Mercedes: FCV? No, EV

Toyota and BMW paired up. So did GM and Honda.

Nissan paired with Ford and MB is joining them. This group is pro-EV and perhaps lack in the number of useful fuel cell patents.

 

Go Mercedes Benz! The 1st step to solving your problem is to admit you have one. Pretty telling. Can't wait to see them compete in the EV world that is soon to be much bigger due to one company. hint: it's not toyota.

 

They are still ICE car companies at heart. So expect most of their plug in attempts to be PHEVs, and power ones, at this point in time.

 

One of the commenters on the above article did some digging in his response to another post:
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“How can the head of such a large company be so ignorant? Hydrogen Fuel Cell cars are EVs too (FCEVs). Instead of batteries, they use fuel cells to provide electricity. ”

He isn’t. This is a case of “lost in translation”. The article cited by InsideEVs is a quote of a quote of a translated quote. Here’s a link to the original interview in German:

http://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/Euro-am-Sonntag-Titel-Daimler-Chef-Zetsche-34-Wir-werden-fuer-Ueberraschungen-sorgen-34-4745009

A more accurate translation of the relevant statements is:

Q: What is winning the race in electric mobility, the battery or the fuel cell?

Zetsche: We are researching both and have very successful cooperations with good partners in both areas. We consider ourselves on par with the technology leaders. It isn’t clear yet what will prevail in the end. But what can be stated is that the battery solution has become more attractive in recent years. It has become more likely that it will prevail.

Q: Why?

Zetsche: On one hand battery vehicles have made clear progress in the problematic fields – short range and long charging times. Cars with a range of 500km and 20 minute fast charging will soon be within reach. On the other hand the big issue with the fuel cell – inexpensive and extensive distribution of the hydrogen – hasn’t really been solved yet.
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And that's what Toyota is working on.

I'm very excited about Tesla's Model 3 but I'm also a fan of Toyota quality. I don't see a need for Either/Or in BEV and FCEV. The resources required for both will determine the level of equilibrium. I'm equally happy to be an early adopter of FCEV now and I'm sure I'll also have an BEV at some point.

* if you read German - the above was translated from the 13th and 14th paragraphs in the wide ranging article published Feb 26. They also discuss the autonomous cars being developed by Google and Apple and the effect of VW diesel scandal on Mercedes' diesel sales.

 

The big issue isn't the fuel cell, it's the hydrogen.
We have to make it by breaking other compounds apart. Without mandates and regulations, the majority of it will come from natural gas or coal simply because it is cheaper to break them down to hydrogen.

Even if cheap renewable hydrogen came to market, it won't change hydrogen's physical and chemical natures. There is a reason why we don't have any free hydrogen here on Earth; it is a reactive element that doesn't remain free for long. That is also tiny, and can squeeze through materials better than other gases. In short, the materials and maintenance required to keep it safely contained in tanks and pipes will increase the cost of any infrastructure over than of other fuel options

Then hydrogen's horrible volumetric energy density requires very high pressures, further increasing the the cost of infrastructure and dispensing it. The tanks increase the cost and weight of hydrogen cars for this reason. The Mirai isn't over two tons because Toyota felt cheated in missing out the American car land yacht era.

FCEV can work with BEV, but they don't have to be fueled with hydrogen to do so.

 

Compressing H2 to 10,000 psi requires less energy than charging the battery.

Despite the cost of the tank, $58k for 312 miles range Lexus grade isn't as expensive as BEV.

Unlike Tesla cars with vampire drain when not used, Mirai won't lose range just sitting.

H2 infrastructure is the key and they are facing growing pain but that's part of growing up.

 

Diesels had more answers until a few months ago! Daimler CEO takes unusual swipe against VW over diesel ...

Mercedes Benz facing claim that its "clean" diesel cars are dirty - Business - NorthJersey.com

 

Charging the battery fills up the car. The energy for compressing the hydrogen is in addition to the energy of making it.

And a BEV wouldn't be as expensive with more subsidies either. The Mirai's price is just that, the price. It is not the cost.

I can see the Model 3 with 300 mile range being priced around the Mirai, while netting a profit.

The 12 volt battery would just die, preventing the Mirai from starting, like as has happened with Prii and other Toyota hybrids.
Same of the Leaf, it doesn't lose range like the Tesla if left unplugged for a week or so. It just won't start, because of that dead 12 volt, while the Tesla drives off for home or a charger.
All modern cars have vampire loses to their batteries while sitting.

Growing up doesn't mean suffering unnecessary pain.

 

I really hope you're wrong. Assuming no additional options, that would make the battery upgrade $25k.

 

I assumed options.

It's about $13k to get 20 more kWH on the Model S, which gains nearly 50 miles range. The 3 will likely need a more added to get from 215 to 300 mile range, but battery costs will be lower for the 3. I expect Supercharger won't be standard on a base 3, but be included with the max range pack; likely $2000 for that.

