The begining of the end of the Prius - Time

probably

 

it doesn't help the new prius looks like a lumpy turd

 

how do you know until we see sales figures?

 

I'm guessing that is why the response was probably [probably] and not "definitely".

The E is actually the Model 3, and it didn't/doesn't stand for everyone.
It is a median priced car. So about half of car buyers.

 

i think you misunderstand me. sales figures are response to the post above it.

model E (facetious) is the coming 30k? model, which will allow us to discuss the pros and cons of competitors. until then, tesla has no place in the discussion.

 

Quite possible.
Perhaps if you quoted who you were asking? Or, just add a bit more detail?

 

done.

 

Thank you, that is much more clear.

I see your point, however I don't agree 100%.
The thread is all about "the beginning of the end" of the Prius. Which is a direct comment of the near future of the Prius.

Competition is on factor that affects the near term success of the Prius. Therefore, the Bolt, Tesla and other electrics, along with plugin hybrids, and more fuel efficient ICE vehicles all play a role.

Frankly, I don't think it is the beginning of the end as the aritcle states. The Prius is the best hybrid out there in terms of fuel efficiency, cargo space, and name recognition.
However, there are more than hybrids now. The release of the 2nd gen PiP is a good start, but I am afraid it is not enough to do more than help stabilize the plateau hybrids have hit.

 

agreed. but the plateau is mostly gas prices in my opinion, and that will change eventually. when it does, there will be plenty to choose from, as long as mfg.'s don't give up hope with low sales.

but if you want to go back to the article, and hill's tesla comments. i don't think shrinking prius sales are much affected by tesla and leaf. yes, part of the market has been usurped by all of the alt fuel vehicles, but i believe it's mostly gas prices.
gas goes up, and prius sales will go up with it, along with all the other alt fuel cars.
to say tesla is not affected by gas prices is probably true, because the demographic doesn't buy them to save fuel or the planet. leaf is a bit different, but at the sales numbers of every alt fuel vehicle except prius, it's much easier to go up than down.

 

First, excellent point on it being easier to go up than down due to the current market share of AFVs.

Regarding the plateau and gas prices, while I believe gas prices have an effect on the market share of hybrids, I don't believe it is that large of an effect.

If you compare the market share to gas prices, other than an initial shock of quick price changes, there seems little movement in the market share.

File:US HEV market share 1999 2014.png - Wikimedia Commons

U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Retail Prices

 

PC members with remote viewing skills!

 

thanks, those are very interesting numbers. do you have 2015 hev sales, and prius graph for the last 5 years or so? i'm still thinking prius is hurt by gas and competition, and bev's are getting the tech and alt and enviro people despite gas price.

that being said, cali has such an important sway on the market, and for different reasons than the other 49.

 

While not a graph, here is some data in table form.

Toyota Prius - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

With the all time annual peak Prius sales happening in 2007, gas prices reached their peak in 2008.
To repeat, I do believe gas prices have some effect, but not much.

According to December 2015 Dashboard
about 384k, a 15% drop from 2014. Some of that can be attributed to the almost 30% drop in gas prices over the same time frame. More of it, I suspect, was due to the Prius getting "long in the tooth".

Don't forget, BEVs are not JUST getting the tech, and alt and enviro people, they are getting people that want more performance, a better ride quality and safer cars.

And, exactly as you said, California does indeed have a lot of sway on the market. Unfortunately, that has led to some companies coming out with AFVs ONLY for California

 

there was never really a boost with the gen 3, it will be interesting to see what gen 4 brings. i'm wondering if hybrids have hit a ceiling, but that would go to gas prices again, because the competition isn't selling enough to make a huge difference.

 

...

 

They had, but the gen 4 may help them break that plateau.

Hybrids get you one single advantage right now. They use less gasoline.

Non hybrids have been closing that gap.
Meanwhile, plugins and BEVs have taken the crown of using less gasoline.

The gen 4 might, from the sounds of it, be a better quality drive, which will help it compete.

Actually, hybrids have another advantage. They have been around longer, and have a great track record.
This alone will help them hold on for a bit longer.
It will take people some time to accept plugins, but it seems to be happening about as fast as hybrids were accepted.

So back to the title, it depends if Toyota adapts and builds more plugin EVs or not. Completely up to them.

 

I've been thinking about this and would add some missing details:

Hybrids get you one single advantage right now. They use less gasoline.

Gasoline whose energy content is ~33.41 kWh/gal. Even after passing through an engine, now 40% efficient for the Gen-4, we're looking at ~13.3 kWh/gal. This energy advantage means fossil fueled vehicles have a significant energy advantage over today's battery systems. The 30 kWhr Leaf has about two gallons of gas equivalent of range . . . good but still range limited compared to the Gen-4 with at least 11 gallons of range.​

Non hybrids have been closing that gap.

