Toyota negative on batteries because it has more experience than other others on them

(Humor) I would say it needs to be less visible. EV charging stations suffer greatly from being highly desirable parking spots.

 

Well, not where I work.
Which has a bay of about 4 nice charging stations, hidden at the side of the building, which unfortunately appear to be used only by a company car....a Leaf.

This is a relatively large employer, kind of sad that they put in charging stations and they are so under used.

 

You are in a position to help cure that problem, just like I am.

 

I am sure you missed my point. We've the first part of the movie so far.

Alan Lloyd (head of CARB and California Fuel Cell Parnership aka CFCP aka fuel cell lobby), determined that people needed to be able refuel 95% in 15 minutes and have 300 miles of old epa range. Oil companies would be happy to invest in the new hydrogen infrastructure, and hydrogen would be cheaper per mile than gasoline because the cars would be so efficient. California and the federal government would prime the pump with some money for the chicken and egg problem but by 2017 there would be 100 hydrogen stations and at least 50,000 fcv on the road, probably millions by 2020.

$3B in federal subsidies later, yes we know how much we have spent, and how much california is planning to spend, we have less than 1000 fcv on the road. Japan and Germany have kicked in a lot of cash too. GM, Honda, Mercedes, and Toyota have reportedly each spent over $2B too.

The question then is how many of these cars we will get on the road if we increase spending as the fuel cell lobby - mainly pushed by carb's head Mary Nichols and Toyota wants us to do, because toyota knows best and these plug-ins we are seeing on the road won't get any better, but suddenly some promises from the fuel cell lobby will come true.

Green Car Congress: California ARB posts final modifications for ZEV rule on fast refueling/battery exchange for public comment
First thing to note is Tesla was able to jump through the hoops that alan lloyd set up, and mary nichols without missing a beat modified the rules to make sure those evil plug-ins wouldn't have an objective measure, make sure that only fuel cells not phevs or bevs can get extra credit.

Why isn't there a 100 station hydrogen highway in california today? Money was appropriated.
California's struggling 'hydrogen highway' plan gets new life -- and drivers will pay - San Jose Mercury News

Doh! oil companies didn't want to waste money competeing with themselves and having stations without cars. Not really hard to figure out, but that is government for you.

OK so now they will tax the cars to build it. Still the problem of the fuel cell lobby picking who builds what. How is it working so far? Will we get those hundreds of thousands to millions of cars by 2020? Not very likely. Not if you ask the car companies. So why are we be asked to come up with even more money? I mean more than the $1.25B that is planned to be spent. The line was fuel cells would be easier to sell then plug-ins. That is why they got more money in the first place. How well have CARB and the California Fuel Cell partnership managed the contracts and stations?
Why The Hydrogen Fuel Cell Range Advantage Doesn’t Matter - Gas 2
CA Fuel-Cell Car Drivers Say Hydrogen Fuel Unavailable, Stations Don't Work

Here are some fake numbers for the northeast.
Guidelines Get Laid Out For Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Development Plans For 8 Northeast States

At some point there has to be a way to pay for the infrastructure. These first stations aren't working well, and the cats are too expensive. That is why you have to ask the question? Why should tax payers pay many times to favor fuel cell vehicles over plug-ins? I say do the test, but why expand it to the northeast, when the cars can't even sell in southern california?

 

looking at the superchargers along 95, i don't see it as viable (yet). who will get to 500 mile range and refueling as fast and conveniently as gas, fcv or bev? only time will tell. we don't know where batteries will be in 10 years, nor fuel cells.

 

This really strange but potentially good for FCV, platinum price is tanking. A couple years ago I almost invested in Pt thinking it should be worth more than gold due to it's miraculous catalyst properties. But it would appear my investment premise was faulty. Good thing I never get much beyond thinking about investing in something.

Platinum Miners Refusing Output Cuts Seen Deepening Price Rout - Bloomberg Business

 

No doubt, nirvana has not yet been achieved but long distance trips are certainly possible today. In the next few years, hotels will get J1772 charging stations so you can charge overnight and start the day with a full battery. Drive ~225 miles, charge 200 miles, drive 200 miles, charge 200 miles. That's 650 right there. Then either charge again during dinner and go to hotel or just go to the hotel and plug into a J1772 and then get dinner and sleep etc.

Many people would only be superchsrging once or twice a day while stopping for mid-day eats and bio-breaks in order to drive 400-600 miles.

 

i agree that it's coming, hopefully. i do think for most people on a long destination trip, their habits are fuel, food and bathrooms and lodging. after 10 years of traveling to florida, it's easy to see people doing the same thing we are. very few stop for more than a fe minutes and many eat in there car. they just want to get where they are going. there isn't much to see along 95 without a long detour. when there are enough chargers at every rest stop, hotel and gas station area, and $20,000. cars have a 300+ mile range at 30 degrees f, i think we'll be onto something.

 

I am quite certain there is a group of people that want to continue to do this long distance traveling, don't care that much about the cost of gas, and don't want to wait for their batteries to charge.

I just don't understand why that driver would buy a mirai. Perhaps that is the question to be asked to toyota, versus say a camry hybrid or prius phv (oops) or a volt, or a ordinary gasoline explorer or a highlander. And the first problem is the price. That guy that doesn't want to be inconvenienced on a family trip isn't going to want to spend 50 large on a 4 seater that probably can't carry the luggage, and hope that someone builds hydrogen stations where he wants to fill up. The third person in line in california seems to be waiting an hour to fill up with hydrogen, and sure maybe this is just a matter of spending more on the stations, but... there were supposed to be 100 fast stations by today, why would they materialize on I95, where no one expects them for over a decade. No fast fueling is not a mirai advantage.

