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Next Gen Prius Plug-in Battery Speculation

Discussion in 'Gen 4 Prius Main Forum' started by iplug, Nov 23, 2015.

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  1. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Just some iPlug musings:

    Most of the rumors thus far suggest a battery range in the ballpark of ~20 miles EV.

    But with continued improvements in lithium battery costs and some energy density improvements, and a big federal tax credit remaining, why stop there?

    Of course the heavier the battery pack gets, the worse mpg and cargo space becomes. But if lithium battery costs are really dropping significantly, Toyota could capitalize well and go GM style :whistle::Dand put in as much as a ~16kWhr battery to get the max $7,500 federal tax credit.

    Didn't Toyota say the center of mass shifted forward on the gen 4 lift back? A heavier battery in the hatch lower floor area would pull this back again, but with more rear weight to spare.

    Also, anyone know if some of the extra cargo space goes to the spare tire area? The newest gen lift back has reportedly gained substantial cargo space.
     
    #1 iplug, Nov 23, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2015
  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    other than where to fit the battery, and how the extra weight would affect mpg's, i guess the only other question is, how much more would it cost minus the extra 5k fed credit?
     
    #2 bisco, Nov 23, 2015
  3. Tideland Prius

    Tideland Prius Moderator of the North
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    I'll be interested to see where they place the battery. Will they try to keep it under the rear seat (less likely) or just say "meh, just stuff it back where it used to be" (more likely). Or maybe they'll do a T shape like GM.
     
    #3 Tideland Prius, Nov 24, 2015
  4. KrPtNk

    KrPtNk Active Member

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    In the video walkthrough that Danny made with the Toyota representative, the representative made an oblique reference to the new plug in battery design which he couldn't yet discuss. Maybe water boarding will be in our information gathering tool box again, soon.
     
    #4 KrPtNk, Nov 24, 2015
  5. Navigare

    Navigare Active Member

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    #5 Navigare, Nov 24, 2015
  6. KrPtNk

    KrPtNk Active Member

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    Thanks for the post. If that is an accurate representation of the 2nd gen, I could see it looking good in the dark gray or black.
     
    #6 KrPtNk, Nov 24, 2015
  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    thanks! 26 to 50 km = 11 - 22 miles? i think they have room to pull that off, maybe stay with fixed rear axle.
     
    #7 bisco, Nov 24, 2015
  8. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    If Toyota can hold the same mpg, double the EV would be quite nice.
     
    #8 iplug, Nov 24, 2015
  9. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    I don't really want a big batt but I think they have to make it a notch bigger to capture Fed/State incentives and market. I am thinking (from posts a while back) that CA maybe set some ZEV credit guidelines that require a bigger batt than current PiP. Ideally we get more EV miles but not too much more kwhr batt size so it does not take too much juice to charge it.
     
    #9 wjtracy, Nov 25, 2015
  10. TonyPSchaefer

    TonyPSchaefer Your Friendly Moderator
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    I have two lines of reasoning:
    • The Federal tax credit is only in the US; Toyota and the Prius are global. I would seriously doubt that they make their global decisions based solely on a single country's driver's desire to max out a tax incentive.
    • Toyota has stressed over and over that they believe there is more benefit in a smaller battery coupled with a highly efficient ICE, that drives as a full hybrid when the charged battery is depleted. Every step of the way, they have proven their commitment to this belief.
     
    #10 TonyPSchaefer, Nov 25, 2015
    usbseawolf2000 and iplug like this.
  11. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Yeah, seems doubtful Toyota would shift their strategy.

    However, one of the reasons I was thinking it’s not out of the realm of impossible is that Toyota has already been selling most of their Plug-in Prii in the United States:

    [​IMG]
    Worldwide Toyota Prius Plug-In Sales On The Graphs

    Certainly not to the degree that GM does where they sell almost 90% of their Volts in the U.S.. But if Toyota did decide to change path, they still have the majority of their 200,000 vehicle federal tax credits to play with.
     
