Featured Battery Factory Output Concerns for the Investor

there is so much demand, i wonder if it matters.

 

Not much of an analysis. Tesla looks like it has good packaging and marketing for the power wall. It isn't tied to the hip with Panasonic. If LG has better cell technology, Tesla will likely simply license it from LG, or do a joint venture with them. That is a win for tesla, since if LG has pushed faster than panasonic, then tesla's bev's will improve faster than expected.

I haven't heard though that LG is ahead of panasonic here, only that they have a competitive technology.

 

Source: Tesla Gigafactory | Tesla Motors

Tesla broke ground on the Gigafactory in June 2014 outside Sparks, Nevada, and we expect to begin cell production in 2017. By 2020, the Gigafactory will reach full capacity and produce more lithium ion batteries annually than were produced worldwide in 2013.​

I would like the report better if they'd actually had Gigafactory and LG Chem batteries to test:

• LG Chem - like the Prius, here today and tomorrow
• Gigafactory - like the IONIQ, dueling press releases

Bob Wilson

 

no question the chinese block and/or control many imports. in fact, we could learn from them. if they have a competitive product, and choose to flood the world markets with it, they can afford to take the hit for some time, or perhaps they can make it cheaply with near slave labor.

but it's premature to forecast what effect it will have on tesla battery sales. some investors will listen, and some won't. the future is a mystery.

 

Not sure what this comparison means. LG is hoping to ramp up production to a GWh/year, tesla is has the demand, and is completing the first phase of gigafactory construction.

A factory is not a product, nor is it a dark art. Tesla should be pumping out batteries at least as good as those in the 70D or power wall. These are real products. The LG factory is betting on the bolt battery, something that is still in develpment. It should be better than the volt battery, but could be quite different.

For tesla Panasonic was the weak link on the supply chain. The gigafactory removes this from a weak link. If lg leap frogs panasonic, then tesla will likely partner or licence from them.

Chinese problems are at least a year old. Tesla actually did better last quarter. Tesla may need to build chinese factories to get full chinese government support.

 

or the u.s. government could put a tariff on imported batteries.

 

I don't get how this would help.

Lowest cost batteries for US manufacturer will come from gigafactory or LG chem factory or nissan factory. Do you mean tarrif on imported cars?

 

Well perhaps they could swap it for the 'Chicken Tax' so we can get small pickup trucks.

Bob Wilson

 

Chicken tax simply moved toyota and nissan trucks to US manufacture. The thing that killed the small pick up is cafe and safety. The safety requirements now mean they must be engineered for US only, or designs need to be highly modified. CAFE favors larger pick up trucks as you get allowances if the truck is bigger. Ford, GM, Toyota, and NIssan all could build their foreign trucks here if safety requirements were relaxed, but ....

 

I am still confused about Lithium battery technologies - because auto/battery manufacturers do not want to disclose their battery chemistry details- but there were some patent issues for certain types of Li batteries. The nature of the issue makes the US situation possibly different than other countries.

For example, I don't think we know officially the PiP Li battery chemistry, do we?

 

i'm thinking a tariff would make up for the disparity in compensation for american factory workers vs china.

 

We mainly make lithium car batteries in the US. Many cells come from panasonic Japan. All the nimh car batteries come from joint venture between toyota and panasonic and are made from japan and shipped as batteries or whole cars.

The US also exports cars to China, but not many to Japan. BMW and Mercedes both build vehicles in the US to export. The us only imports a handful of Chinese vehicles.

Electronics are the US biggest import from china. Perhaps that can be used for China to help US companies, but as it is GM makes huge profits from vehicles in China.

 

Tesla's battery factory is a risky proposition because the technology is evolving so rapidly. Yes. You get your batteries wholesale when you own the factory, but you're married to the factory and the tech if the tech changes. This is the exact situation Toyota finds themselves in with it's obsolete NiMH batteries. If they change to the superior Li-ion batteries that their more nimble HEV competitors offer, their battery company loses its biggest customer. It's for this reason that Ford doesn't want any partnerships or other encumbrances with battery companies. They feel the technology changes too fast and they want to be able to quickly change with the tech.

 

that sounds good, but is not proven in the market. ford, gm, hyundai, honda, tesla, toyota, bmw, m-b, vdub, where are li-on proving dramatically more profitable? it's all about the end product, and who can overtake prius, before toyota makes the next leap forward.

nothing wrong with being married to a technology, if you can take advantage of economies of scale.

 

The 'patent shi*ters' put some obscene limitations on the NiMH batteries. Using nickel foil; high temperature separator mesh (aka., thin kevlar mesh); sensible "o" ring material; larger 'head space', and; sensible pressure relief valve, and the NiMH completes nicely with LiON:

• nickel foil - reduces the weight
• kevlar mesh - doesn't decompose unitl 600 C
• "o" ring material - non-oxigen decomposing, synthetics
• 3-5x more head room for parasitic electrolysis gasses
• pressure relief that also allows H{2}O replacement

In contrast, the LiON chemistries remain notorious for creating small amounts of inert compounds over their life-cycle. NiMHO does not. Replace the H{2}O and there is no known limit to their effective life.

Bob Wilson

 

8 million obsolete-equipped cars were already produced, how unfair to the customers...