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Slew of new mirai articles

Discussion in 'Fuel Cell Vehicles' started by austingreen, Dec 15, 2014.

  1. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    I don't blame Toyota as there were so much misinformation and press negativity toward PiP.

    Nationwide availability is one thing. Designing to lower emission is another. :)

    I just want to make sure we are comparing apples to apples.

    What is the cost of a charging station capable of refueling 300 EV miles in 3-5 mins, if a battery pack exists to even take it.

    Tesla has the upcoming battery swapping station and it will be interesting to see the cost.

    Your criticism revolves around H2 refuel stations not being there. Yet, you don't want to invest in building them. Talk about go-around-and-round.

    You either don't want to invest in fast refueling stations or you prefer to invest in slow charging infrastructure because they are cheaper. Remember, range anxiety is due to both refuel station availability as well as the speed of the refuel.

    Can you accept the notion that faster refueling stations will cost more?

    Cheap slower chargers will address availability but you also need fast chargers to address range anxiety.

    Hydrogen stations have the speed, just need to be available more.
     
    #21 usbseawolf2000, Dec 16, 2014
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 22, 2014
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  2. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    Aye. It's tough to beat the Prius on emissions. :)
     
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  3. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    Good point. Assuming it has the same HV battery pack as the Prius, it'll weight 99 lbs. The total is 426 lbs vs. 850 lbs.

    FCV energy density (by weight) is 2x more than the best BEV.

    It gets better as the range and weight increases.

    [​IMG]
     
  4. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    toyota has not released official numbers yet, but we do have ball parks from the test drives, and toyota did not blow the clarity numbers away. From those links we do have weight and acceleration as well as guesses on interior and cargo space. Do you link the mirai somehow will get more than 65 mpge?

    Mirai is not on Camry platform. It shares the same platform as HS 250h which weights 3,740 lbs. So it looks like there is about 300 lbs extra.

    This is just Gen1, guys. We saw what happened when Prius Gen1 went from Echo conversion to dedicated Gen2 platform.
    I think you are confused by the comparisons. MIT was really talking about comparing to hybrids and plug-in hybrids. Using a plug-in hybrid means rarely visiting a gas station, and when you do they are everywhere. Most tesla owners can travel more conviently than fcv owners as there simply aren't many hydrogen stations planned, and at current costs there will not be. For those plug-in owners that need fast refueling, probably around 60%, they can choose a phev. These phevs (outlander will be here in a year to compare to the tucson, i3, volt, ford energis, prius phv compare to mirai and clarity) will produce lower ghg emissions if you include the cost of the new infrastructure and same electricity mix than fcv.

    Battery packs are also tax payer subsidized from R&D, manufacturing to sales tax credit. Charging stations are subsidized as well. Even the fuel (solar/wind/etc) are subsidized.

    Why do you have problem with one but not the other?[/QUOTE]

    I have problems with the amount. I expect less than 20,000 fcv will actually use the $220M california hydrogen highway. That would work out to $11,000/vehicle. Add in the tax credits of $13,000 and you come up to $24,000/vehicle + 9zev credits when likely the volt, outlander phev, i3+rex produce around the same tailpipe emissions and recieve less than $1000 in fueling support. Add on the tax credits which will run out not run forever of $9000 (fed + california) and you get less than $10,000 for a phev. I say build it and see if they come in the next 5 years but don't ask for more money when this experiment fails. I don't think fcv are worth an extra $14,000 +9 zev a car to anyone. And while the plug-in credits for plug-ins will end, these fuel cell tax credits seem to keep on getting renewed, even though there were supposed to be thousands in california by now. The sales projections show we will not get to 53,000 by 2017 as promised, so why these huge subsidies per car?
     
