Featured Emission Study; EV's Beat ICE, Cradle to Grave

The TOC costs of the Leaf already is lower than similar cars.
TOC of the Model S is also less than similar luxury sedans.

The only question is if a short range EV meets your driving requirements. It does for a lot of people, but certainly not all.
The only way to make the convenience factor quantitative is using statistics. You really can't tell someone what is or isn't convenient for them as an individual.

It is far easier for two car households. In our case, we find EVs far more convenient, and safe, than any ICE vehicle. But we have been living with them for a while now and have had our own misconceptions shattered.

 

Not if it needs a battery replacement.

And it is not even close:
Cash price of Nissan Leaf is $22,306 and of Nissan Versa $12,475
5yr TOC is less $20,977 vs $24,487 but only due to $7,500 tax credit.
2014 Nissan Leaf: True Cost to Own | Edmunds
2015 Nissan Versa: True Cost to Own | Edmunds

10yr TOC would be reverse esp if it needs new batteries.

So comparing these 2 Leaf is more expensive, doesn't meet minimum range requirements and there are is only one charging station on my typical route.

 

Well if you include the cost of fuel, that point is likely about 10 years out, but is highly dependant on cost of electricity and oil, which are hard to predict. You seem to have a long driving cycle. If you are regularly going over 200 miles per day (more than 20 times a year) push that point out at least 25 years.

 

You are making the same unlike comparison that was used against the Prius.

The Versa sedan is a bare bones compact sedan with manual transmission. The first feature listed for this trim on Nissan's site is air conditioning. It doesn't have cruise control, and the radio is a plain AM/FM/CD unit.

The Leaf is mid-size hatchback.

The Versa Note is still a compact, but has the hatchback, though it is shy about 5cu.ft. of cargo space. With the CVT, the price is $4000 than the sedan at $16,750. The 5 year TCO is $24,311. 2015 Nissan Versa Note 1.6 S Plus Hatchback: True Cost to Own | Edmunds
The price will go up a couple grand if want the features missing from that trim, but are in the Leaf.

The 10yr TCO can also reverse if you have to replace the CVT. Replacing the Leaf battery may recoup the extra depreciation because of the battery question.

But no, non-luxury BEV is going to work for you at this point. That's okay. No one is forcing you into one. For those in which does work, it is a far better car than the Versa.

 

Nice study. Its very different than UCS in that it looks forward instead of today, and that is likely less accurate but more important. I liked that they tried to estimate distribution of future plug-ins, and relate that to charging time and grid.

If we the clean power plan is implemented, which seems likely. Then ghg of these plug-ins will be even lower. The grid has cleaned up much faster than they thought it would in 2010 when this was written.

 

Could you please step back and re-read what was written previously. It is not about me, or what will or will not work for my situation.

The question was what would be a break point for BEVs to become successful mainstream car, and it was answered: when it costs as much as equivalent gasser, and inconveniences associated with it below tolerance level.

There are tons of cases where BEVs work for people now. Heavy subsidies, access to HOV lanes makes them more than desirable to those affected by these circumstances.

If you think Versa not a good example, how about Note? Honda Fit? Mitsubishi Mirage? Spark? there are tons of gassers with lesser TOC than Leaf (and more flexibility too, not just a purpose built commuter/grocery getter). But in reality only a few look at TOC numbers, most shoppers just look at the sales price, which would make Leaf look x2 times worse than say Versa or Mirage.

 

I would say 10 years as I answered before, but no one knows.

For now the category that is probably first is sport/luxury sedan. IMHO we are there right now with the subsidies, but subsidies will go away, and lower battery cost will make them unnecessary quickest.

Small - audi a3 versus a3 etron vesus volt versus i3

A3 and a3 phev cost about the same after federal tax credit, which makes the phev cheaper in california
Audi A3 e-tron - Detailed Specs
bmw is going to come out with a similar 330e.
volt and i3-rex compete here.

The main thing you give up on the a3 is cargo room. I think someone doing a comparison may buy the less expensive volt, or the more efficient i3-rex.

 

The point still remains the same even at 30 minutes. The essence was making the battery an independently replaceable unit.

 

And shoppers looking at a Leaf aren't going to look at a Versa or Mirage. They will be looking at a Sentra, Corolla, Prius, Civic, or Cruze. That is, a similar car. The Spark EV and iMiEV are the similar cars for the Mirage and Versa. For an honest discussion, the comparison has to be like to like.

It appeared that you brought yourself into this.

 

I think you are arguing for the sake of it. People who are shopping for Corolla, Cruise or Focus, Centra or Mazda 3, etc do not cross-shop Leaf, period. They are looking for full pleged car, not a purpose commuter. There are no Leaf owners who do not own a different car. The people shop Leaf cross-shop Volt, PiP, hybrids or cheap gas commuter under <$15k Edit: I forgot Sonic.

