Luxury brands place fuel cell bets

I love a good dose of sanity in the morning!

 

Except we do have some real-world proof as to the cost of FCEV and several bus experiments that have been canned. You can't stay atop the innovator chain indefinitely. H2 for personal transport, not worth the trouble or expense, full stop.

 

are there any governments who don't believe?

 

I think Uchiyamada and Lutz have a lot in common. Some people revere them for their past. Some think they are irrelevant and old. Uchiyamada still wields lots of power as chairman of the board of toyota, elevated after he helped akio toyoda take over as CEO. Lutz easily can get a spot on cnbc, or the WSJ, or Forbes doing an opinion piece.

Bob Lutz pushed fuel cells until he hated them, as they helped bankrupt GM. Uchiyamada has been working on fuel cells since before he worked on the prius. They both disagree with CEO akio toyoda that tesla will be a great success.

Simply pointing out the exagerations about fuel cells doesn't mean we are against it. It just isn't ready in the mirai. Toyota knows this. They are already talking about other models and a next generation to achieve any volume. Remember Uchiyamada didn't create the prius all by his lonesome, he even admits to not liking the idea, but as a engineer he did a good job.

Think about Jobs and Newton or Next. Both were total failures. Eventually Jobs took some of the software and ideas from newton and created ios, parts are also used by windows ce and windows 8. The OS from NEXT was later used for parts of Mac OS X.

The Skateboard layout for gm's fcv is now used in the bmw i3. Things can come from fuel cell tech, but it may take a long time, and may not use 10,000 psi hydrogen. While Uchiyamada has been working on fcv at toyota, he has used metal hydrides, methanol with reformer, 5000 psi hydrogen, and now 4th 10,000 psi hydrogen. Who knows what will work for infrastructure in the future? Certainly the mirai doesn't look ready to outsell bevs anytime soon, although uchiymada seems to claim they are far ahead. Perhaps he need to take a test drive in a tesla. Akio Toyoda owns a roadster. Japanese PM Abe loved riding in a model S P85D with musk. Although Uchiyamada worked with the team on the RAV4 EV, I doubt he really gets it.

FORTUNE: The Birth of the Toyota Prius - Feb. 21, 2006

 

If you look at the chinese government they are against fcv for personal transportation, but still are testing fuel cell busses and fork lifts. Most of the US government doesn't like FCV, but there is a rather powerful pac that gets things passed. California and Connecticut seem to be the state governments that are the most pro fuel cell, just like Kentucky and West Virginia are the most pro coal. I don't think we can take any of the pro-coal bills as really good for the country, but .... many people don't want to cross that pac. I don't think any of the european governments really believe in fcv anymore for personal transportation, but they need to explain why its ok to keep selling all these diesels.

 

There is no Chicken and egg problem. That is simply an excuse. There are cost and technology problems. Maybe they are solvable, maybe they are not.

The clarity was supposed to be that egg, and other than honda losing more money on each one, I don't see much difference between that and a mirai. OK the mirai looks worse, but I don't think that helps sales. There was a shift from 5000 psi to 10,000 psi, but the calrity could have simply been retrofired with new tanks. Think newton not iphone. People simply aren't likely to buy a bunch of mirais even if toyota made a profit at $40,000 apiece and sold them for $30,000. I guess you are calling the very real refueling problems the chicken. Say The US instantly popped up 1000 hydrogen stations in california for $3B (about 1/7th of gas stations, something that they probably would need) and charged $10/kg hydrogen to cover operations and maintenance, how many mirai do you think toyota could sell for $30,000 (assume the government ate the rest with a direct payment to toytoa, not a tax credit) when you can buy a camry hybrid for $25,000? A volt that they can recharge at home for $25,000 with a ($9000 credit in california)

I'm sorry it was kept on put forward that 5000-10,000/year and everyone else was wrong. This was going to rise in sales just like the prius. The fuel cell proponents at toyota mocked the tesla as a niche, rich boy toy. The mirai was gong to hit the mass market and sell in quantities tesla could never hope for. Even after the tesla partnership, what did we hear?
Appologies for not posting the wsj link, I can read it, but its subscriber or pay only. This was just over 2 years ago.