    #24 austingreen, Dec 16, 2014
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2014
  5. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    I would say it is worse to roll out higher emission plugin nationwide than not rolling out the lower emission plugin. :)
     
  6. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    I don't. Especially because grids are almost always greening up. A new PHEV will be on the road long enough that it will get cleaner as it ages. Many people will not choose something like a clean regular Prius because, well, it's a Prius and many people hate them for whatever reason. A less clean PHEV offers more choice and may keep a potential buyer in the "clean" section of the automotive world. Their choice to go PHEV instead of a 38mpg ICE will allow them to be cleaner in 2+yrs vs. being neutral or dirtier. :)
     
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  7. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    That was a joke, right??
    The Volt had to deal with tons of negative ads, being politicized, and hostility from talk shows to some of GM's own dealers.
    The PiP had virtually no such uphill battle. Most people aren't even aware of it.
    Those that have heard of it generally have favorable responses to it.

    The Volt, Leaf and Model S have plowed the road, all Toyota has to do is follow.
     
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  8. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Well if I wrote the piece from a EV centric side, that would be an accusation. I was simply explaining a piece written by the MIT technology review, and their choice makes a lot more sense than using an older technology hybrid, these things improve.

    Their point was that if the source of the hydrogen is natural gas a fcv really doesn't produce significantly less ghg than a hybrid, and in some cases more. The way UCS, CARB, and CAFP can get them to be lower is to have a high percentage of renewables as seen on the UCS chart.

    I did live in california, which is part of my disgust with carb and the california public utility comission (PUC). My local grid which I have impact to is lower than the national average, but this is not at all about me, I use renewable electricity. I use the california grid because for the next decade, the life of a new mirai, that is the only place in the US where we will see any number. That is why UCS used the california grid, and california's estimate of how many hydrogen stations would be build to use renewable electricity.

    I say run this fuel cell test, but all the data is that even heavily subsidized these fcv will only run in small numbers in california. You own a prius phv so you should understand that the mirai is not realy lower in ghg than your car unless the hydrogen comes from a large percentage of renewables. If you are going to power the fleet with renewables wouldn't it be more cost effective to put them in plug-in batteries than build hydrogen fueling stations throughout the country? I guess there will be one or two hydrogen stations in new york. would you pay $15,000 (estimate after even heavier subsidies) more for your car and like to be restricted to those 2 stations?

    I would say the prius phv will produce lower emissions in some places the volt in others, and its great to have a choice. Often where the grid is dirtier solar or wind can be purchased. In either case both the prius phv and volt will vastly outsell the mirai, but the mirai will have slightly lower ghg because it is using a cleaner electricity mix (46% of the hydrogen produced by renewable electricity or biogas). The only way I see hydrogen coming from this large amount of renewables is if the tax payers continue paying for all the clean stations. Otherwise it will use the grid for compression and grid for electrolysis and mostly natural gas as a feed stock.
     
    #28 austingreen, Dec 16, 2014
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2014
  9. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    We should be careful as this is also pretty broad brushing. Grids can be pretty regional so one region within a state can be cleaner than others depending on their utilities specific energy profile. In My area you may have SMUD, Roseville Electric or PG&E. That's within a 50 mile radius. :) I'm just making it clear that everyone has to be careful about where they cast stones. On the flip side, these profiles can change year to year. :/
     
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  10. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    On one hand, I think it'll get better than Honda FCX Clarity's 59 MPGe.

    On the other hand, the hybrid cousin (250h HS) is rated only 35 MPG. Mirai is even heavier....

    I am not aware of any hype. Toyota put this together awhile ago but they were projecting 15-20% lower emission than comparable EVs and HVs. We'll have to see if things may have changed a lot or slightly.

    [​IMG]

    Isn't it interesting why they did not include BEVs? Have you seen the emission comparison between HVs and EVs from them? No, because when Leaf came out, it had higher emission than a regular Prius. That didn't make news and pro-EVs kept quite and pushed it under the rug.

    Both Volt and Model S are as clean as 42 MPG gas hybrid. Now, we have a SUV FCV as clean as 38 MPG gas hybrid and it ends up in Mirai bashing thread.

    I had problem with plugin tax credit too. Plugins as clean as 42 MPG hybrids were getting $7,500 but 50 MPG hybrids got $0.

    That money could be better used to clean up the grid by spending them in solar/wind/hydro. This way, the benefit is not only limited to vehicles but also households and other industries that use electricity.

