Mirai pricing announced

how do you know they won't be selling the new one there?

 

To personalize this, I wound not have bought a hybrid when I did had it not been made had it not been made by Toyota or Honda. In fact a low mileage 2006 Insight lost the coin flip when I bought my Gen III Prius. The Prius won because I wanted the new car warranty.

 

Nobody knows anything. If the US government kept secrets like Toyota...well you fill in the blank.

 

I don't have absolute knowledge, but here are two powerful clues:
1) Toyota clearly states they don't "believe" in PHEVs or EVs.
2) Toyota backs up its statements with delays galore in PHEV market expansion and technology progress in EVs and PHEVs.

 

i don't agree with either of those statements regarding phev's. perhaps i missed the memo?

 

Apparently you did.
It hasn't been just a memo, it has been press statements by executives, anti plug ad campaigns, statements of dedicating resources towards FCVs vs plugins.
Missed sales predictions, stated nationwide roll outs which have been delayed to the point of not happening until the next gen model, etc

 

I see frustration & denial from those who wanted Toyota push the market into submission, rather than sticking to sound business decisions.

We all know that the rollout of Volt turned into a disaster. GM's attempt to deliver a mainstream vehicle (selling at a rate of 5,000 per month by the 3 year of sales) will be major example of what not to do for decades to come. The warning signs were abundant, yet hope clouded judgment.

Toyota clearly saw what was going on, that consumers just plain were not ready yet. Toyota also saw the inner-conflicts, where other plug-in supporters couldn't even agree on what & how to endorse. Toyota also knew gas prices would be pushed lower and lower due to all the effort among oil suppliers to increase scope & volume. Toyota also knew the expiration NiMH patents would end up stirring the market in an unpredictable way. Toyota also knew the dependency on tax-credit subsidies and HOV privileges was very risky.

As for claims of belief & direction, those are easy to spin. The facts about gas prices, oil supply, battery patents, and dependency risk are not.

There's also the reality of CAFE and EMISSION standards. Any automaker can rollout a token technology. Changing their overall fleet is an entirely different matter.

 

Here is a quick overview.

Toyota To End First-Generation Prius Plug-in Hybrid Production This June. Next-Gen Model Not Coming Till Next Year - Transport Evolved

Not addressed is when, if ever, Toyota would make the PiP available nationwide. One very big problem for me is I cannot purchase a "not for sale" car. No matter what you or I think about a Prius PiP, it is unreasonable to expect me to travel halfway across the country to purchase a car that Toyota keeps downplaying...and may be in short supply at best due to Toyota stopping production of it.

 

the first paragraph is anti pip propaganda. even if true according to the epa, just nonsense. the rest of it simply restates toyota's desire to get both the lift back and pip right, before going to market. i have no problem with that.

i understand how you feel, not being able to buy the best car ever made. hopefully, that will change with the next issue.

i would revise your 2 points thusly:

1) toyota clearly states they don't believe in ev's.

2) toyota backs up it's statement by not making an ev.

add to that: toyota made the first phev 3 years ago, and it is not unreasonable to wait until the end of '16 for the next one.

 

Lots of press releases and interviews.

It the case of BEVs, it's a lot worse than not believing. It looks like an orchastrated smear campaign along with misleading advertising, and press releases that seem to make no sense, in a drive for government support for fuel cell vehicles. BMW is toyota's fuel cell partner and even they seem fed up. BMW's head in what amounts to a Wth moment toward Toyota's push for fcv and against plug-ins in europe and the US, put out this pro-plug-in statement.

BMW CEO Issues Statement On Electric Cars

It's rather telling that bmw sold more expensive i8's in less than a year than toyota plans to sell mirai in 2017. The reason bmw didn't sell more was they didn't plan for the demand, and didn't have capacity, many were sold at tens of thousands of dallars over sticker because of the shortage.

On the plug-in side toyota hasn't said they don't believe, but seem to want to do the minimum. This may have much to do with the mirai strategy. they definitely don't believe in the current prius phv. They cancelled rollout past compliance states. They are ending production this month. They moved resources away. But they are planning a next generation at the end of next year. No announcement for a nationwide roll out and I would not count on one. If the mirai does as badly as toyota is projecting though, and plug-ins keep growing, they may decide to roll it out.

