Polar Ice For 2016

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by bwilson4web, Dec 23, 2015.

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  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Our good friend @wxman often pointed out that weather is somewhat random. Although the weather models are getting better, even individual storms can follow unpredictable routes and behavior.

    In contrast, climate, man-made global warming simply 'loads the dice.' Even a loaded dice will hit the other numbers but the distribution is askew. There are no guarantees but past data strongly suggests both polar sea efforts are likely to succeed.

    One of the logic flaws of the deniers is "Impossible Expectations" invented by them. A type of straw man argument, silly on the face of it but sometimes it can snag the unwary.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #61 bwilson4web, Jul 27, 2016
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  2. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    #62 mojo, Jul 27, 2016
  3. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    CIBhaFoVAAACBQb.jpg
    This graph is Arctic Sea Ice .
     
    #63 mojo, Jul 27, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2016
  4. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Bookmarked the Polar Ocean Challenge website. It's fun to track the expedition and read the frequency updated blogs and maps. Good luck to them!
     
    #64 iplug, Jul 28, 2016
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I checked the Russian map that includes wind and currents. It looks like 30+ knot wind from the NorthEast should clear out the channel on the boat side of the passage. On the far side, mixed winds that are no longer stacking the ice. Regardless, it is looking like the next 7-10 days they may be able to sail/motor the passage.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #65 bwilson4web, Jul 28, 2016
  6. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Agreed and big winds come from big storms.Loss of arctic sea ice is mostly due to wind .Like I said NOT CO2.
     
    #66 mojo, Jul 28, 2016
  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Loss of arctic sea ice is mostly due to wind@66. As I recall, one time previously you said that loss of sea ice was due to arrival of warm water from lower latitudes.

    Anyway I agree with both statements. Or that other local, proximate, immediate factors could be related to ice loss (or ice gain). One has but to look. The problem arises when by force of mental will, any or all of those is declared wholly independent of CO2. It may be possible to demonstrate that (sounds complicated though), but it carries little weight to declare it.

    Almost 4 years since I posted Arctic sea ice paleo proxy reconstructions by Kinnard et al. 2011. We may have newer readers here now, so:

    Kinnard.png

    For centuries Arctic sea ice extent varied around 10 million km2, but now it is less. Winds and ocean currents may have changed a lot. One thing that has certainly changed a lot is that pesky IR-absorbing gas.

    Whether or not CO2 is causative, we do appear to have a different Arctic now, and that's what the thread is about.
     
    #67 tochatihu, Jul 29, 2016
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  8. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Tochatihu, it must be said that you have the virtue of much patience.

    Much appreciate as well that you and Bob frequent PriusChat to share your data and insights.
     
    #68 iplug, Jul 29, 2016
  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Very kindly said. Actually what we have here is a world with uncountable variation in things and ways, form and function, pattern and process. Only very recently have humans stepped up to the plate with science toolbox and said 'we can figure this stuff out'. I find that hugely exhilarating. If most in rank and file do not, then only there is my patience, because I fell obliged to get others to get their toes in. Can be fun for you too!

    Ultimately my belief is in truth of science as a serviceable toolbox. It produces a lot of crap. Its practitioners include some with less-lofty goals, or agenda driven. Yet all that can be sorted out; refinement and self correction are among the tools. Its detractors include some with less-lofty goals, but I cannot detect what benefits they bring to the table. Champions of what worked well in 19th and 20th centuries? OK, but we had not forgotten that.

    That I mostly write here, in this group of Prius friends, can be seen as a lack of self confidence to bring the same messages to a wider audience.

    It is my conceit (in the 19th-century definition) that I know youse guys, because Prius. Don't know the broader public. Part of communication is knowing who you are talking to (axiom). When electrical engineers refer to communication as 'impedance matching', it just seems so accurate.
     
    #69 tochatihu, Jul 29, 2016
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  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I agree with Doug's analysis with one difference. I am driven by curiosity and that means getting up-front and personal with the facts and data. I can be persuaded but it needs to be credible data.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #70 bwilson4web, Jul 30, 2016
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  11. wxman

    wxman Active Member

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    Yes, and that's one of the problems with NWP (weather) models - there are some subgrid-scale atmospheric processes the can't be resolved and therefore must be "parameterized". This is a method that uses history of what typically occurs under a given set of atmospheric conditions. While this work-around is usually sufficient, it isn't always, and can introduce significant errors into the model.
     
    #71 wxman, Jul 30, 2016
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  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    There is a sailing ship with engines planning to circumnavigate the Arctic Ocean. They are waiting for the ice to clear from a passage ... nothing a submariner @ETC(SS) would ever worry about. But some things are universal.

    Source: Birthday bets, Sheltered islands, Multilingual swearing and Vodka - The Polar Ocean Challenge

    ...
    Anyway, whilst we have a brute of an engine, we need a small Generator. We had this lovely brand new ‘Panda’ installed. Made in Germany. As we all know, tested to an inch of it’s life and can work upside down whilst making coffee. Except on the north east passage… It reminds me 30 years ago when I first went to Moscow, I went to the Russian space museum. They had the Apollo/ Soyuz capsule. The American gear looked shiny and expensive, the Russian rusty but functional. It also reminded me of the story how the Americans spent thousands on developing an anti gravity pen, the Russians spent $1 and used a pencil.
    ...    ​

    Someday I should share how to test for a live circuit using a steel wool fiber and the time we needed to ignite a BBQ grill with jumper cables. Then there was this used 1966 VW MicroBus ...

    Bob Wilson
     
    #72 bwilson4web, Jul 31, 2016
  13. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    #73 tochatihu, Jul 31, 2016
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  14. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Privatization 101.....

    "Originally, NASA astronauts, like the Soviet cosmonauts, used pencils, according to NASA historians. In fact, NASA ordered 34 mechanical pencils from Houston's Tycam Engineering Manufacturing, Inc., in 1965. They paid $4,382.50 or $128.89 per pencil. When these prices became public, there was an outcry and NASA scrambled to find something cheaper for the astronauts to use....."
     
    #74 ETC(SS), Jul 31, 2016
  15. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    #75 hill, Jul 31, 2016
  16. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Didn't we ship the blob up there?
     
    #76 Trollbait, Jul 31, 2016
  17. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Blob@76 No that was to very stable Antarctic ice. Um, and imaginary.
     
    #77 tochatihu, Jul 31, 2016
  18. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Most melt outs would be benign. High local concentration of dead critters could be otherwise, so face-mask and washy-washy time :eek:
     
    #78 tochatihu, Jul 31, 2016
  19. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Favorable but weak winds are slowly opening a channel on the NorthEast passage. No way to tell if it will open in time for this season. However, the crew reports commercial traffic with ice breakers are making the passage.

    The NorthWest passage looks clear for the Alaska to Atlantic dash.

    LATE WORD: They moved out of anchorage and are enroute to the straights.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #79 bwilson4web, Aug 8, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2016
  20. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Would be nice if we could see the ice in real time as they go through this most challenging leg right now. Things can change so fast there. Looks like about 100 more km north to go at the moment.
     
    #80 iplug, Aug 8, 2016
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