Here is VW's 5-10 yr vision. What is Toyota's?

It's worth noting this:

So, you can have things like this happen, all counting as separate models - it's worth noting that two of these are in current production:

Volkswagen e-up!
Škoda Citigo EV (just a rebadged e-up!)
SEAT Mii EV (ditto)

Volkswagen e-Golf
Volkswagen e-Jetta (this would probably be based on the Skoda Octavia)
Audi A3 e-tron all electric (as opposed to the PHEV they have now - and just a rebadged e-Golf)
Škoda Octavia EV (see the e-Jetta)
SEAT León EV (another rebadged e-Golf)

That would bring them up to eight models, just rebadging their two current BEV products (OK, I created a new generation of a current model (the Jetta, which will be due for a new generation in a couple years) to do it, but it was a logical conclusion). Then, consider that they're planning on launching a Porsche (Mission-E) that could be shared with Audi and Bentley (there's talk that Porsche's front-engine RWD platform would replace both the entry-level Bentley and top-end Audi products). The e-Golf's approach also works for a hypothetical e-Passat (which shares its platform), and the resulting Škoda Superb EV. There's also a good portion of VW's vans that share the MQB platform, too, and could also be released in electrified versions. Every single model listed here is designed, from the outset, to support a Leaf-style short-range EV variant: Volkswagen Group MQB platform - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Now, if you want 30 good EVs... that'll be harder. VW is working on a long range EV platform, MEB. But, then, reliability is a concern, given what people have reported with e-Golfs. And, even an unreliable car can be perceived as reliable if service is good, but VW's service, at least in the US, is legendarily bad.

 

So if they work real hard they can achieve this goal. Then what? Is the market going to support this?

Personally, I'm happy with a hybrid, not even interested in a plug-in. Maybe I'm atypical though.

I suspect this announcement is BS, the fervor will die down, they'll get back to business as usual.

 

have you driven one? you know, the gateway drug?

 

The market is going to support BEVs to some extent there, given that they'll be forbidden from entering city centers in many European cities with ICE, if they want to drive in.

 

wouldn't that be a beautiful thing? a city full of noiseless vehicles! and no emissions to boot!

i hope the same is required for trucks, busses and the like.

 

I would trust Toyota any day !

 

does the japanese govt get involved with the japanese car industry when planning emission goals and such? or is all this being driven by euro/american goals?

 

The Japanese government and car industry works together. The focus on FCEV there is (mostly) supported by both.

 

Well - there WAS that whole unintended acceleration thing . . . . not exactly completely up front. Seems like all the manufacturers have there moments when it comes to being completely forthright . . .
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all humans.

 

i found toyota's vision: flying cars! take that vdubya!

 

It will be interesting to see at what point EV market will stop to grow. There is huge potential to grow, but at 20% market share IMO thing will start to slow considerably.

There will still be people:
- not able to charge at home
- not wiling to invest in faster than 110V charging
- not willing to wait more than 5 min for long trips
- just old-fashioned not trusting the technology

IMO hybrids will also grow at steady rate without too much fuss and media attention, people will start to realise they are just better ICE cars, not necessarily only gas savers. VW will find there is a huge market gap between ICE and EV, where they will be loosing money and market share. And it looks like many manufacturers not only VW will take hands off hybrids, they just don't get them.

EV drivetrain for Toyota will be simple, just scale up battery production and you have a product in 2 years, So I'm not worried about 5-10 years visions.

 

Plug in market share limits will depend on a market's housing situation, and some barricades to BEVs is generational. Once wifi is added to a DC fast charger, and most with a smart phone or tablet won't mind the extra time over filling up an ICE, for instance.

There are already ICE cars available with auto start/stop and regenerative braking. A mild hybrid system may well be under a grand US in cost already. The lines between a traditional car and hybrid is blurring, and it will eventually disappear. Leaving whether a car has a plug or not as the big distinction.

As for VW's plans for BEVs, they don't exclude hybrids. They have plain hybrid models available alongside the PHEV ones now. For BEVs, they are developing 800V fast charging. With charge times for 300 miles as fast as filling with gasoline, home charging is no longer a must for BEV ownership.

 

The "charge time" for 300 miles in my Prius is 48 seconds. I timed it. It takes longer to drive in and out but the total time in-to-out is about 3 minutes, or 8 minutes for a family of four to use the bathroom. Matching that in a BEV is going to require around 6 megawatts of charge power. Now, I don't think it needs to be that fast, but at least half a megawatt is required for it to not be annoying on a long trip (that's four times faster than a Supercharger).

The alternative is a slower charger like an existing Tesla Supercharger at every restaurant, hotel, store, rest stop, etc. If I could charge for 8 minutes or so at every stop, that would be acceptable.

 

Yes you've already repeated YOUR needs before. But thankyou anyway. Best if you simply keep driving what you got - & try to not get too anoyed with 'others' - who manage with different thinking - that for them, for now, it's good enough.
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Im their latest statements they don't see much future in any kind of hybrid.

 

I was just answering the false claim that the developing 800V charging approach is "as fast as filling with gasoline", which it's not.

Charged EVs | Porsche foresees 800-volt DC charging

"When it comes to long-distance driving, a rapid-charging infrastructure needs to offer a convenient ratio of driving time to break periods. “It should be possible to get a sufficient charge for roughly 400 kilometers within the usual break time of 15 to 20 minutes.”"

400km in 15-20 minutes is not at all the same as as "filling with gasoline", which takes about 8 seconds per gallon = 412.5 miles per minute in a Prius. Even the "usual break time of 15 to 20 minutes" is false. It's more like 5-10 minutes, and "400km" is not "300 miles", it's just under 250 miles.

I'm not sure what BEV drivers do for 45 minutes while their cars charge. I looked at where Supercharger stations are compared to where we were on our last trip, and the closest one to where we actually stopped was 1.1 miles (the longest was about 65 miles). That's a long round-trip walk if you leave the car there to charge and walk to where you actually want to be.

 

right ..... and thanks - again.
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Has VW stated they are abandoning the ICE in the next 5 to 10 years?

As long as they are making ICE cars, VW will have some degree of hybridization in their fleet. Fuel economy standards and pollution regulations with require it.

Longer term, if their fast charger works out, they might be right about hybrids and PHEVs. BEVs will be the norm, and the few applications in which an ICE only will work can be an ICE without full hybridization.