I think people would rather have a toyota for that trip than say the outlander phev, but please toyota don't pretend its a mirai. I'm sure a tesla 70d, volt, outlander phev, c-max energi, camry hybrid, etc would be a batter vehicle for that trip. Only the tesla would cost more than the mirai, but its a lot more car for the money.

Oh all those other cars will be available on the east coast next year to buy for that road trip. The mirai has no availability outside of limited areas of california, so at least someone attempting a boston to florida road trip will not be complaining about how much the fuel cell lobby lied about easy to fill up, like current fuel cell drivers in California are doing.

 

And what if gas goes to $8/gal in ten years? There is a lot more in play than just the difference between a 10 min and 30 min refill.

The emerging success of BEVs will be 95% economic and 5% principle. The economics 10 years from now will be quite different than the economics of today. The pure physics of energy cost from the sun and energy cost from smaller and smaller crevices in the earth determine the future of EVs, not long trip stopping habits.

 

Were you looking at what is available now, or also what is being installed in the next 2 years or so?

 

i just went to google maps and tesla superchargers like jim said. but there is still the other side of the coin. no one wants to stop and charge every 100 miles, and not everyone is going to pony up for a tesla. we have some waiting on that side too.
where do i find the future superchargers?

 

i don't think anyone thinks that we'll be driving to florida in ten years in a fuel cell. does toyota really believe that type of technology will develop faster than batteries and chargers? your guess is as good as mine, but it's definitely a guess. i don't think we can rule out the possibility of a hydrogen transportation future defined by our current technology and knowledge.

 

the pure physics will determine the future of both technologies. i thought the economics of today would be quite different than 2005, but we're back in the same bubble, with an additional 10-12 trillion in debt. i have no idea what 2025 is going to be like. and anyone that tells you they do should be able to put their money where their mouth is.
it only takes one world event to change the paradigm.

 

Yes. But while technology will change, physics will not...and physics predicts the sun will rise and oil decline. Many changes predicted usually always show up later than predicted....and then take place faster than thought. It took a long time from the EV1 demise until Telsa showed up. Now Telsa is growing very fast. In terms of how fast other car companies grew, Tesla is exploding. Same with LED light bulbs. Long time waiting and then now their price drop and volume is immense.

I too cannot predict the future...but I can plan for it. A car charger is going into the garage even though I cannot predict when the present 2001 Prius expires

 

me too, but we all make mistakes. and on top of that, chances are, i won't even be here in less than 40 years.

 

Does Toyota? It depends on who in Toyota. Its pretty clear Aki Toyoda does not, or he would not have allowed the painting of his board chariman as don quixote. Now this toyota pr, plainly states that Mr. Craig Scott does not believe plug-ins will be able to do the trip because of all of his experience with batteries. His implication in say that is why he supports fuel cells and is against plug-ins is because fuel cells don't have this limitation. I pointed out the rediculousness of the scenario for those that believe the outspoken anti plug-in members of Toyota. Mr. Scott has no foundation to stand on, as all the past fuel cell lobby promises seem to fall short on deliverables. I absolutely agree that if you say spent $100B or $200B some fuel cell vehicles could probably do the trip, but I don't think anyone seriously outside the fuel cell lobby thinks this is a good use of funds. So I say to toyota show us the progress. Let's do this test in southern california, but please stop bad mouthing plug-ins and trying to obstruct their progress.

Well that is a reason for more R&D, but not spending above a limited test. If gasoline is $8/gallon and hydrogen $20/kg and electricity $0.18/kwh and a hydrogen camry and 200 mile tesla 3 cost $40,000 and a camry hybrid costs $32,000 .... I think a lot more people will be happy charging at home, and using battery swap stations, then spending more for hydrogen. Since gasoline can be made from natural gas, I assume natural gas prices and thus hydrogen will get more expensive in this scenario.

Remember the fuel cell lobby is all about plug-ins including phevs not being practicle but hydrogen cars for some strange reason will be sold in huge numbers. Toyota's own projections show in a decade fcv will still be expensive are rare. Tens of thousands a year for that company somime in the 2020s while plug-ins should be over 400,000 world wide this year, and growing fast.

 

i hope it's .18/kwh in 2025, i'm paying .24 now.

 

Sorry. oops. It should cost less than $0.12 cents/kwh to build new infrastructure in Massachusetts, but that would take 3 years and a way around the red tape. It appears that they need to build new natural gas pipeline capacity, grid upgrades, and new shiny ccgt power plants in the north east, and there is plenty of profit to do this without a dime of government money, but government red tape is in the way.

Of course natural gas and electricity are the feed stocks of hydrogen, so if those are more expensive in Boston than LA or Houston, then hydrogen is going to be more expensive too. Maybe $8 gas in a hybrid might be the best bet if the state governments don't get the infrastructure built.

 

i'm not arguing the future economics or technology. not defending toyota, but not condemning them either, because i'm not smart enough to know whether they are right or wrong. it doesn't look good on the face of it, but that's most people's attitude toward ev's as well. so it's incumbent for proponents of each case to prove their technology.

for those of us who like bev's, we need to do whatever we can to encourage re creating our power grid and electric production. not an easy task.