DailyTech - Toyota Passing Over EVs for More Hybrids, Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles

Both Bob Carter and Uchiyamada said they would sell tesla stock but it wasn't up to them. I mean tesla probably would never even sell even 20,000 vehicles per year. That fuel cell would sell much more, and quickly. Toyota made at least anouther $200M on the tesla relationship after that, and tesla is disapointing that it will only sell around 50,000 bevs this year, not the 55,000 it had hoped on the high side. Toyota hopes that perhaps they will sell 30,000 around 2020. I guess perhaps there is a market there, that clarvoint Uchiyamada did not see. Hybrids have not sold nearly as well as the two had been predicting two years ago. Maybe they weren't the best predictors of the near future back then.

Yep, that is exactly what chu said in 2009. Toyota and Mary Nichols in CARB called him short sited and wrong. Back in 2009 these stations would be so cheap and profitable, once people saw the $50,000 toyota fcv, people would just build them with hardly any government money. oops.

If they were so far off plan in 2009, only 6 years ago, what makes you believe their 2050 numbers? By the way those 2050 numbers may be right, but ... toyota only estimated fcv + bev for then. They have no estimate that says FCV alone.

I didn't say doomed. I said lets continue the experiment, but not believe these phony rosy scenarios, or increase funding while the products look so much worse than the promises. I do think the mirai design is a little disappointing, but I think the lowered 11,700 cumulative production through 2019. The strange number is the jump to 30,000 alone in 2020. I don't think they have a chance to meet that, unless they have something so much better in development. I have not seen what is in development, but its got to be so much better than the mirai to meet those numbers. Honda seems to be gunning for 35,000/year bev, phev, and fcv on the clarity platform for 2021. That seems much more reasonable. If fuel cells get breakthrough they can up the number, but they are only thinking 1500/year to start on the gen III clarity fcv.

How can I be impeding the roll out. I have nothing to do with CARB, METI, or Toyota. I don't live in a area that toyota has ever sold a plug-in and I don't expect they will sell a fuel cell vehicle in austin for at least 20 years. You must think I have super powers. If I did I don't think I would be using them to impede the roll out. Toyota seems to be doing that well on their own.

They are too expensive for commercialization. They need technical breakthroughs to overcome this. Just increasing volume will not solve the cost problem of vehicles and infastructure, but R&D may. Why pretend that costs will fall so fast? Who is going to buy all the cars?

I think that Japan is perfectly capable of running a demonstration for the 2020 olympics. It is a small part of their budget. I think california and the DOE are spending too much on the US demo, but the dockets are appropriated. I'ld like them to finish it, but spend the money more wisely than they have so far. Definitely against raising higher fees or deficits to increase it because the demo is failing, you increase funding if the demo starts suceeding.

I'm perfectly fine with toyota investing their own money in fcv. I'm fine with the Japanese government doing it. I don't like the new bill in congress to increase US federal funding. Doesn that make is so clear.

I am not against the tech, but its not ready.

But Uchiymada had an instinct that the prius would not work. He manged the project well inspite of his instincts that the project was not going to work. He has admitted this. Both are old men that get honored. I think Lutz is an awful manager, and he was promoted way past his skill set as car designer. When Uchiyamada disagrees with akio toyoda, it seems he is often wrong. What makes you think he is right that plug-ins won't work?

I thought GM was actively working with Honda on the next generation fuel cell car. They are also working with LG on a 200+mile bev, and seem to have just completed a good redesign on the volt. I hope it is using some of the knowlege gained on the volt and bolt to produce a better fcv with honda. Since toyota admitted being behind in 2009, it seems inpossible that in 6 years, honda/gm could fall 10 years behind.

GM flushed over $2.5b of their own money on top of the federal money down the toilet to get to where they are. The US governemnt wiped out the debts to waste that R&D money during the bankrupcy.

Toyota promised to have demo vehicles running around in california before today. Honda and GM promised too. 5000 fcv demo by 2015, then the real production began. I don't understand how my writing in 2015 delayed toyota's launch so far in the past. Toyota has plenty of money in Japan to try to get back on track. The old cfcp was 50,000 in 2017. When do we see the 50,000 fcv in north america.

After they wasted $2.5B, and oil prices not going up, I think they had to cut R&D. Toyota has a lot more money to flush down the toilet. Maybe they will even get some break throughs.

I don't understand why honda gm teaming up on R&D is disasterous. They just get to share knowlege and probably spend less than 50% of what they would have alone.

By he, do you mean lutz? I don't think so from his book, but he sure talked them up in public, while his CEO was wasting money. He said he talked to engineers who thought they were a long way off. The money could have been spent developing hybrids and plug-ins We had it reported that toyota engineers are telling management they can't cut costs as fast as management is demanding. We will see if the engineers or the marketing people are correct. IMHO it will take at least a decade to cut the costs.[/quote][/quote]

 

Yes I firmly deny that if there were a ton of stations selling hydrogen, that fuel cell cars would grow fast. Its not just a problem with infrastructure. It is a problem of car and fuel costs, and car desirability. Toyota did not build a hydrogen camry, they built a hydrogen edsel. Well that is being kind. The edsel sold a lot more than the mirai will ever do.

