Is 400 just the number after 399, or are we doomed, so we can stop arguing

Well, everybody dies. The critical questions are when, and how. In terms of planetary health, we've already ignored the "first, do no harm" axiom for so long that the impacts from previous activities will last well into the future. The sixth extinction is well underway, for many reasons including climate change, and it seems we're poisoning everything as fast as possible.

Do we give up, or try harder?

 

Just wait until the big news at the end of the year when they tally up world temperatures for 2015...

 

Year-to-date, 2015 is blowing away the previous record high years. See graph here: Global Analysis - October 2015 | 2015 year-to-date temperatures versus previous years | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

 

Curious step function between Dec 2014 and Jan 2015.

Bob Wilson

 

The way the function is defined, there is no wrap-around continuity from December to January:

 

What does Judith Curry say now? Has she conceded?
Of course there has been a decade or so pause in temp rises vs. model, so finally there is some movement to match the model. But it is an El Nino year so that means something, I forget if that impacts the data in general. Believe here in the Northeast we are not expecting the extreme cold winters like we had last 2 years. I noticed we seemed to have killed off the stink bugs finally.

 

"Doomed" may be excessive, but as agriculturally viable land is predicted to greatly shrink and human-habitable zone may be reduced to the circum-polar areas, the human numbers will be greatly reduced from current levels. But on the upside, cryogenics may allow us to preserve enough genetic diversity to avoid extinction even if the total human population drops to a few hundred thousand. Similarly, direct genetic modification may help some plants and animals survive with us, even though the dangers of such manipulation are very real, IMO.

 

Wjtracy, it is no large task to read Curry's website to see how things are viewed there. I shall not attempt to summarize.

Robert Holt, you are decades ahead in terms of how Ag land productivity might go. Long before human genetic diversity gets thinned, I'd expect the Svalbaard plant-seed vault to be used also in this way. But that seems far in the future.

400 ppm CO2 in general - for me, just a step along the way. I have no hope to limit it below 500. Whether we choose to 'hold the line' there or higher, depends on how 'tippy' ice and methane show themselves to be.

I expect short-term climate responses to be as (or not much larger than) in recent decades. The 100-to-1000 year responses might fully reach current pessimism.

 

There isn't any need to go looking for a Curry or any of the other climate deniers. We have their ambassador @mojo.

Bob Wilson

 

I could not immediately see where Curry addressed the headlines about 2015 temps being higher.

This gets political real fast, but going over 400 ppm exceeds the limits some say the Earth can handle. But the analogy is like being Captain of a big ocean going vessel, we cannot stop it on a dime. In fact we have not even given the global command to stop all use of fossil fuels. There is some work to slow down the ship.

I see one of two outcomes happening: as CO2 goes up (a) we will address by adaption if possible, but (b) if rapid catastrophic changes start happening, huge rapid sea level change etc. then that could trigger more evasive global action. I am expecting Option (a).

 

"While global tamperature rise has slowed global CO2 production has not"

It is possible to be irritatingly precise in such wordings. Hope you won't mind.
Global heat storage has increased steadily with atmospheric infrared absorption (largely driven by CO2 concentration increases). Most of that occurs in the ocean. New heat storage in the atmosphere (evidenced by temperature increase) varies among years, with ocean dynamics being the most likely explanation. Global climate models remain unable to dynamically partition this heat through time.

The Svalbaard plant-seed vault is a fascinating thing, not much at all related to war, but perhaps should be taken up separately.

 

The November edition of the above graphic is not yet out, but a local newspaper story points to continued temperature rise:
Seattle P-I (links to Washington Post): World’s warmest-ever November; Arctic warming twice as fast as rest of planet

 

NOAA Is Getting Bolder And Bolder With Their Climate Fraud | Real Science

 

I'm quite glad to see that:
(1) you are still alive, and
(2) can now reply to me without the desperation of 'STFU'.

But after your semi-prediction 'This year may end up above average for arctic ice' (Arctic Sea ice 2015 | Page 4 | PriusChat) failed very spectacularly, and not yet seeing any hint of that 'Extreme cold' (Extreme cold on the way, says former NOAA meteorologist | PriusChat), it is difficult to take your statements seriously.

 

Now it is. The trend is still up. That 'coming Little Ice Age' is still in hiding somewhere beyond the visible horizon.
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/global/2015/nov/horserace-201511.png

Global Analysis - November 2015 | 2015 year-to-date temperatures versus previous years | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)