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Featured August 2016 Dashboard Summary

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Sep 3, 2016.

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  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Source: August 2016 Dashboard

    Another great report from Jeff Cobb and team.

    Model 08/15/16 07/15/16 06/15/16 05/15/16
    1 Prius Liftback 10177 9930 8531 9389
    2 Ram Pickup Diesel* 5235 4310 4437 4493
    3 RAV4 4919 4692 3751 4185
    4 Transit Diesel* 4198 3967 5053
    5 Model S* 3200 2400 2800 1500
    6 Fusion Hybrid 3002 3519 2542 1716
    7 Camry Hybrid 2155 2214 1649 2055
    8 Volt 2081 2406 1937 1901
    9 Model X* 1900 1500 2000 2000
    10 Prius C 1459 1402 1355 1909
    11 Fusion Energi 1422 1341 1700 1453
    12 Prius (as always lowercase v) 1346 1358 1130 1215
    13 Sonata 1146 1301 1242 2513
    14 Leaf 1066 1063 1096 979
    15 i3* 1013 1479 608 696
    16 Accord Hybrid 890 565 31 15
    17 C-Max Hybrid 879 1112 1486 1327
    18 X5 876 649 583 500
    19 Colorado Diesel 832 679 789 593
    20 CT200h 819 849 785 797
    21 Avalon Hybrid 775 707 619 660
    22 C-Max Energi 707 755 630 538
    23 ES Hybrid 692 705 646 735
    24 Optima Hybrid 654 768 483 570
    25 RX 400 / 450 h 574 684 684 719
    26 MKZ 541 681 766 805
    27 Malibu Hybrid 522 416 371 246
    28 Highlander Hybrid 506 524 528 473
    29 e-Golf 454 344 248 269
    30 Mirai 371 41 41 41
    31 Grand Cherokee Diesel 368 334 336 377
    32 A3 Plug In 346 349 353 361
    33 Canyon Diesel 340 347 335 294
    34 500e* 311 274 278 388
    35 Spark 292 333 359 394
    36 Sonata Plug In* 250 350 200 250
    37 Range Rover Sport 242 263 231 213
    38 NX Hybrid 224 228 183 229
    39 CR-Z 222 272 235 234
    40 Range Rover 202 241 175 145
    41 Cayenne S E-Hybrid 197 148 176 191
    42 X5 Diesel 177 146 257 291
    43 XC90 Plug In 176 178 166 110
    44 Soul EV 153 179 134 120
    45 Q50 Hybrid 150 112 94 95
    46 i8 145 166 169 146
    47 Jetta Hybrid 128 87 44 47
    48 3-Series Diesel 120 153 136 332
    49 XV Crosstrek Hybrid 117 193 214 303
    50 Focus EV 75 58 54 54
    51 GLE-Class Diesel 67 99 149 102
    52 5-Series Diesel 65 85 61 97
    53 QX60 Hybrid 65 74 88 85
    54 Lacrosse Hybrid 60 55 60 42
    55 Panamera S E-Hybrid 59 21 22 26
    56 Pathfinder Hybrid 58 55 57 60
    57 B-Class Electric 57 50 44 49
    58 forTwo EV 55 62 53 75
    59 3-Series Plug in 51 25 25 25
    60 Civic Hybrid 50 60 62 83
    61 GL-Class Diesel 48 65 57 137
    62 X3 Diesel 32 73 61 45
    63 Promaster Van Diesel 32 31 21 29
    64 E-Class Diesel 30 49 35 52
    65 S550 Plug In 30 32 27 27
    66 i 25 20 4 2
    67 GLE 550e Hybrid 24
    68 RLX Hybrid 19 11 18
    69 LS 600h 11 2 1 2
    70 Q70 Hybrid 9 10 10 10
    71 Insight 9 5 9 9
    72 Cruze Diesel 7 4 32 11
    73 ELR 6 15 94 45
    74 GS 450h 3 12 3 7
    75 Prius Plug In 2 4 11 4
    76 Tucson 2 4 4 4
    77 Q5 Hybrid 2 1 2 2
    78 E400H 1 2 4
    79 ML Class Diesel 1
    80 ActiveHybrid 5 (535ih) 3 8
    81 Regal Hybrid 2 4 7
    82 GLK Class Diesel 1 1
    83 Impala Hybrid 10 2
    84 ILX Hybrid 1


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    • 2016 model clearance working
    • Model S doing well
    • Welcome to party Accord Hybrid
    Bob Wilson
     
    #1 bwilson4web, Sep 3, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2016
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  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    thank you bob! wait until prime arrives, it's going to be sick.
     
    #2 bisco, Sep 3, 2016
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  3. Prius Maximus

    Prius Maximus Senior Member

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    Sick as in "anemic", or, sick as in "awesome, dude!"?
     
    #3 Prius Maximus, Sep 3, 2016
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  4. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Apparently car sales are way down especially sedans.

    GM's vociferous former CEO Bob Lutz was saying CUV's (liftbacks) provide so much better utility on a car frame than a sedan does. Took him 10-years to figure that out. Meanwhile Toyota has a lot of hybrid sedans and made the Gen4 more sedan-like. Long live the Prius v, I hope!