    Building hydrogen infrastructure does a few things. It opens up the bottleneck of refueling speed while providing similar driving range as gas -- and most importantly, a clean well-two-wheel path with zero tailpipe emission. It also solves the storage issue with renewable energy in the grid.

    Since it has advantages of both gas and electric, it makes sense to invest more into it. It gets more bang for the buck. Not only in lower emission but also gain in refueling speed, range -- not limiting to vehicles but anything that uses electricity.

    I may be repeating but I just want to state it differently to get through to you guys.

    You posted pieces of it and turned it into Mirai bashing thread.

    How about post this from the same article?
    By the end of 2015, California is projected to produce 46 percent of its hydrogen fuel from renewable sources, which would render the Tucson FCEV’s emissions equal to that of a 63-mpg gasoline car.

    Do you think California grid will move as fast with renewable sources by 2015?

    Good point, as it is plausible. However, cleaner electricity cost more so the value (bang for the buck) of the it also becomes part of the picture.

    One thing for sure, low emission has cost to it. It is easy to overlook 50 MPG standard Prius set. There are different ways to reach it but plugins are not more cost effective way, especially with the added refuel time.
     
    #30 usbseawolf2000, Dec 16, 2014
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 22, 2014
  11. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Why compare the Mirai to the Tesla S? Because Toyota once said they were targeting the S's price range, FCV supporters tend to have an anti-BEV bent, or something else?

    They have more differences than just the energy source for their drive trains. Based on the same platform as the HS250h, the Mirai will likely be in the EPA compact class. The S just edges over into the large category. It can seat 5 plus 2 kids with options, while Mirai only sits 4. People looking at a Corolla don't compare it to a Fusion or Taurus, but to the Focus. Likewise, people unwilling to to adjust for a BEV will be looking at a PHV.

    In terms of size and seating among alternate fueled vehicles, the Volt and ELR are closest to the Mirai. It and the Volt are going to be about the same in terms of interior space. The ELR is smaller with only two doors, but gives an idea of what impact luxury appointments have on a Volt. The Volt is 3 to 4 hundred pounds lighter than the Mirai. The ELR is about the same weight, but it has about all the options from the Caddy catalog equipped.

    The Volt/ELR will be as clean as the Mirai from the tailpipe for a majority of daily miles even if limited to one overnight charge at home. If required they can refuel fast. Gasoline is dirtier, but overall emissions will depend on how the electric and hydrogen is made. Drivers do have to pay for gasoline though, so they may take steps to be frugal with it. The ELR is pricy, but the Volt is thousands less than what the Mirai will cost, and it is available nationwide right now.

    It will take billions to build out high pressure hydrogen refueling infrastructure. Charging stations aren't only other possible use of such money. It can also go to developing better ways of making ethanol, methanol, butanol, or even renewable gasoline and diesel.


    How does California define renewable? Does it consider how the electric is made in the case of electrolysis, or ignores that?
    Is any biogas being used for hydrogen being diverted from a landfill power plant?
    If renewable energy sources are used for reforming natural gas, does that get partial credit?
    How much will this increase the cost, or will FCV drivers just continue to get hydrogen for free?
     
  12. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    Nope. Volt proponents especially, were bashing the PiP. All the topics were about gas engine starting, EV range, EV speed, battery size, gas consumption etc.. Nothing about emission nor electricity usage. Volt thrived on the confusion / not knowing the difference between gas consumption vs. fuel economy. It didn't even track kWh usage, all it reported was MPG. I know later model year now include kWh, probably due to John's and my criticism.

    I wasn't. I was comparing the energy density of both technologies. I thought I was pretty clear about it.

    Do you know any compact BEV with 60 kWh battery pack, to compare? This question also lead to another one.... Can it?
     
    #32 usbseawolf2000, Dec 16, 2014
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 22, 2014
  13. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    yes - because of the HUGE cost difference between DC QC charging vs hydrogen fill station build costs. DC QC station you can do for as low as $13,000. That cost is NOT all burdened by the taxpayer.
    Nissan Now Offering $15,000 Towards CHAdeMO Charger Installs in US | Inside EVs
    Hydrogen? MILLIONS ... and 100% is a burden of the tax payers.
    Hydrogen station - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    And at the end of the day - you have a car that 90% of the population can not afford, even when its cost IS heavily subsidized. Yes ... round and round
    .
     