There is an efficiency 'gap' between Gen-4 hybrids and gas/diesels that can never be closed, the engine mechanical overhead. This can be measured by the starter energy needed to bring the engine up to and sustain idle speed. As long as the engine is running that mechanical overhead is there burning fuel.

In contrast, the hybrid has two tricks: (1) it runs as power levels that mechanical overhead is a small percentage and banks the excess power into the traction battery, and (2) turns off the engine as often as possible, mini-cycles, to use the stored traction battery energy. This hybrid trick will never be equaled by a gas/diesel.
​

Meanwhile, plugins and BEVs have taken the crown of using less gasoline.

They are much improved but non-Toyota plug-ins have poor engine efficiency and BEVs still have cost, range and charge rate issues. For example, I test drove a 30 kWhr Leaf last month but it is listed at $10k more than the Gen-4 yet the listed range is still short of Nashville, TN, 120 miles from Huntsville.

I've sat in an i3 and I like many aspects but it won't reach Nashville without running the inefficient engine. Worse, the engine fuel tank is range limiting and the interior is about the size of our 03 Prius. It too is $10k over the price of a Gen-4.

A Tesla meets the range requirement but at 3x the purchase price of a Gen-4, it is a luxury I can't afford. But Tesla has eviscerated the $100k car market and that is a good thing! Funnily enough, someone who can afford a $100k car can also afford an airplane to cover distances beyond the Tesla. Why drive at interstate speeds when you can fly at 3x-10x faster and get there.​

The gen 4 might, from the sounds of it, be a better quality drive, which will help it compete.

Perhaps but the efficiency improvements are more significant. Yet my studies suggest there are more gains to be made in the warm-up cycle.​

Actually, hybrids have another advantage. They have been around longer, and have a great track record. This alone will help them hold on for a bit longer..

The Gen-4 hybrid has and continues to move the goal posts yet I still drive a Gen-1, like today, for my urban commuter. But the Gen-4 has gone far enough that a Level 2 ECO with ATP (possibly Level 3 with ATP), fully meets my expectations for our next decade car for $30k.
​

It will take people some time to accept plugins, but it seems to be happening about as fast as hybrids were accepted.

One part of the problem are so many of the first offerings have been hobbled like the 4-seat Volt-1 and the Fords. In one aspect, they are like our Gen-1 Prius that has limitations from the 2001-03 technologies. But by working around them, the Gen-1 remains my daily commuter except when our Gen-3 is the obvious choice: (1) below 40F, (2) above 95F, (3) range beyond 3 hours, or (4) large payloads.​

So back to the title, it depends if Toyota adapts and builds more plugin EVs or not. Completely up to them.

As always, companies have a right to do wrong but as VW has shown, there are consequences. Still the 'sins' of Toyota such as hiding when the Prius is actually out of gas, pale compared to diesel-gate or the GM ignition problems.​

The establishment, automotive press still has a visceral, self-blinding bias against the Prius and not much better against BEVs . . . until they drive a Tesla. Yet even they reluctantly recognize the $100k luxury car market belongs to Tesla . . . a wake-up call. But those reviewers don't buy 10,000 new Prius each month. The ones who have the gold, call the tune.

What I've hopefully done is bring a little perspective. As Mark Twain once said,'Reports of my death are premature.' Personally, every fuel efficient car is a win. But hybrids like the Gen-4 occupy a unique price-performance spot in the market with today's technology. The sales numbers suggest there is a lot of life remaining.

Bob Wilson

 

what he said.^

 

Since a huge contingent of hybrid owners experience 100K miles or more before needing brake work - i'd suggest less maintenance, as well as saving gas. Just ask many of the taxi drivers now running around the landscape in Prius and other hybrids. AND ... although some feel Toyota has been somewhat constipated about moving faster with their plug in offerings, that too - potentially has more benefits than gas. Vehicle to grid comes to mind. And, as we look at the world of high performance - maybe consider Porsche and BMW and Mercedes racing/high performance vehicles. In the world of Formula One, the Mercedes Petronas team is virtually Unstoppable. All that to say - there's a little more benefit even right now then saving gas especially while it's practically being given away.
Now that if we can just get Toyota to drop the hybrid system into their pickups, like I mentioned above.
.

 

Agreed and a good place to start, tweak the acceleration profile and shave at least 1 second off of the 0-60 time. This would 'gobsmack' the automotive press in a way that the 2016 has only nibbled.

Bob Wilson