In my opinion minimum of 200k if you take care of it. I am personally shooting for 10 years and 300k.
agreed, 2-400,000. hard to figure though. i don't know if such little use is good or bad for it. whats your ev/hv %?
Not to be critical of the OPs decision to buy the PiP, but their use (lack of plug-in use) is likely typical of any CA buyer, and underscores the absurdity of trying to manipulate a natural market. How many large battery packs are being produced only to not be utilized? Back to the topic at hand, I've always wondered if the Prius engine undergoes faster wear due to it's ability to maintain a high load. The engine is always seeking to output maximum torque for a given engine speed, and that means more force on rings, con-rods, bearings, etc. Not only that, but the engine is constantly starting and stopping, which means it has to overcome static friction much more often than a normal car. I wonder how engineers address this. That said, it appears the Prius lasts as long as any other Toyota, with the battery being more of an unknown.
The engine never goes over, what, 3K RPM in normal use. High speeds induce much more stress and wear. The static friction is applied to and overcome by the electric motor. It probably sees LESS total wear and tear than a "normal" engine, not more.
My son has driven my former 2004 since I turned it over to him four years ago at 160K miles on the clock. He now has 270K miles. Unfortunately, he just got rear-ended and insurance declared it totaled. It speaks volumes that rather than taking the cash and applying it towards another car, my son would rather pay the extra couple of hundred to repair it and continue to drive a car he knows is reliable and has been taken care of. So, the doom-and-gloom spread in 2003 about the Prius HV battery lasting five years and requiring $4000 to replace has been put to bed. Similarly, concerns over the HSD ICE's durability are probably not well founded.