Yeah, no! Show me anywhere in 2015 or later where toyota says it only costs them $57,000 for a mirai shipped to the US and fuel for 3 years. Everything I read is they lose money on every one. They do lose less than honda lost on each clarity, but that is what I said. Toyota has said the majority of mirai, over 90% will be leased not sold. That seems similar to honda. Honda will offer its new gen clarity for sale next year with a 5th seat and more powerful battery ;-) it will lease most of these too. California, Germany, England, Japan are spending a lot on infrastrcture per likely car, still it is really expensive. If a station needed to pay for itelf the hydrogen would be so expensive no one would buy a car. Do you think the roughly $20M/year in california and 4 billion yen a year is enough, or do you think they need to spend a lot more per car. Japan its roughly $60,000/fcv (fueling, payments to car manufacturers) and they hope for 100,000 by 2025. What do you think? Do you think they need to subsidize them at $200,000/fcv. R&D is on top of this.

They are mainly leasing to government and businesses now. The leases are for 3 years. Is there something you know that toyota is not telling us.

What do you want a pledge on each post, or you will keep making this bs up.
I want toyota to be successful on their fuel cell vehicles. I would like there to be advances. I have never said it is a problem that most hydrogen comes from natural gas. The cheapest renewable hydrogen comes from off peak wind.

I think its a problem when you claim hydrogen will get cheaper in the future, and at the same time move to more expensive solar based hydrogen. I think its a problem when you as a company (toyota) claim no one wants plug-ins but much lower numbers of fcv are somehow the future and proof that plug-ins will die. The lies simply need to be confronted.

What is this speak no evil or you are evil. FCV just are not ready for commercialization. They need tech breakthroughs. Probably if you talked to toyota engineers at a bar, they would tell you the same thing. Why does Akio toyota drive a tesla roadster and not a mirai? That is not a dig at fuel cells, but the answer should be pretty self explanatory.

 

oh, sorry about the FCV hold-back. that one's on me. <sarcasm>

I will NOT ever promote wasting energy with FCV. it's just stupid. I will, however, always look for an efficient means of transport for me and my family. Prefer my own personal fuel station. prefer it to fit my budget. prefer it now. okay so there u have it, i drive an EV. NEVER will a FCV beat physics. the Bulls$@t... it has that in spades.

 

yes, guess who put that together? surprise, surprise. not.

Why Hydrogen Cars are Less Efficient Than Electrics - The Green Optimistic

Nope, not out of line. just facing reality and physics. might want to take a look at the math.

and this one is telling:

Toyota vs. Tesla - Can Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Vehicles Compete with Electric Vehicles? - Tony Seba

from the article:

"5) Hydrogen is not ‘Renewable’!


Hydrogen is classified as ‘renewable’ when it’s extracted from water by means of hydrolysis. This method involves applying high voltage electricity to split water into Oxygen and Hydrogen. When you apply conventional electricity to do the hydrolysis you still have to burn coal, natural gas, nuclear, petroleum, and so on, so you still have dirty hydrogen.


We need to pause to consider the water-energy-food nexus. Conventional energy is thirsty. In my books Clean Disruption and Solar Trillions I write at length about the obscene amounts of freshwater that coal, natural gas and biofuels consume. By adding Hydrogen to that list we would have yet another way for energy to dry up our planet.


A well-to-wheels analysis by University of Texas Professors Carey W. King and Michael E. Weber found that a HFCV would need to withdraw 13 gallons of water per mile driven. The same study concludes that a gasoline car would need withdrawals of needs 0.63 gal H2O/mile and a diesel car would need 0.46 gal H2O/mile. That is, gasoline petroleum-based transportation is 20 to 28 times more water efficient than hydrogen.


If we use solar or wind power as the source of the electricity for hydrolysis then you could have ‘clean’ and technically ‘renewable’ Hydrogen. I say ‘technically’ because the world is already pumping water at non-sustainable, non-renewable rates and the massive amounts of water you’d need for hydrogen would just contribute to the world’s water crisis. A 2015 World Economic Forum report ranks water crises as top global risk, up from number three the previous year.


Powering EVs using solar and wind would use no water, according to Prof King and Weber. Plus EVs are at least three times more energy efficient than Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles."