 

Tesla service centers are getting crowded

Model S Recall May Strain Tesla's Scattered Service Network

 

really? that's what u got? and this has what to do with emissions? thanks for the heads up, not. just sad...

 

That article starts out with many errors.
Just from the first paragraph:

You can take a Tesla anywhere to service alignment, brakes, tires, etc.
Second, they misrepresent the numbers. Tesla has sold about 110,000 cars, worldwide. The U.S. Has 69 service centers to service about 60,000, not 110,000.

As for the recall, this is the best handled, fastest response I have seen from any manufacturer to any recall. In this case, it is a voluntary recall, stemming from a report from one European owner, two weeks ago.

Will it stress their system, perhaps, we shall have to see. I'm getting mine taken care of tomorrow morning at 10.

 

Point well taken.

 

This little sub thread started with a comment about the Leaf having a TCO comparable to similar cars. As those here that have defended the Prius from non-similar comparisons know, similar refers to the cost, size, and features.

For your comparison, not only did you use Nissan's cheapest offering, but possibly the cheapest car available. Guess the Geo Metro is a perfectly valid comparison to the Prius then. And someone that doesn't even know how to drive a standard will buy one for their daily commuter.

PS: you forgot to mention that the Sonic is just an Aveo.

 

. . . Lutz was clearly persuaded by the success of the Toyota Prius, not so much as a machine or even a profit center, but in giving its maker a public image of technological and corporate leadership. GM could have built hybrid cars at the same time Toyota did, but opted not to when it didn’t pencil out as a profitable venture. But what Prius did for Toyota wasn’t just measured on the bottom line.

“The public image of GM is [Hummer] H2; for Toyota it’s Prius,” said Lutz. “It’s ridiculous—the Chevy Aveo was the best-selling small car in the country last year, . . . ​

Source: Kevin A. Wilson: Hummer H2, Meet Molecule H2 | Autoweek (October 2006)

I enjoy the irony that 'image' played such a big role in GM leadership . . . pre-bankruptcy.

Bob Wilson

 

So we should then compare Leaf to Audi A3? They cost similar? Versa isn't the cheapest car sold in US, Spark and Mirage are. Those 2 offer similar level of equipment to Leaf, in smaller package. For -40% of the cost. Versa is a good example, because it is similar size to Leaf, offered in similar level of equipment and built by the same company. As for the function there is no contest: Versa is a full pledged car and Leaf is HOV lane commuter/grocery getter. For Leaf to be considered for say LA to SF or NYC to Phily or DC trip range needs to be -200mi, and there should be a level 3 charger at every gas stop alone the route.
.
But back to comparing it costs Nissan roughly as much to build Versa as to build Leaf. Cost of the battery is the biggest difference. For BEV to be competitive cost of the powertrain and battery should be on par with ICE powertrain, and range should be comparable, not what it is now.
.
Though you seem to perceive this as an attack on Leaf in particular and BEV in general, all is stated is a criterium for BEV becoming mainstream.
.
Versa is Nissan's 2nd best selling car, Leaf isn't you know why?



Sad merge.

Since noone bit I'll take a stab. BEVs are very important part of national energy independence and emission reduction. Unfortunately they are not competitive with mainstream cars yet, they're niche players. Question is what would need to happen for them to become mainstream, what is the breakpoint?




Sadder merge

It could be less or more depending on how you frame it. If it is pure EV then more as you'd need to better battery density and reduce mfg costs. My money is on something like Mazda2 EV, that if they can deliver it for 16k. EV with compact very efficient onboard generator. There are rotary engines available with thermal efficiency 53%. Drop fuel cell, upsize battery, put onboard generator in Murai and you have the solution in next 2-3 years.

 

The Mirage and Spark both cost more than the base Versa sedan you used for comparison without destination charges. Being smaller makes them a non-like comparison.

The Versa, sedan and Note, is still a smaller car than the Leaf. The Leaf's total volume, by EPA, is equal to the gen3 Prius. If Versa to Leaf is a valid comparison, then the Corolla to Prius ones back when the gen2 came out were too.

The discussion was about TCO, which doesn't factor in the car's function. If a car won't work for a car buyer for any reason, they won't be looking at its TCO. Now, rental fees for when a Leaf won't go far enough is a buyer's consideration, but those aren't added into the TCO, just as plane tickets for trips beyond what an ICE owner wants to drive aren't factored into their car's TCO.

Yes, the first generation of BEVs have too short of a range to be appealing beyond a minority. Battery costs have dropped during the time span of this generation, and the next generation will have longer ranges. So they are heading towards the point where they will work for the majority.

Not at all. I actually don't care for the Leaf; until the 30kWh pack arrives, the range is too short for me. Plus, I was always wary of Nissan's design in thermal management of the battery.

It was the lopsided comparison that I have seen since I had a gen2, that got me to respond.

The Corolla sells nearly three times as many Prii, even if the v is counted, why is that?