    #11 iplug, Nov 25, 2015
  12. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Carpool-Lane Access: Very Important For Electric-Car Adoption, It Turns Out

    My theory is >60% of PiPs were sold in Ca. due to the HOV incentives.

    With the loss of green HOV stickers (presumably? they keep issuing more) the next PiP will have a major challenge to match the PiP1's USA sales. So it better be good if it's going to sell. It'll be interesting to see Toyota's philosophy when it comes out.

    Here in Va., where we were the first state to give hybrids free HOV access and see sales take off, we are now going to HOT lanes with no green car special access. It'll take until 2019/2020 or so to reconstruct HOT lanes everywhere it matters, but it's coming.
     
    #12 wjtracy, Nov 25, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2015
  13. Tideland Prius

    Tideland Prius Moderator of the North
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    Considering that the U.S. is Toyota's biggest market (see iplug's graph), I would think they would try to capitalize on that. Also, where are the strictest regulations? I suspect it's the U.S. as well (since they'll probably push FC in Japan and there's no incentives in Europe for the time being unless it's BEV but even then, the taxes make importing PHVs and EVs expensive).
     
    #13 Tideland Prius, Nov 25, 2015
  14. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    none of these cars are going to sell well. so what would toyota have to do? they'll probably stick with a small increase to 15-20 miles total. and i only think they'll increase it at all because they said they would.

    they could sell more by offering it nationwide than they could by doing anything else.
     
    #14 bisco, Nov 26, 2015
  15. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Someone in another thread posted some tear down pics of the Gen 4 at the L.A. auto show:
    Post#40:
    San Francisco Auto Show Nov 2015 (Pics) | Page 2 | PriusChat

    I'm probably not imaginative enough here nor have seen a torn down Gen 3 to compare, but I would bet money on Bisco's predictions. Hard to see stuffing a large battery under the rear seat and/or lower cargo area. Hope to be wrong and surprised to the upside, but 20 miles EV would be ok if holding the mpg line.
     
    #15 iplug, Nov 27, 2015
    roflwaffle and bisco like this.
  16. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    They still have to get people to buy the car, and people say they want more EV range. Toyota doesn't have to go Volt range, but a bump to 20 miles will make it more attractive.
    It also appears that North America might be their only real market for the car.
     
    #16 Trollbait, Nov 30, 2015
  17. roflwaffle

    roflwaffle Member

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    If Toyota doesn't change anything on the pip, I'm guessing we'll see ~6+kWh (deck height would be the same as the version with the spare). If they move the gas tank to where the smaller battery is and modify the rear pan to have the same depth as the spare tire well all the way around and poke out under the rear cross-member/seats, they may have enough room for a ~10+kWh battery.
     
    #17 roflwaffle, Dec 8, 2015
  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    would 7.5 kWh garner a larger fed credit?
     
    #18 bisco, Dec 8, 2015
  19. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Yes. I think in that case it would be $3,959.50.

    The credit is equal to the sum of: (1) $2,500, plus (2) for a vehicle which draws propulsion energy from a battery with at least 5 kilowatt hours of capacity, $417, plus an additional $417 for each kilowatt hour of battery capacity in excess of 5 kilowatt hours. Under § 30D(b)(3), that portion of the credit determined by battery capacity cannot exceed $5,000. Therefore, the total amount of the credit allowed for a vehicle is limited to $7,500...​

    Internal Revenue Bulletin - November 30, 2009 - Notice 2009-89

    Based on other PHEVs, it's looks like there is credit for fractions of a kWh.

    But for a nicer round marketing $4000 credit, just bump the capacity to 7.6 kWh. Looks like that is what Ford did.
     
    #19 iplug, Dec 8, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2015
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  20. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    thanks, i like the way they do that. at least we can hope for $3-3,500.+
     
    #20 bisco, Dec 8, 2015
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