Does anyone know what the future of the plug in Prius is?

You're overlooking what should be obvious: No one wants size & weight to increase.

Sacrificing cargo & seating capacity, as well as reducing HV efficiency, for the sake of farther EV range would be a step backward.

The whole point of advancing lithium battery chemistry is to squeeze more out of less. In other words, more capacity is wanted... which is commonly referred to as increasing energy density. That's often achieved without cost increase too.

 

exactly. we could see 20 miles on the epa next gen, without changing size and weight.

 

And a guy at toyota won't know squat until all of toyota announces...don't forget the wireless charging. It would be lame if the battery size was the same...

 

agreed, toyota leaks about as much info as their cars do oil. we won't know until we know. people do love to spread rumors though.

 

For the Plug-in they may as well wait until they've finished with SiC testing. This would give them more range without increasing the battery size as well as making the entire car more efficient. By the time they start producing SiCs in limited quantities the PiP, because of it's low manufacturing volume, would be perfect for SiC application. I still feel the PiP will be end up being an add-on model to the regular lift back and not a separate family member like it is now.

Well we can approximate the new 2017 PiP EV range by using the same calculations for the 2016 Volt. If the Volt was able to wring out an additional 20% increase in battery I'm sure Toyota should be able to duplicate that. GM used about 8% of that increase to decrease the weight of the battery pack by 32 lbs (docs say the original battery is 435 lbs (Chevy Volt Specs) and the new one is 403 lbs (Chevrolet News - United States - Volt) but they say they lost 20 lbs) and then they used the additional 8% to get to 18.4 kWh from 17.1 (or as used in the other literature 16.5 kWh which is 11.5%).

So using those numbers I'll try and make it a little clearer of where Toyota could go with the new PiP.

1) They could use 10% of the increase to save weight and make the battery pack smaller, so it would shrink from 176 lbs to about 158 lbs. Then deliver a 10% increase in the overall battery capacity which will go from 4.4 kWh to 4.8 kWh overall. Useable battery capacity would grow from the current 2.7 kWh to about 3.0 kWh. Overall the car would be lighter and more efficient (I'll use the GM 12% Volt efficiency increase) so I'd expect about 13.5 mile range. This would be the likely scenario.

2) They could kick back all 20% of the gain and not make the battery any lighter and we'll get a useable 3.3 kWh which again would give us about 15 mile range if we add the 12% overall efficiency improvement the Volt got.

I just don't see a huge increase on the current platform unless there are surprises to be had in the TNGA platform. They will probably concentrate on NVH (Noise, Vibration and Harshness) improvements as much or more than efficiency. Not sure about whether the double wishbone the Auris has would move over to the PiP. Nor do I have any insight about what effect another motor would have for AWD if that is even an option.

 

Even though nothing is certain Toyota did mention they were aiming for 15 miles EV at least (so 11 to 15, but hopefully 15 full EV miles while 11 was not full)

I'm hoping for 20 honestly :O

We'll see...some year.

 

I would say: increase the ev range up to the point of keeping the same hv mpg of the non plug-in.

Chevy Volt aside, seems AER of 20 is some sort of a benchmark, but notice "cost to drive 25 miles" of the plug-ins vs. regular Prius at current gas prices. Compare Side-by-Side

Also residual value of plug-ins, not including Tesla, are currently low, would prefer to lease. Used plug-in vehicle prices dropping rapidly

 

Yes, if MPGs are sacrificed on the EV version of the Prius I'd say it's not worth it (unless it's 1% or less). The current PiP actually has a slightly higher MPG as agreed by others and tested myself than the regular Prius version. My guess is even though the battery pack is heaver, recharging is better and don't forget there's no spare tire components so it's not gaining that much weight.

 

Yes. Although no doubt 50 miles AER will directly compete with the Volt, but I don't see toyota doing it with the Prius. Maybe the NS4 if that ever comes out...

I think the Prius focuses on the Hybrid Drive, while the EV model is an added benefit.

A while ago Toyota said they saw plugin options for all hybrid cars.

Where has that time gone?

