FIRST DRIVE REPORT: 2016 TOYOTA MIRAI

An infinitely complex hand-built car that loses money on each sale is going to follow the success of the Prius? Don't make me laugh.

 

I hope you guys laughing now, come back to this thread 5-10 years from now.

 

And that sums up the rallying cry of hydrogen transportation...10 more years!

 

10 years ago, they said Mirai couldn't be built and sold at $58k. Hey, it is here and owners (not leasees) have the keys.

Mirai marks the beginning. It is a hand built limited production car but mostly with mass producable technology.

The production of the fuel cell stack and h2 tank will be refined to increase the speed, simplify and bring the cost down.

It is where Prius was back in 1997 when Toyota made them in limited quantities and started to manufacturer their own battery packs, inverters and motors, all in-house.

 

And those saying that it could be were saying it would only take 5 years. Toyota has already cut the projected number of sold and leased cars from thousands to hundreds before the Mirai became available.

Increase the subsidies, and the Mirai could be sold for $20k. That doesn't make either price the cost of making one.

I think I'll see an affordable to the masses FCEV in my lifetime. I do not think it will run on hydrogen. It is a poor energy carrier for a car. It has a low volumetric energy density, and the physical realities of the tanks make them heavy, and worse than batteries to package into the limited space of a car. The Mirai is as big as a Camry on the outside, but the cabin isn't much better than the current Volt.

Then there are the issues and costs of the hydrogen infrastructure.

If hydrogen FCEVs were to go nationwide, they would be far from renewable. It would no longer be a California hydrogen to national grid comparison, but national to national, and what odds are there going to be that a majority of other states will match California's 'renewable' mix?

What happens to those speed and cost improvements for the tank if the powers that be decide the water pre-filled ones are better, or if we should use hydride storage in cars? How about if on board reformers become practical.

They did so with less money from their government, and the Prius was not dependent on someone else building new refueling infrastructure.

 

Who said that? 10 years ago? 2004, some said by 2020 there would be millions of fuel cell cars roaming them US, that selling hydrogen would be profitable so it wouldn't have to be subsidized. When the governor of california stood with 2 of toyota's FCHV3's he thought for only $100M there would be 100 hydrogen stations in California by 2010. The governor had recoently canceled methanol, the other use of natural gas for fuel, because the fuel was slightly more expensive than gasoline, and the cars cost $100 more each to make. Money was allocated and DOE gave away a lot for R&D for fueling and cars, and paid for stations in california. 2006 GM, Honda, and Mercedes had fcv roaming around gathering data. In 2005, Cal-Berkeley focus groups found that range anxiety from lack of refueling would be a major hurdle for fuel cell vehicles. They found that environmental reasons had people more enthusiac about the cars before they drove them, but once they lived with them for awhile environmental attitudes didn't matter. 200 mile range seemed the sweet spot as far enough for the tanks, if ... there were a lot of stations and they worked well. Living with the cars got rid of fears of fires. It did not make people want them more than gasoline cars.

By 2009 though mood had soured. The clarity was out, and it cost honda way more money per copy than people were expecting. The hydrogen highway wan't getting built like promised. Here things were scaled back. Chu attempted to cut the Federal budget to fund better priorities, but CARB promised along with toyota that their would be 50,000 vehicles on California's roads by 2017, if the money was restored. Congress restored the money. 2009 is when people were saying there is no way fuel cell vehicles will get cheap enough to sell that volume in the next decade (2019), and those people appear to be correct. Now not only is the DOE saying it, but Toyota, and CARB now acknowledge that there won't be 50,000 fcv on california's roads by 2017, they won't be there by chu's date of 2019.

I thought the beginning was 2004. Funded hydrogen highway and freedom car. The FCHV3, which would soon give way to the FCHV4 or FCHV-adv with a 400 mile range and toyota's first claim of commercial (though in limited numbers) leased vehicle. The clarity, first mass producable fcv hit the road in 2008. The hyundai tucson was first to use mass production last year. AFAIK the only think toyota is claiming for their first, is they will sell instaed of lease the cars, but in small enough quantities that its not a mass produced venture. That they claim will change around 2020. Will we have 50,000 fcv in the country by 2021? I doubt it.

Absolutely. DOE says around $9000 if they get to quanities of 500,000 fcv/year, toyota said when they hit mass production, which I assume means around 2020, that their costs for the stack and fuel cell will be around 1%, or $10,000. Now in 2025 tesla claims it should cost them about $10,000 for a 100 kwh battery. The race is on. I'm betting in 2025 tesla is much closer, and toyota will still be working on it, because well lack of infrastructure will limit sales. By 2025, telsa expects that it will have built the infrastructure if no one else has. Chevy and Nissan will have 200+ mile bevs (not sure of the test) before 2020. Nissan, Chevy, Tesla, Toyota, and Ford already have more plug-in cars each (competiton of 5 car companies) in the US today, than Toyota plans to lease cumulatively for fcv world wide by the end of 2020. No one else thinks they will lease anywhere close to the 40,000 fcv toyota is talking about for that time period.

They better start working on those hydrogen stations then . Its only been 18 years since the prius was introduced. Do you really think in 18 years there will be 7 million toyota hydrogen fuel cell light vehicles on the worlds roads? Remember toyota's first prototype fchv predated the first prius prototype.

 

The market will decide. The people who can afford a FCV aren't stupid and thus will see the nonsense they are. Those dumb enough to be suckered in by the spin couldn't afford $60k for a glorified Prius.

The original Prius was sold below cost, but by about £3k, not £60k. You could buy two Tesla's for the manufacturing cost of the Mirai. You cuoldn't do that with the original Prius.

I wonder how many customers Toyota will lose once original Prius owners want something a little cleaner, and more high tech. Toyota keep advertising how little the Prius has changed from the original in 1997. That's nearly 20 years ago and not necessarily a good thing any longer.

 

So you don't like the looks of the Mirai? Well the other side of Toyota has been busy planning a fuel cell for Lexus. Now tell me you think this is ugly?!

 

Definitely ... interesting.
Where can I go buy one?

 

Start saving up. You should be able to get one at Lexus dealer around 2020. It'll be a Model S killer. 300+ miles range and refuels in 5 mins. $120k?

 

Free fuel for life?

Bet it doesn't have fancy back doors either.

 

Here is hoping domestic auto manufacturers start selling FCVs and actually compete. Their hands are not tied. It is the management and their vision or the lack of.

Remember what happened after PNGV Supercar investment dollars got wasted and GM didn't bring out a hybrid to the market? They gave Toyota 10+ years lead.

The same is playing out again with FCVs.

 

Plugins burn up natural gas and coal also. H2 can also be produced by solar directly (photo catalyst) or indirectly (electrolysis).

Both are independent of any primary fuel source. Stop your H2phobia behavior trying to paint all H2 as fossil fuel and all electricity as renewable. They are not.

 

Ah, this is a drawing on a chalkboard.
I doubt by 2020 I will have any public hydrogen stations within 300 miles.
The Model 3 will be my personal Model S killer.
I'm still waiting for the refueling to be as convenient as my current car. In 2020 you are promising a mch more expensive, less convenient, lower performance car with less room and more expensive to fuel??

Color me unimpressed, and I don't think they will meet your lofty expectations.

 

It's not phobia, it is simply admitting that fuel stations will likely go the cheaper route.
Also, the difference with electricity is, if you desire, you can choose how your electricity is generated. With central hydrogen stations you take what they decide.