    I am looking to see if PHEV sales drop due to the loss of green HOV stickers in CA. I am thinking part of the PHEV sales were in anticipation of more HOV stickers. Prime to me will not look good on sales without the CA HOV stickers, but I just don't know if CA green HOV stickers are totally dead yet.
     
    #4 wjtracy, Sep 3, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2016
  5. telmo744

    telmo744 HSD fanatic

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    371 Mirais? Mistake, probably...
     
    #5 telmo744, Sep 3, 2016
  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    have all my bases covered.;)
     
    #6 bisco, Sep 3, 2016
  7. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    371 FCV is correct as far as original source (Jeff Cobb @ Hybrid Cars.com).

    Keep in mind we never have any knowledge about why these cars are being sold (fleets, etc). We talk about the sales as if individual consumers are running out to buy these vehicles, but not so sure when it comes to plug-ins and FCV. Leasing companies, state/fed governments are buying. According to Bob Lutz, fleet sales were very high in August, except for GM which has gotten out of the fleet sales game. I still wonder if Volt however is part of the remaining GM fleet sales.
     
    #7 wjtracy, Sep 3, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2016
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  8. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    no mistake, seeing more and more on the road :)
     
    #8 orenji, Sep 3, 2016
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  9. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    how many Mirai have sold since introduction?
     
    #9 Trollbait, Sep 3, 2016
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    It might be more useful to follow working hydrogen stations.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #10 bwilson4web, Sep 3, 2016
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  11. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    Slow introduction does not mean failure....
     
    #11 orenji, Sep 3, 2016
  12. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    No, I just wanted to know how many of the planned 3000 over 3 years were sold.
     
    #12 Trollbait, Sep 3, 2016
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    My estimate: 600 / 3000 ~= 20%.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #13 bwilson4web, Sep 3, 2016
  14. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    it was a lot more exciting to see the monthly numbers when they were increasing.
     
    #14 bisco, Sep 3, 2016
  15. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Looking ahead, we are looking like 100,000 to 105,000 Prius Liftback sales in 2016, and maybe 140,000 to 145,000 all Prius models (+c+v) by year end. That would be down maybe 90,000 units from the 2012/2013 peak, however the successful RAV4 Hybrid should hit at least 45,000 units in 2016, explaining part of the reduced Prius sales.

    (Sales below are all Prii: LB+c+v+Plug-in)
    [​IMG]

    The "bump" at 2012 is the start of Prius c + Prius v + PiP sales

    Wow...if I double first half sales, I calc 450,000 Prius sales in Japan (Gen4 + c) in 2016.
     
    #15 wjtracy, Sep 3, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2016
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  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Just curious, "Prius Batts Replaced" in the title line of spreadsheet? Are these official Toyota battery replacements or some other sources too? Is there a 2001 sales number and batteries? So the 2002 model would have had ~1,005 batteries replaced?

    Bob Wilson
     
    #16 bwilson4web, Sep 4, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2016
  17. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    I see RAV4 hybrid pushing v really hard. It's easy to see how incredibly practical they are as taxis. So, that aspect of them could provide business-sustaining justification. That may mean less frequent upgrades though. As service vehicles, that's just fine.

    RAV4 hybrid as a mainstream contender is an entirely different story. We all knew the return of cheap gas meant high demand for small SUV offerings. Toyota has taken advantage of that by providing a hybrid model for a very competitive price. That move is paying off too. Last month's sales bump it up to just under the mainstream minimum (5,000 per month).

    In other words, seeing RAV4 hybrid grow to the point of becoming so popular it puts heavy pressure on other automakers to compete directly is quite realistic... which is the unfulfilled dream Ford had a decade ago with Escape hybrid. So, expecting them to re-enter the competition is almost a given. Toyota is proving market potential.


    Prius Prime demand won't be measurable for awhile. With the limited availability of Prius PHV, the overall supply will get used up nationally. That will make gauging CA interest a challenge.
     
    #17 john1701a, Sep 4, 2016
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  18. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Back in 2013, we had two sources of data:
    (1) Consumer Reports survey, which gave us each model year batt replacements
    (2) Toyota quoting that <1% of the Prius batteries had failed so far.

    So this spreadsheet was attempting to check to see if Toyota's <1% quote was consistent with the Consumer Reports survey, which it was.

    A lot of water has "spilled over the dam" since 2013, lots more Gen2 batts have failed, and CR stopped reporting the Prius batt failure rates surveys, and Toyota stopped quoting the <1% batts failed.
     
    #18 wjtracy, Sep 4, 2016
  19. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Problem is, there is no clear definition of "failed" batteries. How many miles? How many years? How much capacity?
     
    #19 john1701a, Sep 4, 2016
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  20. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    The BMW i3 forum reports the 2017s were on EPA hold until Sept 8 and are now just reaching the dealerships. If accurate, we're likely to see:
    1. Big jump in BMW i3 sales
    2. Jump in used BMW i3 on eBay (three BMW i3-REx last night)
    Bob Wilson
     
    #20 bwilson4web, Sep 9, 2016
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