Why Do Fuel-Cell Vehicles Make Electric-Car Advocates So Crazy?

wait - I though I read these will also be available for outright purshase .... isn't that supposedly the big deal over Hyundai ? ... that you can actually buy one?
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Yep, and it might make a nice BEV conversion once the nearby hydrogen station closes or it's time the replace the tanks.

I think the few actually buying the Mirai will do so as a collector item to be saved from the crusher.

 

Yes they are available for purchase. IMHO this is not really an advantage since toyota itself said not many will be purchased. IIRC they are planning for 3000 vehicles in the US by end of 2017, with 10% or less (300 or less) purchased. For those 300 people, I assume they don't care if hydrogen prices are high after 3 years or maintenance prices are high out of warranty. I assume those 300 will be the DOE, Consumer reports, etc that want to do some destructive testing ;-) and some people that just want to own it, even though leasing is a better financial decision.

We have
GM first earth only fuel cell vehicle (1960s?)
Honda clarity 2008 first fuel cell vehicle available to customers
Hyundai Tucson (ix) fuel cell first fuel cell mass produced.

we need to keep making up categories to let more people be first in line. Its kind of like participation trophies for kids sports these days.

 

I don't. But I do have a timeline on how long it takes to replace or upgrade it---5 minutes. I imagine changing a ICE engine, Prius HSD/Battery, or Mirai H2 tank takes so much infrastructure and time to change, that it usually signals the End Of Life of the vehicle.

 

They said it was a pipe dream and couldn't be done. Yet, it is happening.

 

Who said that. We had the honda clarity in 2008 as the proof of concept. That showed you could sell reliable fcv at a loss, but that isn't the challenge.

What people said was too expensive to be a big part of transportation in a decade. In 2004 they said half a million fcv in the US by 2020. In 2009, many of us said there is no way there will be 50,000 fcv in california by 2018. California is even saying there is no way there will be 10,000. On track for less than 20% of the promise. Now Japan says 6000 by the 2020 olympics, 100,000 fcv in Japan by 2026; California is talking about maybe 35,000 by 2022. These are much more reasonable estimates. They use end of year, I'm saying by the beginning or the year, so my years are 1 off to give them the benefit of shipping to customers at the beginning of the next. My guess is Japan will reach there olympic estimates, but fall far short of 2026. California will get to 10,000 fcv then have trouble increasing past that.

Why are the numbers so low? There needs to be technical breakthroughs (Chu's miracles) for the TCO of the car to be sold in higher quantities, or manufacturers need to find some sales propositions where people are willing to pay this premium. Tesla found this sales proposition for plug-ins, but the tucson, f-cell, clarity, and mirai don't appear to be there. Maybe the next generation or 4 or 6.

To me the hurdle is 500,000 cumulative vehicles world wide as the proof of initial adopter market. This seemed clear at the end of 2003, 6 years after the prius introduction. Hybrids reacehed 1 M 10 years after hybrid introduction. It happened for plug-ins this year, and was clear in 2013, 3 years after the volt and leaf introductions, plug-ins should reach 1 million vehicles next year 6 years after commercial introduction.

These two things along with low oil prices will likely be hurdles for fcv. Some think they are a decade away from that magic the prius hit 6 years after introduction. Others think its the technology that is always is 10 years away. The original problem that california zev mandate was supposed to solve, is really solved by hybrids, unhealthy levels of tailpipe emissions. The goal shifted to lower oil use and lower ghg emissions, but again the mirai doesn't do that much better job than the hybrid camry when it comes to ghg. BEVs in california have lower ghg emissions and just as low oil use ;-) California may not be a great initial adopter market for fcv. Japan with the big spend on the 2020 olympics and few domestic fossil resources, may be a better market. I still think that magic is more than a decade away, but I hope they come up with some of those breakthroughs.

 

Why Do Fuel-Cell Vehicles Make Electric-Car Advocates So Crazy?

My Guess?
They don't.
Some EV Activists were simply crazy to begin with.

 

Or the crazy label is thrown out by FCEV activists to belittle the other side in order to make it easier for them to write off and ignore the opposition arguments.

I won't be surprised by when FCEV car truly becomes profitable. It just won't be fueling up with pure hydrogen.

 

LOL! Toyota has some very smart people. They are banking a lot of money in fuel cell technology, as well as other car companys. Toyota really wants this to work. They gave away their patents for free to help the market place make this a reality.

I hope it works, I like the idea of 300 miles per tank, 3-5 minute fill time and zero emissions. They just need to work on pollution control making hydrogen (nuclear, hydro, solar). The same pollution goal if plug-in electric cars can meet the same range and reasonable charge time.