+1

hmm. seems fair in phev. The rav4 bev was quite advanced. Tesla may be called upon again once gigafactory makes batteries less expensive if toyota isn't able to convince governments to favor fcv a great deal more than plug-ins.

Who knows what they believe. They use their political and marketing power against bevs. I oon't really think engineers there believe that bevs are as bad as toyota keep saying.

The first "production" toyota phev was tested in a demo program in 2009. Toyota made roughly the number of these as they will make mirai this year. Release of the for sale prius phv was delayed until 2012, but they had plenty of information to begin design of the next generation. Engineering was complete in 2009, with changes mainly made to the battery and removal of an expensive heating system. Production of next generation was planned for beginning of 2015, which means if it makes it out at end of 2016 that is a 1.5 year delay. There is a necessary delay until the end of 2015, based on toyota not doing a good enough job on the gen Iv prius, and it being held to get it right. But no reason a phv could not follow a few months instead of a year later. The reason is they moved resources away from the project. It would be better to design at the same time so modifications due to phv design could be included in the gen IV. Yes end of 2016 would not be a problem if they were trying to sell the current phv, as they were doing a year ago, but they seem happy to withdraw it from the market not a good choice if you are attempting to sell the next generation. As toyota has repeatedly told us, they have $60B so they can afford to lose money on the mirai for decades. If they wanted an improved phv they have plenty of money to get the engineering tallent on the project.

 

Let me give an example of how blind support for Toyota manifest itself in Prius Chat.
The following post came out April 28:

Prius Plug-in Hybrid Update | PriusChat

The general reaction was a lot of thanks and positive comments. But look at the post. Here is what is communicated: "Dear PriusChat - Toyota is stopping Plug-In Prius Production."

Everything else said is standard corporate fluff. This is not good news for those who are considering a PiP as a next car purchase. How could it be any good for the PHEV market? Delaying the rollout of the next generation is NOT related to continued sales of any well selling car for ANY car type of the present generation.

 

do you consider the pip to be well selling? especially outside cali?

from where i'm sitting, the market is telling toyota, gm, nisan et al, 'we're not interested.' i think we're fortunate that they are still trying.

 

For as much effort Toyota put into restricting sales and production to a few states, it was a very well selling car.

 

okay, i'll agree to disagree.

 

Here is my basis for saying it is a well selling car. The first generations of Prius sold 123,000 worldwide from 1997 to 2003. The PiP sold over 65000 and counting when limited to a few US states and some other countries from 2012 to 2014. Those are not the numbers of failure, but of success.

 

can't argue with that, but i will. i'm more interested in how it's doing as a percent of gassers, etc. and while worldwide is most important, i'm curious about the 14 non hov states. there are so many statistics we could look at, but trying to make sense of them, and without toyota's inside knowledge. it's difficult to judge.

i'm comfortable with how they are proceeding, but if i couldn't get one, i'd probably feel like you.

 

I do think the prius phv was selling well in the first half of last year. They definitely are selling poorly compared to that now, as toyota has decided they don't want to even try to sell it, and production will be cancelled in 3 weeks.

Compared to projections at the end of 2012, plug-ins are doing great. 320,000 sold world wide last year. They are not doing well compared to the presidents rosy scenarios, but are doing much better than hybrids or any other new technology at this early stage. I understand toyota PR, and a lot of technology haters wants to frame the rapid growth in plug-ins as a failure, but that is not how tesla, gm, nissan, and bmw are looking at it.

 

No matter how many times it is pointed out that the reason for not pushing PHV is the lack of being able to reach cost targets, it keeps getting spun to Toyota not believing in the technology.

That's pretty weak and rather desperate at this point. Meeting business objectives shouldn't have to be a point of argument.

 

definitely a lot of spin zone in the anti toyota rhetoric.

 

first half of 2014, now you're blaming sales from july 1st 2014 thru june 7 2015 on toyota's announcement from a few months ago?