Mirai gets 67 MPGe - official

But soon all trucks will be EV too! So these delivery of Hydrogen will be a non-issue.

 

This is average energy to compress and chill. I'm sure if they got a large number of vehicles it would go down, but it fills just 2 toyota hylander (FCHV-adv) fuel cell conversions most weeks. Why pay a lot for a compressor? They upgraded to a compressor that could fill to 10,000 psi in 2012, but not an efficient one.

The station uses electrolysis to create the hydrogen. The price paid for the 18 kwh of electricity to compress and cool is really cheap compared to the rest of the system. NREL estimates that if stations are dispensing more than 1000 kg a day then they can get it down bellow 3 kwh/kg. California is not building any of these as the first 57, and NREL estimates no one will make the compressors efficient enough until 2020.

 

another catch 22. if only more wealthy wanted to go hydrogen ..... or maybe I should say if only more dumb wealthy people ..... nah .... why let truth come before hurt feelings. I'll just stick with catch 22
.

 

I haven't seen a single poll or marketing study that the wealthy want hydrogen over gasoline, phev, or bev. What we have seen is manufacturers (now just toyota and honda) and governments claiming that the "mass market" will accept hydrogen and it will be better because it replaces oil based fuels. Tesla is on the list of cars for the weathy as is the mercedes S, bmw 3, ford f150, and jeap cherokee. 5 cars the richest Americans are buying - MarketWatch Mirai is not like any of these cars, and really if you are a loyalist that wants to make a hydrogen statment (probably thousands but not tens of thousands of people) the $499/month mirai lease means you don't need to be part of the 1%, but you aren't making less than median income either.

As such these small quantities will be snapped up by friends of honda and toyota, government fleets (DOE, CARB, CEC, METI, etc). These are beta cars, not really made for the market, in beta quanities, waiting for technical breakthroughs or higher subsidies to sell. Japan is the most likely place for these, and then who knows, maybe there will be technical advances.

What will we be driving in the future? Electric vs. hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. | Public Radio International

Good news is they completed their first over 200kg/day station in california.
Line North America opens San Juan Capistrano hydrogen fuelling station | News | gasworld.com

Cross referencing CARB it appears this is 350 kg/day (about 90 cars) with a claimed high efficiency compressor and chiller We should finally get some real cost data for electricity, maintenance, operations, etc, number of cars fueled per hour, etc).

 

Gen2 stations would come down in cost, of course just like any new technology.

 

wow, clap clap, except it's in SJC, which is literally next to nothing. i mean honestly, who is this station supposed to serve? it's at the southern tip of the LA metro, so no one from LA can use it unless they feel like sitting in traffic 30+ minutes each way to get to it, and it's way too far from SD as well.

but hey, government money i guess.

 

SJC is perfect for people who commute from OC to SD, or for anyone that lives in South OC. When were you in South OC last?

 

How many people commute from south OC to SD?
I was in Los Angeles a week ago, since you asked. It took me almost 2 hours to drive at 2.45 pm from Torrance to Sylmar.

 

I believe FCV is the future. The same arguments about insufficient fueling stations was said about other systems such as gas and natural gas. Imagine what it was like 100+ years ago when someone put forth the wild proposal that there would be gas stations by the 10's of thousands across the country, even stations on the four corners of two crossing streets.

The electricity grid was already in place to charge EV cars, and solar on the roof is even better. But EV cars are expensive and they take too long to charge. Too bad because I love the simplicity of an EV car with no ICE. But even taking the entire ICE and all that goes with it out of the EV design they can't get the price down. On top of that is the degradation of batteries over time.

There are already home-based hydrogen systems using natural gas. Those systems, while expensive today, can also produce electricity, and heat, for homes. Like the gas station radical proposal, I believe there will be 10's of thousands of hydrogen stations across the country, even in the home. Of course the growth of hydrogen stations or home-based systems will develop slowly and it may be 50 years to reach an adequate supply for the masses.

According to ABC news today Toyota Aims to Nearly Eliminate Gasoline Cars by 2050, and that with 0% pure EV cars. Toyota projects that by 2020 annual sales volume of their fuel cell cars will be 30,000. Still quite small but they are ramping up faster than earlier projected.

I think it is extraordinary that nearly all vehicles sold in the world today are based on the crude (but highly refined over the years) internal combustion engine; so many moving parts, explosions, asking components to change direction thousands of times a minute. It is truly amazing that they work as well as they do. We should be ashamed. One hundred years from now people will look back on this late period of ICE cars will be appalled.

