Source: A climate scientist and economist made big bucks betting on global warming | Dana Nuccitelli | Environment | The Guardian The record warmth of 2015 just made me £1,334 richer. While the extra cash is a nice bonus, it sadly demonstrates that the atmospheric dice remain loaded towards increasing climate change. So, how did I turn increasing temperatures into cash? About five years ago I was at a conference in Cambridge where most of the participants were sceptical about the influence of humans on the climate. I took the microphone and asked if any of them would care to make a £1,000 bet with me about whether 2015 would be hotter than 2008. Two brave souls, Ian Plimer and Sir Alan Rudge, agreed. <SIGH> If only PriusChat ran a 'betting service' so we could fleece the trolls. Bob Wilson
Is there a place where active climate bets are compiled? Our Humble Chat seems not like the right place.
Well, it could be... If the richness of Gore could be told, and if it did not draw our attention to riches accumulating from riding a stop or few on the fossil-E train past where we should have got off. And if not noticing other riches that could accrue from obtaining more energy without burning stuff. A lot of ifs, and I at least consider Mr. Gore as having left the stage. So many newer things since movie time.But if there is no better newer flog-victim, we shall just have to make do. My interests differ. I really want a Picarro (TM) laser cavity ringdown spectrometer. And if rich chumps exist who doubt the next decade will be warmer than the present, I'd use their money. But even that is not without risk. "Thou shall not steal" commandment has no wiggle words about chumps. So I could Eventually still be on the hook.
I'd take that bet in an instant. Solar cycle 24 is slumping exactly like the cycles of the Dalton Minimum.You going to look pretty stupid in a decade.
What bet would you take? Too late for the 2008 - 2015 one, we know how it turned out. So name the bet you're offering to take. Maybe there'll be some takers. You wouldn't mind the extra spending money, right? -Chap
Slump of cycle 24. Every solar cycle ends by sunspot numbers going to (near) zero. So some other similarity must be meant? Below is the record, and Dalton Minimum was cycles 5 and 6. Now cycle 24 is ending. What is the sameness that differs from other solar cycles? We should always attend to solar dynamics; a kilowatt per m2 comes from there, vs. 0.1 watt per m2 geothermal (both values approximate). What I see from cycles 21 through now is, well, what everybody else sees. Down. Global surface temperatures during the same time have been up. As has CO2. Personally i'd be most happy of the next solar cycle was also small. Any help against +T is appreciated, and there would also be less risk of coronal mass ejections. We have painted ourselves into a corner in terms of technological sensitivity to those. "You going to look pretty stupid in a decade." I'll take that in the best possible way, that I don't look stupid now. If by any slim chance, the next decade does not bring higher T, I'd be more pleased than sad about stupid. Because we need that time to get our house in order! We have been doing things the old way for too long already.
I am expecting some cooler trend years after El nino impacts go away. If it stays this hot, or hotter, say into 2018 or so then that is cause for concern.
A fan of ice because of the phase change and heats involved, it is a key symptom of our global energy balance. Early on the high altitude glaciers, snow and ice thinned. There are exceptions where higher humidity in the winds leads to more accumulations such as Himalayan and parts of Antarctica. But overall, sea ice and land ice are melting. Bob Wilson