I'd expect $15k for the 300 mile pack, if it happens, over the base price. The 70kWh S w/o AWD is $68.8k.

 

I've seen others (over at TMC) predict as low as $5k (based on gigafactory ramp-up) and $7.5k. I hope they're closer. That's really the only option I'm pining for.

 

I'm not sure what this means? Battery charging losses are only a small part of energy usage, as is hydrogen compression. For example if it takes 2.4 GGE of electricity to go 240 miles and that include 10% charging losses then it costs 0.24 gge or 8 kwh for battery charging (numbers are reflective of tesla model S 70D in moderate conditions, it takes a little more in very hot or very cold conditions). Say it takes 3kwh to chill and compress a kg of hydrogen, then at 2.4 GE it is less 7.2 kwh in stead of 8, but that won't take you as far. To go 240 miles in a mirai its 3.6 kg of fuel (epa to epa), and if its 3 kwh/kg to compress and chill that is 10.8 kwh or more for the same distance. DOE says its between 2-7 kwh to compress and chill the hydrogen. There is of course distribution energy too, which currently is much higher for hydrogen than electricity.

I'm not sure how you are comparing. $58,000 is less expensive than a model S, but a model S seats more people, is faster, looks better, etc. That is why so many more people are buying a more expensive model S. A model 3 will also be faster and hold more people comfortably with more cargo room. Whether you believe that it will be here at $35,000 is anyone's guess, but I would say it is very likely that the model 3 will be much more car for a lot less money. There will also be an option for the model 3 to go as far as the mirai. My guess is autopilot + Dual (awd) + big battery + leather will cost about $55,000 that's getting up toward the mirai price, but really its a lot more car.

That does not appear to be a big problem for tesla drivers. For mirai drivers, yes they may be sitting a long time as the driver may chose anouther car to drive that day.

Infrastructure and costs are key. Today there are plugs in most peoples garages and 613 super charger locations with 3628 plugs. Tesla plans to double the number of plugs in the next 2 years based on current usage and model 3 deposit distribution.

On the other hand in california there are 15 retail hydrogen stations that comply to today's fueling protocols. This is far behind the number promised. California government and the US only think there will be 86 in 2021 in california. I would not count on a fast national rollout. Japan is doing better. They have around 80 and expect it to double to 160 by the time of the 2020 olympics.
+1

There you have it. The big question. Can hydrogen get to be as cheap and covient to fuel as electricity. Electricity has a big head start, and since people promise renewable hydrogen, it simply can't be as cheap as renewable electricity without governments putting their fingers on the scales.

Hydrogen is much harder to build than they thought a decade ago, while the supercharger network is proving to be easier than some thought. Tesla just joined with the german car makers and and the ford and gm to work on a 300 kw combo plug. That would fill a 100 kwh plug-in, in half an hour, which is slower than hydrogen, but if 90% is fueled at home, represents less time per year than a hydrogen vehicle.

 

I wouldn't expect you of all people to pull the supercharger stunt. Elon has been unequivocal in saying that all model 3 vehicles, including base ones, get SC capabilities.

 

Yes, Elon said it, but there's some ambiguity as to whether free SC will be included in the base model. Even the graphical presentation with "Supercharge Capable" in big text across the screen underscores the ambiguity. I wouldn't be surprised if its added as an option (or included with a battery upgrade) as with the early days of the Model S60.

 

What stunt is that? Saying Supercharger access might not be covered by the base price?

 

i'm getting confused between capable and free.

 

It sounded very much like supercharging is included. There may be limits to local supercharging if it becomes a problem. All wheel is an option and Musk said less than $5000. Autopilot safety is included, but autopilot (radar cruise, self driving, self parking, summon) is likely a $2500 option if turned on at the factory, and $3000 if turned on after like it is on the model S. Model S has a $13,000 upgrade to go from 70 to 90 kwh, we don't know what the S will cost. I expect to get a car in 2017 or 2018 you will probably need to buy autopilot and dual motors which turns out to be about $43,700 after a $1200 destination charge. The model S in 2018 should come with a $7500 tax credit + incentives in some states (not mine) - $36,200 after tax credit.

Mirai does not have the option for autopilot, or home charging, or awd. I don't know how anyone would think fcv are less expensive for what you get. The mirai is bigger on the outside than the model 3, but model 3 looks larger on the inside and carries 5 not 4 passengers. The difference is the batteries are easier to package than the fuel cell stack and hydrogen tanks.

 

Nothing is free, but many things are included in the base $35,000 price. Autopilot is installed with safety features enabled, but not auto driving features. To turn those on you need to pay tesla, then they turn on the software. you pay more if you pay them after delivery, but they simply turn it on and off with software, and are constantly improving it and updating software over the air.

Supercharger hardware and software appear to be included in the base car with no additional charge to turn it on.

 

that was clear as mud. if you plug your base 3 into a supercharger, do you have to pay?