely.

Bob Wilson

 

Just the government of California and they are still pursuing the hydrogen fool-cell dream.

Bob Wilson

 

Isn't someone's favorite slogan "don't let perfect be the enemy of the good"?

California doesn't get everything right, but it's often on the right wavelength

 

Although the problem with hydrogen is that, if you've got access to oil or natural gas, it's not even the good.

From a CO2 perspective, literally the only reason to use hydrogen is if you for some reason can't use BEVs, and you've got coal to burn. It's better than turning the coal into gasoline.

 

Which German manufacturer doesn't have a plug in now?

 

I give California a "B" instead of an "A" because of the hydrogen fool-cell bias.

Understand I have no problem with reformulation of hydrogen from more easily handled carriers: ammonia, the alcohols, or liquified methane. The pressures and handling are much easier. I prefer ammonia because the nitrogen can be dumped overboard. The carbon carriers, some renewable, are OK but not my first choice.

Personally I think what Toyota should do is export the Mirai, sell it to a recycler, who does whatever CARB requires for the credits. Then the recycler disassembles the car and ships the parts to Japan. There the VIN is changed, reassembled, and exported back.

Bob Wilson

 

yikes. I just looked it up, as bisco seemed to see a different reality than me. Yes the redesign has increased sales. Yes 2015 was down as gm was telling people to wait for the redesign. The volt is profitable and selling well now. Stop denying that.

Christ john. You keep confusing your unatainable goals for gm's goals, then mishandling the data to make it look bad. Niche car, selling better than gm's other niche the corvette, and already has some offspring of the bolt. Its definitely a sucess for GM.

What you could say is the volt is no where near as sucessful as the Model S platform of a long range BEV with a sports sedan and luxury SUV.

Perhaps ... it is pulling sales of cruze and malibus just like the first gen prius pulled sales of camrys and corrola. Oh yeah, you don't wan't it to be sucessful so it isn't, and you can keep moving your goal posts.

huh. All I said was they are late to the party and I welcome them. I give them grief about their hyping of the mirai, which they think 70 sales in a month is a great acheivement and its going to kill the tesla.

I think their first gen prius phv was a big disapointment. The sucess of the volt is making them try again and move in the right direction. I'm sure if there was no telsa and no volt, toyota would have just killed it plug-in in the womb. Others had to prove there was a market when toyota's marketing machine was saying there wasn't one.

So I welcome the prime. Don't keep spininning it as if I don't. I think the new styling is poor, but I think that is a hang over of the group think on the mirai. Maybe on the next generation they improve that too.[/QUOTE]

 

Specifically the claim that Toyota is moving away from Hydrogen Fuel Cell and investing more into pure electric, I think is just a symptom of the age we are living in.

I think its kind of an interesting and exciting time, nearly really still the infancy of the growth of alternatives to the pure ICE vehicle.

Toyota got it right...and still has it "right" being the major player in the "Golden Age" of the Hybrid, with the Prius.

But the wheel for all automakers is still in spin as to what the future represents.
So far the winner appears to be full electrics and advancing battery and charging technology and infrastructure.

I'm enthusiastic, and intrigued to see what Toyota means by "Long Range" battery powered cars.
There is almost a "Wild West" feel to the battle for advancement and acceptance.

I think Tesla paved the way here though. With the revelation that many of the supposed compromises a full electric vehicle use to represent, doesn't necessarily need to be part of the equation.