 

GM spent more time and money on FCEVs, with numerous patents, and has decided to let their fuel cell partner, Honda, to lead on FCEVs while they work on plugins that don't need billions in infrastructure to have an impact.

Japan is a small natural resource poor, island nation. Building a hydrogen infrastructure will cost less in total, and it gives the country some flexibility it otherwise wouldn't have when comes to energy sources. That is why the Japanese government and car companies are pushing hydrogen FCEV. They are pushing them elsewhere for financial reasons to make this investment more affordable.

 

They said aluminum wire couldn't be done too. And yet, it happened too. Aluminum got real cheap, just like natural gas (for hydrogen) got cheaper. But aluminum wire, after enough fires, & other such losses, people came to their senses. The moral of the story is, just because you CAN do it - doesn't mean it SHOULD be done. Just because something happens, that doesn't make it a good thing. After a time - people looked back on aluminum wire & realized it was a stupid idea. If the industry had done their homework a little better before rushing headlong into production, maybe we could have avoided that stupid decision.

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My understanding is that GM is working with Honda on Fuel Cells vehicles, they have not walked away.

 

Aluminum wire came into to being during the Vietnam war, as there was a shortage of copper that was being used for war time. It was a replacement material for a short period of time. Hydrogen is here for the long run!

 

if you understand natural gas is non-renewable, & understand that even using the 95% we do as a source for hydrogen - that its reformation & delivery cost is hardly on par with a gasoline car like the Prius - one has to ask their self, what's the point.

 

During this time in our lives, the same could be said about Electricity. But Elon Musk did announce some pretty interesting news on solar/battery system for homes.....and it only costs $7,500.00

 

The point about over forcing a technology is totally correct. However, aluminum wire is the correct technology for many wiring applications. Specifically, ALL the high tension lines used in modern times is aluminum conductors with a steel or composite core for supporting long spans. The problem with aluminum was using it for house wiring blindly instead of with proper termination technology.

Overhead power line - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

Didn't say they walked away; GM is just letting Honda so the heavy lifting in making an actual FCEV. Fuel cell prices could drop to the point that they could work in a personal car. So continued R&D could pay off, and Honda is likely doing most of the work. The partnership gives them access to the mass of patents GM has on FCEVs, and maybe connections for US government fuel cell programs.

If the fuel cell prices do get low enough, that isn't a guarantee that they will work in the US. The big hurdle here is hydrogen infrastructure. FCEVs have a better chance in the US with onboard reforming of diesel, gasoline, or alcohol. Like hydrogen, all of those can also be made renewably.

 

I don't understand this parrellel. Batteries have been used on grid and off grid systems for a long time. The Lion just appears to be less expensive right now. Not really a driver of on grid solar, which is the bulk of solar.

Tesla did do something Toyota said was impossible. That is sell large quantities (50,000 this year alone) of a 300 mile (old epa city) bev. There still seems to be some of this old thinking inside of toyota, but the CEO did recognize it while it was happening, and toyota corporation entered a partnership in 2010. It appears culture clashes ended that collaberation. Tesla-Toyota Deal to Develop Electric SUV Fizzles - Businessweek If fuel cells fizzle in the near term, toyota's CEO may over rule is board chairman and work harder on plug-ins.

I don't see any technical reason breakthroughs won't happen for fcv given enough time and money. IMHO they have a much better chance of succeding in the intermediate term - next 20 years - in Japan, simply because it requires much less infrastructure than the US and fuel taxes are already high. The Abe government seems commited to $60,000/fuel cell vehicle commercialization up to the 2020 olympics. That's a lot of cash to get toyota, honda, nissan and their partners to work on making them better. IMHO I don't think they will do well in the US. I expect less than 30,000 fcv on US roads in the next 6 years. Maybe in 2020 it will be only in 10 more years.

I did not know about aluminum wire problems until this thread. It appears that people just swapped aluminum for copper, and did not properly change other devices that were designed for copper and not aluminum. Coding was fixed in 1974, so problems must have occurred, and been fixed, way before I could notice. It sounded like stupid thinknig, that you could make things exactly the same and people would be fine. I think the mirai falls into that trap, assuming people want it to be the same as gas, but more expensive with renewable hydrogen. Put in a bigger lithium battery and a plug, and maybe you don't need to build as much infrastructure, and you get better performance. Exactly the same as gasoline but more expensive is probably not a winning strategy. I hope they succeed better on the next generation.