Hybrid Dashboard Summary: May 2015

I think in Austin we have quite a few hybrids used for business and government.

I know a few local businesses that were eyeing the tesla model X as a delivery vehicle. Some use the prius as part of an eco message.

But your are absolutely right take rate probably should be for cars, not trucks and SUVs as trucks and SUVs don't have good hybrid options.
Auto Sales - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
ytd in 2015 there have been 3.9 Million cars and 4.6 million light trucks (pickups, suvs, and crossovers combined).

That should put hybrids around 5% of the car market this ytd (june figures aren't yet in).

Hopefully the 2025 cafe standards will improve hybrid and plug-in peneatration into the light truck catagory. This year will add the tesla model X lexus nxh, and rav4 hybrid. Next year we should see the outlander phev. The big news is when hybrid trucks reenter

 

what possesses someone to drive a pick up instead of suv, if they don't use it for anything but personal transportation, is it a different mindset?

 

Yep, we have neighbor 3 doors down who dons a suit to go to work then jumps in a full size 4x4 Nissan Titan of course with off road package.

 

If they are the same size, the fuel economy isn't much different, and 4 door pick ups are easy to come by.
It is easier to load up a pick up bed; specially with bulky items, and the interior won't get dirty if the cargo is something like mulch.
Then the trucks are still full frame and RWD, while SUVs are switching to unibodies with FWD. That can be important to some.

 

Those potholes can be vicious!!

 

i know, i've seen women in dresses and heels climbing into shiny pick ups. it must be a cultural thing.

 

on a purely unrelated note, bruce jenner drives a huge pickup;

.

 

I tried normallizing hybrid sales to cars only (not light trucks) and it did not make a big difference. Hybrid sales still down on that basis, but not terrible about 3.2% Hybrids+Plug_ins in May for all light duty.

 

you mean caitlyn?

 

thanks, i'm not trying to make things better, (except by my personal choices) just trying to make sense out of the numbers. as always, it's a juggernaut.

i think it's easier to discount trucks altogether, and look at the top ten cars. i think suv's need to stay in, because some of those buyers go back and forth with gas prices.

i'm especially interested to see how toyota does, going forward with only one plug in, and that being only sold in 15 states and not having enough range.

 

Can't think of anything that would slow SUVs sales, maybe $5:00/gal?

 

...the only thing that surprises me is the gaso price is not lower. After correctly predicting $2 gaso for Feb_2015, I stuck my neck and predicted $1 gaso in some states by Feb_2016. At the moment I am looking bad but I still got 6 months.

 

Pick up trucks are about 14% of the light vehicle market ytd (1/15-6/15).
This may offer some insight.
Affluent Consumers Drive New Pickup Boom | Sales & Marketing content from WardsAuto

11.6% is probably the base rate of people that use pick-ups for work, hauling, or towing. 14% was pre-recession levels, but lots of those 10 to 20 year old trucks are being replaced.

 

June 2015 Dashboard - HybridCars.com

 

those are some sad numbers. the fed needs to do more.

 

Really isn't much they can do, or I should say are willing to do.

 

Yaris sales are up as they are being picked up by rental fleets.

 

The 4th gen Prius release will bump those numbers some.

 

I'm not sure what you think the fed should do.

U.S. Imports of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels)
Certainly Oil imports are less of a problem than anytime in the last 20 years. Oil imports are back at the level they were in 1996 and appear to be continuing down. This is from more substitution for bio fuels, more domestic oil production and of course now a decline in oil consumption. Now 40% of imports come from friendly non-OPEC countries..

Net trade deficit on oil as an percent of gdp has also decreased to only 30% more than 1996, so it is less of a problem. Price of oil adjusted for inflation has only doubled since 1996 and less than half of its peak of $145/bbl in 2008.

Cafe standards for 2025 ensure more plug-ins and hybrid choices for consumers.

Still oil consumption in the US is much higher than it needs to be. The best plan scored by economists as likely to work is to tax oil. Forbes editorial pieces thought behavior would change at $1/gallon, but a slow continuous push would help. $10/bbl/year would have a $40/bbl tax in 2020. That first $10 is probably needed just to stop road infrastructure from taking money from the general fund. If this money was used to offset other taxes it might be beneficial to the economy, and at low gas prices adding a little per gallon would not cause much pain. Still politicians hate doing anything to the fuel taxes or social security, so I doubt it will happen.

 

YTD Camry is down -3.0% while Rav4 is up 22.8%, Corolla is up 9%. Nissan Rogue up 36%