I believe the fuel cell car is coming down the line as a non stop train, regardless of arguments against it. I am happy to have the increased mileage of our Gen 2 and look forward to an even better Gen 4. But I see hybrids as a transition technology that will be phased out sometime in the future. It may be 50 years (and I'll be long gone) but at that time I expect the mix to be hydrogen based EV cars overtaking ICE and the world will be a better place for it.

Toyota Aims to Nearly Eliminate Gasoline Cars by 2050 - ABC News

 

Toyota's plan is not quite as extreme as some news articles imply.

Here's a graph:



They show a large role for plugin hybrids and also some BEV but the mix between BEV and FCV is somewhat ambiguous in the slide.

Another slide implies that much of FCV will be focused on heavier vehicles like trucks and buses with HV and PHV dominating the passenger car market and BEV mostly as local sub-100 mile commuters.

 

That's sounds about right, It's LA!
I don't have a number of commuters, but I would say a lot more then you believe drive south daily.

 

There sub-100 mile BEV prediction is based off dated data from the MITI LEV program. It was around the time of the EV1, and the best BEVs offered during that phase of the program had NiMH, with many still being loaded up with lead acid batteries. It is ignoring battery advances since that time. It is also the group think that lead to the pulled before sale eQ.

 

Toyota Mirai Hydrogen Fuel Cell Sedan Makes Landfall in Europe At Higher Price Than Tesla Model S 70 | Transport Evolved

Maybe those Europeans should cough up more tax dollar generated incentives like us Californians have to do
But hey - i'm sure its worth it

.

 

Why put out incentives when the government and friendly business simply buys the cars?

 

if their environmental policy is to buy a car that seats less people .... has less power ... less luxury ... keeps the transportation industry addicted to fossil fuels, continues their CO2 byproduct, and costs more money to purchase and maintain than a Tesla ... they're all thumbs up i suppose. As for government purchases - yea - it's already public money they're spending. But does that mean the European Community is no longer sweet on 'clean' diesel?

 

Michael Crichton termed the embracement of new predictions by organizations that had consistently failed in all previous predictions the "Murray Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect". It seem corporate PR teams depend on this. What have Toyota's previous claims about FCV been and how have they panned out? We actually have enough previous claims from Toyota to characterize how powerful the M. G-M Amnesia Effect is in this instance. (Really, 0% EV cars?)

 

I'm with Toyota on this. I don't believe in EV cars, at least not for our family. I can easily see how a family with more than one vehicle can have a limited range EV car for their every day driver. Just not us.

I also believe that FCV is the car of the future. Hydrogen production will be ironed out, zero emission cars are too good to ignore. I have no problem believing in Toyota's plans.

 

I'm fundamentally different in my thinking. With some homework and discipline, beliefs can be replaced with knowledge. So as a result of doing my homework on fuel cells and EVs, a different conclusion follows for me. Here are some points.

1) COST: The cost of EV and FCV is the same for chassis, suspension, etc. It is the power train that is different. The EV powertrain is a big battery, inverter, and electric motor(s). The FCV powertrain is H2 tank, fuel cell, battery (smaller), inverter, and electric motor(s). So the differential cost is battery vs H2 tanks/fuel cell. All present and future cost models show the batteries remaining noticeably lower cost than fuel cell/H2 tank. This not opinion presently, but it is not guaranteed for the future either. Maybe some magical Fuel cell material and magical H2 tank material will both be discovered and the last battery improvement has already occurred. I doubt it.

2) USER EXPERIENCE: I have a home with electricity. If I can put a H2 station in my house, why wouldn't I put an gas station in my house? I'm 100% serious with this silliness. The rapid fillup concerns are valid...for some folks...and quite insignificant for a great many other folks. So far in the real world with real users the H2 refilling complaints are immense and the EV home, EV work, and EV supercharging satisfaction are sky high. Ignoring this real world results of EV and H2 user feedback seems to be the exact opposite of what FCV supporters claim.


MOST IMPORTANT. While there is a difference of what we think the future brings, I full agree and support the need for sustainable transportation via whatever technology works.

 

We don't have to go back to 2004 to see the tens of thousands of cars promise by now. We have 2014

Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

That is a drop from 5K-10K to 700, 2000, 3000, 3000, 3000 - then 30,000 in 2020, before they even attempt to lease them the first year. Who knows they could make that goal. Other numbers
there were 123,049 easily beating the 90,000 estimate. The phv sold 13,264 versus the 12,000 US estimate, tesla fell short 17,300 versus 20,000 estimate (they sold more over seas so fewer in the US ;-))

Maybe toyota lowered their estimates for the next 4 years enough. We know they drastically underestimate the amount of plug-ins sold.