Efficient car market growth and trends

i find the hybrid and plugin vehicle market a very interesting one to watch.
This discussion started in another thread, however it was off topic there and I would like to explore this more without pulling that one off topic.

I put forth that the plugin market will expand the market for efficient vehicles.
It was also suggested that the plugin sales have simply taken away from the hybrid sales.

I would enjoy collecting any data points we can here. If you have seen an article talking about where conquest sales of any of the plugin cars are coming from, pleas post them here.

I started a poll at the Volt and Tesla forums.
I can't post a poll at the Leaf forum, as I am not a paid supporter of their forum (yet). I'll see if I can get one posted there.

The (very) early responses are interesting. At the Tesla poll, there are 6 votes for the Tesla being a replacement for a hybrid. However, there are also 5 for the replacement vehicle being another plugin.
At the Volt poll, Trucks/SUVs are actually in the lead, which is exactly what we want

While these are simple Internet polls, they are a step above anecdotal evidence.

Here is the Tesla poll: What category of car did your Tesla replace?

Here is the Volt poll: What category of car did your Volt replace?

Leaf forum poll: My Nissan Leaf Forum • View topic - Poll: What did your Leaf replace?

And a poll here asking the same question: What category car did your Prius replace? | PriusChat

 

While the numbers are statistically small so far, I was quite surprised by the number of people that replaced a truck/SUV with both the Volt and Tesla. Both larger than the people that had been driving a hybrid (at this time).

I was not surprise to see the largest category for the Tesla to be a sports/luxury vehicle. It was a bit higher than I expected though.

While I don't have a poll up at the Leaf forum, this Leaf owner replaced a Tesla with the Leaf. So in my case, it cannibalized a plugin sale. One of my friends also went from a Volt to a Leaf. So same case there.

 

Well, we are getting some decent number of responses, here are the results so far...

For the Tesla owners, 137 voters so far:

• Sports or Luxury. 61 ------ 45%
• Efficient Hybrid (>40mpg). 12 ------ 9%
• Other Hybrid (<40mpg). 5 ------ 4%
• Truck/SUV. 19 ------ 14%
• Plugin Vehicle (BEV or PHEV) 10 ---- 7%
• Other. 26. ----- 19%
• None, did not sell/trade another vehicle. 8 ----- 6%
  
  So efficient hybrids, which would emit less GHG for 40% of the population, only lost about 9% of owners polled.
  Hybrid capture by Tesla overall was about 12.5%.
  
  Trucks and SUVs capture by Tesla was about 14%.
  This one surprised me, I expected more hybrids than trucks/SUVs.
  
  The largest segment was other sports or luxury vehicles.
  
  Overall, I'd say the GHG reductions for the Tesla are substantial when you compare what the owners used to be driving.
  
  Ok, on to the Volt... Here we had 79 responders
• Sports car (BMW, Audi, etc). 9 ------ 11%
• Hybrid. 16 ------ 20%
• Truck/SUV. 24 ------ 30%
• Plugin (Leaf, Tesla, etc). 1 ------ 1%
• Other. 29 ------ 37%

Here we had a higher hybrid owner representation, about 20%.
Interestingly enough, former truck/SUV owners outnumbered hybrid owners again with about 30%.

"Other" was the largest single category which seemed to be a number of sedans.
I would suggest, from these numbers, that the GHG savings are substantial here as well, although not as great as for the Tesla.
While the Volt is more efficient than the Tesla on electricity, the MPG delta is most likely lower.

I would guess that the Leaf will have lower truck/SUV numbers and a higher uptake of hybrids. That is pure conjecture on my part though.

If that were true (going way out on the limb here), I would suggest the GHG savings for the Leaf are still slightly better than the Volt due to its much better efficiency, and using no gas, even though it took more hybrid sales. This would hold for just about everyone in the U.S. except perhaps the dirtiest 20% of the grid.

 

The Leaf moderators were kind enough to help me with getting a poll created.

My Nissan Leaf Forum &bull; View topic - Poll: What did your Leaf replace?

And I have started the same question here.

What category car did your Prius replace? | PriusChat

 

Still very early, however, Truck/SUV has almost 25% for the Prius poll! Fantastic, love to see that

 

Here is another reason I feel plugins will surpass the market share the hybrids.
Hybrids don't appear to keep a majority of people.

Study: Hybrid car owners unlikely to buy another - CBS News

While one of the most common things I hear from plugin owners is that they "will never go back".

Question for Model S owners of 1+ years (Bought in March 2014 or earlier)

I realize this is just Tesla owners. At this time, there are 27 respondents and every one says they will always buy another EV.

Used EVs are starting to hit the market in some numbers, so we should see 2nd generation owner numbers grow as well.

 

For new car sales market share, I may be overly optimistic, however I think that will happen by 2020.
For total cars sold, that will take a while longer, say 2030??

 

The first would be the annual sales.
The second, the total number of cars of the given type that are on the roads.

Basically it would be a function of how fast each category continues its growth.

You are right though, the both rely on lots of factors so these are basically guesses.

 

As I intended this thread to monitor the long-term growth of the plugin market (BEV, PHEV), I thought I would update it.
We just achieved a milestone in September.
The market share of plugins, for the first time in the US market, has surpassed 3%.
I believe plugins have also surpassed the current market share of hybrids for the past few months.

Upthread, my estimate was this would first happen in 2020. Looks like I was off by a year, as on an annual basis, I expect plugins to surpass the annual hybrid market share in 2019.

Next year isn’t guaranteed though. Tesla has been sending almost 100% of Model 3 production into the US market. Next year some of that production will be going overseas.
On the positive side, battery manufacturers are talking about plans to increase production, so hopefully other manufacturers will increase their US sales.