Featured Electric Cars have a long way to go to make a dent in the Oil Consumption of Cars/Trucks

we need a real power mode that cuts mpg's temporarily. although it will bring down overall prius averages, it will bring in more people like vdub drivers, and increase overall averages.

 

i hear VW is working on it ...

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great market penetration.

 

I've been chatting with the TDI crowd and don't see them as being big numbers or ready to go hybrid or electric. Events in VW may force the issue and I see more attraction for a pony car.

Bob Wilson

 

We already know the mode VW perfected: Fake out the EPA test mode.

 

I don't think people realize how long it takes to move the needle.

Say tomorrow 10% of new cars in the US were bevs, or about 1.6M/year. To get to 5% of the 200M vehicles in the US you need to sell 10M plug-ins. That would take 6.25 years. There are a lot of light vehicles and it takes a lot to move the needle.

 

i think all know but the most ardent fans.

 

There are numerous issues plaguing alt-fuel vehicles right now, ultimately causing people to hold back on getting them.

- High purchase price. Not everyone qualifies for the entire tax credit, nor do they want to lease. Even though they offer a lower cost of ownership, many can't see past that sticker price. An $18k econobox that gets 30 mpg can buy a lot of gas compared to the $30k+ cost of most EV's pre-tax credit in their eyes. Turning it into an instant rebate would've helped a lot on this.

- High cost of fuel and lack of infrastructure for fuel cell vehicles.

- Short range on current BEV's such as the Leaf, combined with long recharge times and lack of charging infrastructure. Tesla vehicles mitigate this, but not everyone can afford one.

- Unknown long term reliability for BEV's. Many incorrectly assume the battery will go bad in a few years just like their smartphone battery does, and will cost $10k to replace.

- Polarizing looks, such as the Nissan Leaf having a love it or hate it look for most folks. And let's not get started on the Prius.

- "Low" gas prices. Otherwise truck and SUV sales wouldn't be going through the roof.

It'll take some time before plug-ins and other alt-fuel vehicles become more accepted. The prices and charging times are coming down, the ranges are increasing, and more infrastructure is slowly being put into place for those who don't have a garage at home.

Once a 200+ mile ranged EV comes out at around $20-24k with no tax credit and more charging stations crop up, people will start adopting them more. If gas prices go back up and stay close to $4 a gallon, that'll speed things up.

Till then it's up to us alt-fuel vehicle owners to help spread the word. At least two of my coworkers are now seriously considering getting a Chevy Volt after test driving mine, and I'm talking to two more who would benefit greatly from one as well, particularly as they live much closer to work than I do. The fact that they can pick up a used one for $12-15k should help.

I'm glad we're living in an era where these sorts of vehicles are slowly becoming viable alternatives to gas cars. It'll be interesting to see what kinds of vehicles are being sold by 2025.

 

no, we need a clever social media campaign that would neutralize the stigma of hybrid driver.
interesting how tesla managed to make their cars hip.

 

The next NSX is getting fanboys going gaga even though it is a hybrid.

 

I pretty much agree with all the points you made. The common theme, mostly, is the high cost. Time can fix this at least a little bit.
Otherwise it is up to the 1% (and top 10-20%) of income earners. People love to hate the 1%. But they are needed to buy these cars and lead the way.

Mike

 

Curious, what % is the Volt at?

DBCassidy

 

This doesn't surprise OR depress me at all.
It's simply the truth in regards to personal transportation and the world we live in today.

At this point in the evolution of energy usage and application, especially in regards to personal transportation, I think Hybrids, Electrics, even Fuel Cell are all still much more "Tend Your Own Garden" choices as opposed to change the world choices.

That doesn't mean anything negative in regards to personally making those choices.

 

I'd say the fastest growth rate is likely to be 30%/year, which will take 9 years to do 10x or about 1.2 M plug-ins a year or around 7% of the light vehicle market in the US. That will take higher gas prices and lower battery prices, and I expect both. Still 30% is hard to average. Let's check back in 2025 to see.

Now it will take a good while longer to get the US fleet of 200 Million vehicles to get above 5% plug-in.

 

Funny you should mention this. Just got notice of federal legislation that will be enacted in about 6 months. In short, the top wage earners (over ½million) are going to lose the entirety of the $7,500 tax deduction. Below those folks there will be a reduction as well - based off of income in the 6 figure. Yet many lower income people would have a knee jerk reaction that giving away $$ to folks more well off (than them) is a good idea. That said - I sure do hope our modek X will be manufactured w/in the next 6 months or so.

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Will be enacted, or someone wants to go through? Not really any money there for the budget, but it will make the tax credits last longer.

What about carried interest ($1.8B/year giveaway to people worth over $100M), what about home interest deduction on homes worth over $1M. What about corporate inversions? Isn't that where the real money is at.

 

as long as our government insists on fighting for middle eastern oil, things won't change much.

 

I mostly care about the NOT dent in my wallet. Both Prius are paid off and today I spent $19 for a tank in our 03 Prius. I also like the freedom to be 750 miles away in 13-14 hours at any time; tow several hundred pounds of oversized loads, and; power the house during power outages for days.

Bob Wilson

 

that's your only reason?