 

Great link! Thanks!

 

if you don't get to the $7,500. tax credit, can it be cost effective?

 

Or just 15 miles as part of a tech package for the Prius. No need for a separate model.

The biggest disappointment in the current PPI was that Toyota appeared to go for the profit and not growing the market.

 

They could exploit the plugin tax incentive and grow the market and ZEV credit but then they'll be doing disservice to the environment and tax payers.

 

Not referring to that, but to the mark up and feature bloat. Speculation had the plug in as a $3000 option to the regular model. That may have been low, but Toyota was in a position to eat losses on the first gen in order to grow the market. It is supposedly what they did with the Prius itself.

But they didn't, and were the last to drop the price when it happened across the market.

 

because they never believed in the market and still don't. still, wisdom is proven right by her children.

 

I got my PiP for the same retail price of a regular Prius III with less feature. Toyota was giving $4,000 cash back along with $2.5k fed tax cred.

All that to reduce my emission by about 10% over a regular Prius. It doesn't seem to bring bang for the buck unless grid gets significantly cleaner in the rest of it's life.

For Volt, tax incentives are used to pollute more so GM could get ZEV credit in California.

 

Being part of that history, I can tell you what actually happened. Keep in mind who the market was then and will be later. That makes a big difference. Think of the big picture, the true competition.

First, speculation about plug-in was that the goal had been set for it to become a $3,000 to $5,000 option once the market had been established. There was no expectation of the price being that low upon initial rollout.

Second, it made no sense eating losses when they were far from the only player entering the plug-in market. Making a design profitable means staying true to mainstream purchase preferences and not depending heavily on large tax-credits.

Third, the approach with Prius was to limit availability and set a competitive price. There was no tax-credit back then. There was cheap gas, no concern for the environment, and a strong push for large guzzlers.

Finally, why not wait for the second-generation for the big rollout? After all, that is what happened with Prius a decade back and we all know the cost of batteries has been steadily dropping now.

The rhetoric was absurd and Toyota's approach has been validated. Look at the disaster Volt became, despite large tax-credits and a large price-drop. It suffered huge losses and GM chose not to make the second-generation competitive; instead, the decision was to endorse EV... the very thing Volt was intended to make unnecessary.

Reality is, the true competition is absolutely crushing the plug-in vehicles. The losses GM has suffered were about the money, it's the fact that Malibu, Cruze, and Equinox are the popular choices and Volt is just an interesting model. It comes down to the decision consumers on the showroom floor make. Toyota is well aware that Camry & Corolla must continue to sell in high-volume but is unwilling to sacrifice Prius in the process. Take a look at the struggle Ford has had. What about the delay for Nissan?

It's about making the best choice, not being first or last.

 

If a large incentive was needed to move it, why not just lower the price. I realize the same was going on with the Volt and Leaf. An incentive requires the company to to reduce their profits, or even take a loss.

Start with the last part first, the first model year Volt didn't have CO emissions low enough on CARB's test to qualify for the HOV sticker, I doubt it got SEV credits. PHVs don't at all now. Looking into it, it appears they never did: Zero-Emission Vehicle Regulations Get Tougher for 2012 - Feature - Car and Driver.

The first part, how is the Volt polluting more? You are normally referring to GHG, so I'll discuss that.The Volt, with EPA's 66% EV use assumption, emits 250g/mi CO2 using the average grid mix, with 81g/mi coming from the tail pipe. For the average new vehicle sold in the US, it is 480g/mi. The Cruze is the closest to a non-plugin we got for the Volt. It emits(tailpipe/upstream); 1.8L 333/70, 1.4L Eco 291/60, and diesel 307/90. The Prius is 178/40 and greenest Corolla 257/54. For another comparison, the Civic hybrid 196/46 and cancelled Insight2 210/49.

It didn't beat the Prius, what car does on mpg and emissions? It was close in regards to the Honda hybrids. For the comparable ICE cars, the Volt had lower GHG on the average grid. For regional grids in which PHVs are popular it is better. For me, it is 220g/mi. Beating the Hondas and really freaking close to the Prius.