POLL: Which of these fuel-efficiency improvements do you expect to see in the Gen IV?

I think we need to keep in mind that the specific wording of the question is "What Improvements Do You Expect To See?"

Not what improvements would you most like to see, or want the most.

 

Yeah, guilty.

 

Well, if you want to get picky the question was:
What fuel efficiency improvements do you expect to see.

 

Could be the first Toyota model with active grille shutters
From looking at all the spy shots they probably saved weight with the smaller hatchback door, but the car didn't look any smaller. Even including getting rid of the spare I don't think they could get rid of 460 lbs. They'd have to make it a coupe (a real 2 door coupe with 2 seats not a fake one with just 2 doors) to get rid of that much weight. But I still voted for it because you can't underestimate the Toyota engineers.
The one thing I didn't see, is increased structural rigidity with the TNGA might help with fuel efficiency.

 

The new Prius should be an easy improvement over the last generation that came out in 2009. Engine, Direct Injection: weight reduction of 200 lbs, lithium battery (5 KWH) hybrid version (12 KWH) plug in version.

Range on electric 30-35 miles (Plug in) 5 miles on Hybrid version. Combined (EPA) MPG running on just gas 58 mpg (87 octane).

Toyota had a full 6 years to make all these improvements. I they don't make the 2016 Prius a game changer, they lost the game.

 

quite a few aftermarket rims now have 9 holes so they fit 4 bolt and 5 bolt patterns, you just turn it part way to pick whichever one you need.

 

to who?

 

to the coming wave of 200 mile range EVs from at least 3 different companies.

I expect eventually we'll see

Tesla Model 3 (50 kWh or higher)
Nissan Leaf 2 (40 kWh or higher)
Chevy Bolt (40 kWh or higher)
Kia Soul EV (will they step up to the 40 kWh level or just do smaller incremental improvements?)
Ford's unnamed 200 mile EV (40 kWh or higher)

and other overpriced options even less competitive than the above.

 

while they will pick away at prius, even a game changer, ev's aren't really the competition. (uh-oh)

 

Plus the other hybrids coming out.
Many car shoppers in the US will pick a 47mpg combined sedan like the Accord and Malibu hybrids over a 50mpg hatchback.
While I don't expect the Hyundai Prius fighter to match or beat that 50mpg, I do expect it to under cut the Prius price.

 

Lucky for us, Toyota knows better

 

If you think EVs aren't the competition why was my progression

Saturn - Prius - Leaf

I still have the 2005 Prius but there wasn't enough improvement between Gen II and Gen III to make me want a Prius over an EV.

I made the switch and now I'm not looking back. The gen IV Prius design would have to be insanely better MPG to compete, math to follow:

-------

I get about 60 mpg on the Prius for easy math and pay about $2.50 for 100% gas, something like 4.2 cents per mile after oil changes.

Assuming no surprises on repairs for the Leaf I expect the cost per mile to always favor the Leaf with the comparison currently at

~2 cents per mile Leaf (around $0.10 per kWh)
~4 cents per mile Prius (around $2.50 per gallon)

with my costs in TN and assuming gas to kWh pricing stays in the ballpark of the current ratio of 25 to 1.

and that isn't counting in things like free charging in my work parking lot or at some L2 stations in town that make it even cheaper to drive the Leaf.

 

If your choice of car was based on TCO, I'm curious how you calculated traction battery longevity and replacement cost.

 

* I bought the car used for $8995.
* It had a battery at 83% SOH.
* I have a 16 mile each way commute that currently uses about 18% SOC per one way commute
* I figure 45% SOH will be enough for me to continue commuting as is**
* at 6% degradation per year*** I can keep this up for another 6 years

** I don't know my winter efficiency yet but
1. I'll be switching to LRR tires before winter (currently on non LRR tires that the used car dealer provided)
2. I am garaged at home with L2 charging so I'll be able to preheat from shore power
3. the car has heated seats / steering wheel so I don't expect to use cabin heat on the way to work but I will on the drive home.

*** Car was originally titled in NC, it's now in TN. I don't know if the past rate of degradation will continue. No idea if the first owner did L1 or L2 all the time or what their driving style was or if the car was garaged. 6% rate may be pessimistic, not sure yet.

In short I figure I can drive it until 2020 without replacing the battery. By then I expect I can get a $2000 or less battery replacement**** or I can buy another used EV with better range and turn this into a short range errand vehicle. Not expecting either choice to hurt my cost per mile. If I buy a new battery I'm offsetting buying another $10,000 car.

I still haven't bought a replacement battery for my 2005 Prius and it's 10 years later. I don't think I'll put 10 years on the Leaf battery but it might come close to doing that.

**** I expect the replacement pack to be 30 kWh or higher by the time I make the decision so buying the replacement pack will increase range to more than when the car was new in 2012. For convenience there may come a day that I upgrade the battery pack even though the old pack is still usable. In that case I'll have the luxury of timing it based on desire not necessity.

I also consider the odds that the car could be totaled before I buy a replacement battery and if so the decision of replacing the battery is deferred to the next EV I buy.

If you want to know how I am monitoring the battery or what the degradation rates typically are we should probably take this to the mynissanleaf.com forums and I'll be glad to go into more detail.

 

because you and i are not representative of 96% of the driving public?

 

Toyota Prius - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Best they've done is 500,000 Prius world wide in a year with only about 180,000 in the US in the best year.

Tesla is going to be selling 500,000 a year in a few years and that isn't counting the sales of the others

Nissan
Kia
Ford
Chevy

Just keep watching Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

They aren't up there yet but when the 200 mile EVs hit mainstream in a couple of years you'll see EV sales taking off.

I'm going to say that Tesla alone will crossover all Prius sales in 2018 if the Gen IV prius is conservative. It'll take to somewhere between 2019 to 2021 for Tesla to pull past Prius if Gen IV does something significant.

 

forecasting the future is difficult, i'll agree to disagree. it's easy to say what everyone is going to do in 5 years, gen IV will be covered in dust by then.

 

Will Gen IV Prius be 2016 or 2017?

Telsa Model 3 will be here in quantity in 2018.

Nissan Leaf 2 will be here in 2017 or 2018.

I'm talking 2 years after Gen IV Prius comes out not 5. At least I'm assuming Gen IV won't hold interest that long.