Next Gen Prius Plug-in Battery Speculation

agreed. hard to tell where he's being open, and where he's being cagey. but i did think when they redesigned the gen IV, the pip battery would be part of the consideration. i really was expecting more storage space in the lift back, that could be used for the battery in the pip. maybe the 2" lower deck in the lift back without spare can be filled with battery.

 

3 Reasons Electric Vehicles Are Always Cleaner Than Gas Cars

No, you're wrong again. nice try though. it gets old having to show these types of things. Pretty easy to just SAY plugged cars are dirtier than to actually show it.

Happy Holidays!

 

who are you typing to, finman?

 

see the discussion starting in post #23. this interview was vague in both questions and answers, fueling more questions and speculation. probably what it was intended to do.

 

post #35

 

oh.

 

From the source of your article. Yes, they are cleaner than 34 MPG gas car but Prius is 52-56 MPG gas hybrid.

So, there are many states where charging from the gas engine is cleaner than plugging into their regional grid.

Life Cycle Electric Vehicle Emissions (2015) | Union of Concerned Scientists

 

And the average car on the road is 27.5mpg.

 

I have been wondering how PHEV will sell without CA HOV green stickers and the 2019 PHEV HOV deadline. The only answer seems to me is CA will extent these deadlines (my latest prediction).

 

Toyota could extend its availability to the entire nation to cover any lost sales due to the lack of HOV stickers.

 

How is that relevant?

PiP won't use average car 27.5 MPG gas engine to charge it's battery. It will use it's onboard engine.

With that ability/option, Toyota can justify releasing PiP2 to all states.

This also made it clear why PiP gen1 was only sold in states with the cleanest electricity. It was a responsible decision.

 

It is relevant because the Prius sells only around 120k units a year, and many plug in buyers aren't trading in a hybrid for it. So even in areas where a plug in emits more carbon than a Prius, it is still a net reduction in emissions for most of them bought.

 

I would trade my 2012 PiP for a 2016/2017 PiP if the EV range were double and if it took harder acceleration to kick it out of EV mode.
I can get 12-13 miles EV when I'm careful not to accelerate too hard at any time and not to drive more than 45 mph. If the new PiP only gets me 20 miles EV range, then the trade up isn't worth it. I would go all in if the EV range were 30 miles (new) so that lifetime battery sag would still be ~24-27 miles. I would also need the battery to supply a higher max amperage number.

How much does a KWh of battery cost these days? $400? $300? $250? 10KWh is $3,000 @ $300/KWh which is the price for some of the fancy options.
I'd gladly pay $3k for 10KWh, even go for $4000. Maybe that price is still too low.

 

Federal tax credit gives $417 per kWh so, it has to cost more than that.

Tesla and LG are said to be at $140 per kWh but that's probably at cell level.

Even with the BMS and pack level cost could be below $417. That's for EV battery with low power density tho.

Higher power density pack for PHV cost more but $417 per kWh is basically giving out free battery up to 16 kWh (perhaps even more than cost).

I think the question becomes what negative effects does the sizeand weight of the pack do to a plugin hybrid.

I am in the same boat as you. I have 8.5 miles one way without ability to charge at work. I would upgrade if gas engine is more efficient, cargo space over 22 cu. Ft, with spare tire and EV range is above 20 miles.

 

I don't think there's any language in the federal tax credit that require the actual pack cost to be above $417/kWh. Tesla's estimated to be around $250/kWh all in these days, so ~$125/kWh might be possible once the gigafactory is up.

Why Tesla Batteries Are Cheap Enough To Prevent New Power Plants

 

Exactly. When the incentive is higher than the actual cost, red flag should go up right? Nope.

 

i suspect space will be the most limiting factor. they didn't design gen IV with pip battery as a priority.

 

It depends. If the projected savings of a subsidy are greater than the amount of the subsidy, I don't see any issue with it being more than the production cost. On the other hand, if the projected savings aren't near the subsidy amount, then it should probably be scaled back.

 

the government is (should be) more concerned about sales, than kWh cost.