The begining of the end of the Prius - Time

long term $10. gas. otherwise, alternative fuel vehicles will remain in the realm of alternative energy production. subject to the whims of politicians and money laundering. cape wind just got canned. why? not financially feasible at current electricity prices produced by fossil fuels? politics? fud from bill koch? and that's with support from the government.

 

Most by BEVs that meet their daily needs on the charge from home. For the rest there are PHVs. The plug in market has more potential than the hybrid one.

 

This is my point.
IF EV makers can get the word out (successfully market) about all the advantages of EV then EV's and non blended PHEVs won't suffer as much as hybrids will.

The second generation of EVs is bringing their costs down and increasing range except for Tesla.
In Tesla's case, they are already at cost parity without taking account of rebates. So they are focusing mainly on lowering costs with their next gen.

Nissan had a record setting December. While month to month sales can fluxuate, I expect EV sales to continue to gain on hybrid sales, regardless of gas prices.

 

zyth, i love your enthusiasm, and unbridled optimism.

 

That "potential" is vague. We know apartment & condo owners (as well as owners of older homes) won't be able to plug in where they park overnight for a very long time still. There are now 7 high-speed DC chargers here in Minnesota. Yeah! But at that rate (and expense), it's far from enough for the millions of new vehicles sold each year nationwide... and worldwide.

Not having an outlet available means a diverse variety of solutions will be required.

 

Shucks, thanks.
But if I had unbridled optimism I'd say everyone would do the smart thing and hybrid market share would be at 50% with EV market share at 50% within 4 years.

It is because I don't have unbridled optimism, that I have come to realize most of the market buys based on comfort, price, convenience, performance, heck, number of cup holders.

EVs currently deliver in many of those areas and will be able to deliver in all of them with the second or third generation.

 

i love cupholders.

 

Of course, nobody, certainly not I, is saying EVs are the only solution.
I'm simply saying EVs will take a bigger market share than blended hybrids.

And while many apartment and condo owners that don't charge elsewhere would have a less convenient experience than those with a garage, it isn't universal.
Apartments and condos are starting to install car chargers, even here in MN.

Again, the appearance of plugins is relatively recent. The infrastructure is being built. But even with that drawback, plugins are catching on faster than hybrids did when they were first introduced.

 

but that could be hybrid owners moving onwards and upwards.

 

People just down care enough about fuel efficiency to pay extra for a full hybrid. Even in Europe, where gas is expensive, hybrids aren't a major seller. Plug ins just offer more for their price to attract new buyers.

 

like what?

 

To Zathryn, I'll tell you what I think it would take to move hybrids beyond 4% market share: Midsize and compact 4 door trunked hybrids that lose lose virtually no trunk space, cost less than about 1 to $2k more than equivalent conventional and get at least 50% better combined fuel economy and are marketed and sold strongly by dealers.

 

Some of it definately is.
But not all of it.

This is especially true for Teslas, however for all EVs the most typical one word description of their cars I hear is "fun".

At Tesla owner meetings I go to there are many owners who didn't consider efficiency when buying. They found the performance, technology, drive quality the biggest draws.
After driving for a few weeks, they add convenience to the list of reasons why another EV will be their next car.
For many Volt owners it is similar, although there are many who get it exclusively for the efficiency.
I have spoken with Fiat salesmen who tell me everyone that has test driven both a 500 and 500E buys the 500E.

The biggest thing holding back the EVs is range requirements (imagined or otherwise). This is being addressed in the next generation of EVs due out in two years.
So while Toyota is talking about a 10% fuel efficiency gain in the next gen Prius, EV makers are targeting a 100% range gain, or 50% price cut.

The ICE doesn't have room left to improve much, EVs do.

 

But, I wouldn't be at all surprised if OIL COMPANIES subsidize AUTO MFRS and dealers to push conventional cars and sing the praises of their awesome highway fuel economy.

Or perhaps there aren't enough materials and rare earths to ramp hybrids way up, i do not know

 

Well I went with a "regular" prius rather than a PIP because the increase in cost could not be justified (by me). The dealer said … ~8-10 miles of electric range with the PIP. At 20 miles extra … maybe cost effective.. Almost 50% more in cost. It was more than I could afford. I plan on doing a conversion in about 5 years … hopefully by then it will be more cost effective. It kinda stinks because I Produce about 1000Kwh extra per year.

Actually "rare earths" aren't all that rare. There were mines in the US, but it is more cost effective to just buy from China. If there cost justified it the mines would reopen and supply could meet demand.

 

even toyota agrees that hybrids aren't the end of the rainbow, but ev's have a long way to go just to prove they're as good as hybrids. 200 miles ain't gonna cut it.

 

Zythryn listed them earlier, but the big one is the EV experience and ride. A hybrid may give a taste of that, but for the most part they drive like any other car that still has to make a regular stop to a gas station.

The new Sonata and Civic hybrid are almost there.

The new Volt doesn't even use rare earth magnets.

Plug ins aren't just BEVs though. PHVs will be a big portion of plug ins on the road. Hybrids aren't going to lose out to BEVs, but to the PHVs, and most people will likely prefer a non-blended one.

 

Trollbait, Civic Hybrid? Blech. Last thing I want is a 110 HP car.

Let's see ....
Nissan Leaf - I can't stand sitting in driver's seat in it. It SUCKS.
Tesla Model S - $70k and up. Not in cards for me .... and a whole lotta folks.
BMW i3 - I'm not interested. Too weird looking
um, what else .... Focus, Fit, Rav4, Smart, Fiat, ..... Nah

PHEV

 

PHEVs -
Volt - little too small n pricey for me
Energi's ... Oh no. No Fords.
PiP? No more Prius' for me oh no.
what else is there?

Hybrids - I tried to get interested in HyCam, but Toyota's mini-seat habit ruined that.
Accord, CT, Avalon, Fusion, Prius, and all the rest .....
if my Prius gets totalled next week, I buy a conventional, probably used. I don't like anything on market enough to buy new.

 

I don't see any alternatives going big in sales soon. IF Prius is really good, it could bounce back into top 15 in US sedan sales.