European Carmakers defend diesel to lower CO2 emissions

The question was where will be the break even point, probably not 500k

 

It is hard to answer definitively as there are several factors outside of control. Such as future gas prices, projected cost of maintenance, and cost of insurance which varies greatly by age/location. Per fueleconomy.gov Prius C will save $1,200 in fuel costs over 100k, and the street price difference btw both ~6k, take it from there.

I had an opportunity to drive both and wrote report here: Mirage vs Prius C, review | PriusChat

US gas prices are artificially low, and Prius C/Aqua is a better car, but not the better value. Otherwise cars are pretty equal.

When you compare EU small diesels with hybrids, the situation was even more in favor of smaller/lighter/cheaper non-hybrids.

Now if Euro5/6 made diesels more expensive, and they start taxing diesels more, this may change. But otherwise hybrid cost penalty is not in their favor.

The argument Bob is giving that hybrids/EVs are doing much better in city driving, isn't such a big factor either. Unless this is a taxi, most owners do not put many miles in city, and likely do not used car on daily basis.

 

Ok,

The urban areas of the United States for the 2010 Census contain 249,253,271 people, representing 80.7% of the population, and rural areas contain 59,492,276 people, or 19.3% of the population.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau: FAQs​

Bob Wilson

 

Bob,

I separated this into different thread, could we move this discussion over there? thx

EPA MPG calculator.. does it make any sense? | PriusChat

 

Euro6 already hit diesel cars prices. An Hybrid Auris is just 1.000 € more than a Diesel Auris with manual transmission, and the Diesel Auris is 2.000 € more expensive than the gasoline one. Ten years ago, Diesel and Gasoline cars were almost on par on prices.

 

Must depend on local market conditions as diesels have never been the same price as petrols in the UK. But I do think the rot has now finally set in for diesels in Europe.

And talking of the rot setting in, how about an electric camper van? (it's a size popular in Europe and Japan)



Dalbury Electric Camper - Campervan Range - Hillside Leisure

 

My biggest concern is that the EPA standards are genuinely unobtainable.

It annoys me how much global car regulations are dictated by California emission standards. Carbon dioxide emissions are more my concern than NOx - and should be so for most people living outside a few smog holes. NOx is a global cooling gas after all.

You've probably all heard people tell you that the US (and NZ for that matter) would be self sufficient for oil if they adopted a more efficient European car fleet.
Are diesels less divisive? How many of the swelling ranks of F150's sold in the US are part of a prius backlash?
If US car design wasn't under California's strangle hold of zero emission targets, maybe the US would have gone diesel and be oil self-sufficient by now?

I love the prius for its efficiency and driving experience. No "buts".
I love diesels for their efficiency and driving experience. I have a "but" for diesels. NZ tax law means that a 50MPG diesel pays twice the tax as a 50MPG petrol. Tax per km on diesel; tax per litre on petrol - about as dumb as Californian emission standards.
Diesels are nicer to drive on the open road. Hybrids are nicer around town.
Diesels have higher tailpipe emissions. Hybrids require more rare-earth processing. Electric vehicles need more coal-fired and nuclear power plants. But all three are ridiculously efficient.
The only winner is the one that gets more people out of gas guzzlers. Diesel won in Europe. Maybe hybrids will win over US.
Maybe the smartphone's the answer? Millennials Would Rather Ditch Car Than Smartphone Or Computer: Zipcar Survey

 

I posted this on the other VW thread but Robert Llewellyns rant sums it all up. Nice countryside too;

 

What standards are better?

No, not really. If someone said that, I would ask what numbers support that wild conclusion for the US.

Probably none. Everyone I know of that buys a pickup truck has a set of priorities involving towing, hauling cargo, or insisting on riding high in a big cab. However, quite a few Prius drivers also own trucks.

No. The "stranglehold" is generally desired by quite a few. Nearly every big US city in the 1960s was in a big (and growing) smog cloud. It was nasty. You may not like the CARB results of much cleaner air, but many do. A few of us old timers got to experience that nastiness first hand. I'm not sure how going diesel makes for any improvement in anything.

 

That's really cool.
Hay, take the Nitrous Oxide mask off your face

 

Video: How Can Emissions Tests Be Rigged?

 

Better? I'm saying they're unobtainable. I've heard politicians use the attainment of emission standards as proof that they are obtainable. That turns out to be BS


"No, not really. If someone said that, I would ask what numbers support that wild conclusion for the US."