 

oops. I think you hit it, but not chicken and egg. If no one makes a fcv that they can sell in volume, why would anyone, even big oil pay to build a lot of expensive stations or addition to existing stations? That is not chicken and egg. That is a problem with the cars themselves, and the cost of fueling/stations. Remember those miracles - technical advances - that hydrogen needs. It needs either that or hundreds of billions in government cash. Its not a chicken and egg problem. California, Germany, and Japan are all funding stations if the cars ever come that people really want. Toyota was there in 2004 when California first funded the hydrogen highway. The CFCP which toyota was a member, decided how to build the stations. The problem is far harder than someone just priming the pump.

I deny its a chicken and egg problem. Yes that is true. Unfortunately you still are buying the hydrogen hype instead of toyota's and honda's own numbers. There is over $100M/year going into fueling infrastructure, yet a trickle of less than 4000 cars/year is not anticipated to rise until 2020. The catalyst, well much better cars than the mirai or gen II clarity will arrive and maybe spur higher sales. I'm not fighting the $100M/year in fueling and the $300M going into government funded R&D. I'm saying 4000/fcv/year is a trickle for all that cash. Show me some vehicles that deserve it. I know toyota is spending a lot of its own money too.

Man I must be thick. WSJ, Forbes, Businessweek also must not understand. How does this mirai have uncompromised cargo space again?

First Drive Report: 2016 Toyota Mirai Hydrogen Fuel Cell Sedan | Transport Evolved
How come the tesla model S is the highest rated car from owners. Yes its not fair, there are not many mirai owners yet. The only one I read interviewed said he had to change his schedule to work with the refueling stations in Japan.

Do I have to post the internet ads and interviews again? You have the link that links to wsj from 2013. No market for EVs, but great market for fcv. How can we square circle. Is 3000 a year for toyota in 2017 the future of a great market, but 50,000 in 2015 a great disapointment meaning bevs are doomed. Was tesla overvalued at $190 when carter and uchiyamda said if it was there money they would sell it, because the future is dim, or was Akio toyoda right to stick with his BEV hedge? hmm.

Was the lexus director right to say that phevs are a trick and people won't plug them in, and even if they do they will run on coal. Really don't you remember any of that stuff. I'm not going to google it for you, you can look it up yourself.

 

Yes I saw that. It was from a 2009 presentation given to CARB. Toyota got the numbers wrong, and no longer use it. A bigger problem than the bad numbers is toyota is now promoting renewable for its fuel cell vehicles. Where are the renewable efficiencies? Yep if your are going to claim in the future fuel cells are going to run on renewables, this is a very bad slide for the presentation. But here is the full presentation, with slide 16 talking about move to renewables, and 18 talking about the 20 stations in 2012 getting 5000 fcv by the end of 2014.

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/2009symposium/presentations/yokoyama.pdf

I'm sure by 2018 toyota will have a phev out again, maybe the end of next year. It should easily outsell the mirai.

 

They were not stating facts, they were stating opinion!
This customer of Toyota's has had, for the last five years, all their needs met by plugin vehicles. As of two and a half years ago, all of our travel needs have been met by BEVs.

Toyota lost this family's business because of their tunnel vision on FCVs which won't be introduced in my part of the nation for years, most likely decades.
And even when/if they make it out here, a BEV meets my needs and wants better than a FCV ever will.

 

You probably should check on zythryns power profile before jumping to conclusions.
Here is the toyota USA sales chart. Are you saying that they didn't sell all those tundras and tocomas, RAV4s, Highlanders, Lexus GS, etc that have much higher carbon footprints than zythrin?
October 2015 Sales Chart | Corporate

You realize that is nonsense right? The grid is much cleaner in most places than the fleet average of toyota. . Please try again. The fuel cells probably have the highest carbon footprint if you include all the trade shows, single use machines, fuel station building, etc.

Please tell toyota this. I'm sure they will explain to you why its a stupid business practice, if you get someone patient enough. Try writing a letter. It may be educational.

Maybe once Lentz and Carter move to texas, they will realize the future of transportation in the US doesn't mean just a little corner of California. Nah, they already know its marketing BS. The thing they may realize is outside of California and tokyo it doesn't really work well.

Again. I hope Toyota is sucessful with fuel cells. I know in that 2009 presentation they understood that the mirai is not ready to be commercialized, since it is too expensive to build and fuel. They listed these things as condtions. It is ready for a test just like a clarity. Let's see how many people really want them in 3 years. Not many want them today.