I had a go at the numbers - like you I was curious to see if any substance to such statements:
USA uses 20 million barrels a day x 42 gallons/barrel = 840 million gallons/d
Why Are U.S. Oil Imports Falling? - TIME
66% of US oil for transportation - United States energy independence - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
66% of 840 = 555 million gallons for transport

USA fleet economy average 28 MPG
EU fleet average 45 MPG
Even with strict new rules, U.S. still lags on fuel economy - The Washington Post
(45-28)/28 = 44% less fuel

44% less for euro fleet => 44% of 555 = 244 mill gallons/day saving
net oil Imports of 5 million barrels a day x 42 gallons/barrel = 210 millions gallons/day
How much petroleum does the United States import and from where? - FAQ - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
The saving of 240 is greater than the 210 imported
Supports self sufficient for oil with a european fleet


"Probably none...."
- I can appreciate a good practical truck and use them plenty at work. But, from the bumper stickers in Colorado and talk back radio/TV in the USA, a truck has become a political statement for many. Hence I disagree with "none".


"No. The "stranglehold" is generally desired by quite a few. Nearly every big US city in the 1960s was in a big (and growing) smog cloud."
Great. But, meanwhile, global warming accelerates...

 

This is a chemistry problem. Although the quantitative numbers are obtained today by expensive gas test instruments, there are less expensive approach that provide 'good enough.' So we are typically are interested in:

• NOx - nitrogen oxides
• HC - hydrocarbons
• particulates
• SO2 / H{2}S - detection

To me this looks like a freshman chemistry test question. The reactants needed to detect these products are commonly available. Without doing a through search:

1. NOx - cooled after capture (i.e., bag) pass through distilled water to form nitric acid.
2. HC - pass through a liquid nitrogen trap to freeze capture and then use a gas chromatograph to measure molecular weights
3. particulates - ordinary filters
4. SO{2}/H{2}S - pass through distilled water to form sulfuric acid then selective reactions to precipitate

So which one of these would you rank as priority to measure, it any?

Now one problem is we know 'bad gas' can poison a catalytic converter and we don't really know your local fuels. Are there any fuel standards in New Zealand that would provide insights to what they may be doing to your catalytic converter?

Bob Wilson

 

US average is lower mainly because cars are A LOT bigger than in the EU.
In the US last time I checked the most sold vehicle is the F1, the most sold non-truck is the Camry. In Italy, the most sold car is the FCA Panda, which length is just 12 feet, which doubles the selling numbers of the second most sold, which is the FCA Punto, a car the same size as Yaris. The biggest car in the top 10 is the Golf.

 

The overall direct and indirect long-term climate impact of NOx from combustion appears to be complicated. However, its uncontroversial that it contributes to smog/ozone formation and thus statistically contributes to air pollution illness and deaths.

 

This is a good chart to center the discussion around.



Thanks for bringing numbers to the discussion. I will agree, a massive change in numbers will cause a massive change in results. Yet how realistic is that? (Don't get me wrong, I wish it were realistic.) What I'm having a hard time separating is how you think EPA/CARB pollution requirements factor in here. I would say CAFE standards are what matter here.

I confess, that "none" was a wrong answer using exact numbers. It would not take much effort to find at least one Prius owner selling their Prius for a truck. I would say as a percentage, it is extremely low. What is much higher is Prius owners buying PHEVs, EVs, and other low consumption vehicles. As for a truck being a lifestyle statement, that was true long before the Prius was around.

And what should we do? If we are to reduce pollution, doesn't that require pollution reduction regulations and regulatory agencies?

 

Simply because they block the use of diesel vehicles - a diesel ford focus is more economical than a petrol focus, and so on. Take a small hit on the air pollution standards to get a big gain in fuel economy.


"...selling their Prius for a truck."
Sorry - by backlash, I meant people buying a truck instead of a taurus, or what have you. Not because they need a truck, but to own a vehicle as far removed from a prius as possible.

"And what should we do? If we are to reduce pollution, doesn't that require pollution reduction regulations and regulatory agencies?"
Absolutely. My concern is not regulation itself, just how tight the standards are.

 

I meant "unobtainable" in terms of manufacturers unable to meet the standard. Not unobtainable in terms of measuring compliance.

NZ only has emission controls at point of sale/new, like Colorado and other states. Annual testing is limited to vehicle fitness (bald tires, rust, etc.). NZ fuel standards include low sulphur diesel, unleaded petrol, etc.
Actually, the removal of lead I find a fascinating success. Did you see that article demonstrating a drop in crime rate about 20 years after lead removed? Different countries removed the lead at different times, and all saw a drop in crime rate about 20 years later. Brain development and all that. Did removing lead from petrol spark a decline in crime? - BBC News

And, for entertainment, read this: Thomas Midgley, Jr. - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
The guy who put lead in petrol. Gave himself lead poisoning multiple times, killed employees with lead poisoning. Then went on to invent CFC's. I had to laugh at how he died - call me a sicko.

 

That is too bad, knowing the human nature this is almost like not having regulation at all...
What is the number of private cars in NZ per 1000? In other words: what is the degree of damage?