  14. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Stop it already, my sides are splitting! :ROFLMAO::LOL::ROFLMAO::LOL::ROFLMAO::LOL:
     
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  15. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    No, but I do expect that about 40% of plug-in owners in california will purchase or build renewables, and if account for that the same way CARB accounts for renewables for hydrogen, the plug-ins turn out to produce less ghg.

    I was not intending to post a mirai bashing thread, but other comments have turned it into that. I did intend to bash the California Fuel Cell Partnership for their false and misleading information. As posted in the WSJ articles numbers the Mirai looks like it will get a great test and subsidy in Japan. We have reality numbers and mirai is getting leased by government and companies that appear to want to look green. The hybrid cars reveiw mainly says the mirai is an R&D experiment not a mass market car, but toyota has oodles of cash (more than $60b, and can afford to wait a long time. The mirai should be taken in perspective of what it is. It certainly will not help california drop its ghg in the next decade, but it should provide a good data point for sales and cost of hydrogen infrastructure.
     
  16. hyo silver

    hyo silver Awaaaaay

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    Yes. It wastes a colossal amount of money that would be better spent elsewhere, it gives people the false idea that they're being environmentally responsible, and it helps fossil fuel industries make more money. Win win, right?
     
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  17. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    My question really was, "why compare the Mirai to a BEV?" Even Toyota's promotionial material says BEVs will exist for around town use, and that the fuel cell car will be a replacement for longer trips. They aren't direct competitors, even if a cheaper BEV of the S's range was available. The majority don't want to change if they have many long trips. The PHEV or renewable fueled hybrid or straight ICE will be its real competitor in the future if hydrogen refueling infrastructure spreads. Since the majority of the hydrogen will come from NG or even coal, even current fueled ICEs are a competitor.

    Comparing the relative weights between batteries and fuel cells with hydrogen tanks is a distraction. Specially considering the 5 gallons worth of gasoline they are displacing weighs 30 to 40 pounds. The public, who ultimately decides if these technologies succeed or not, rarely give though to their car's weight. Only hypermilers and performance drivers truly care. The rest only voice a complaint when a car is too light and gets pushed around by crosswinds, or too heavy to be too slow. Tell them that the Tesla battery is so much heavier after they have test driven both cars, and meh is probably the most likely response.
     
  18. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I'm sure that some fuel cell proponent will bring up some points, but here is MIT Professor Sadoway
    I'm sure those with an open mind will enjoy it.


    Tesla's current cells have a specific energy of 240wh/kg. Now given that some of the tesla pack is structural to protect it and some capacity is not usable, I can belive the tesla spots for the first grid. Now Sadoway's rule of thumb is that you can get about 1 mile of range per wh/kg which amounts to 240 EPA range (pretty close to the S's 265 mile range) for such a battery. The kicker is, there is not a physical limit. The fuel cell has been around since 1839 (not called a fuel cell until much later) and has extremely limited use. The battery has gone from 35wh/kg to 240 wh/kg, and it keeps improving. So the second graph does not represent the future of battery technology at all. 400 wh/kg is working in the lab right now. That means ATBE, a 300 mile epa battery in the near future could be built for the tesla weighing significantly less than today's car, which should be good enough. "How many trips do you take that are over 300 miles?" This should just require R&D, not any big technical breakthroughs, although less cobalt needs to be used to reduce costs. On the other hand 10,000 psi hydrogen fuel cells need a large number of breakthroughs to be cost effective with this BEV. In the transition plug-ing in a phev seems to make the most sense.

    At the end of the question and answer someone talked about quickly reducing. His answer was simply pulling over the least efficient cars and giving the driver a check for $15,000 and sending him to a toyota dealer to buy an efficient car would be way more cost effective.

    "If we can't afford it, how do we expect China and India to afford it?" (refering to fuel cells + infrastructure.)
     
    #38 austingreen, Dec 16, 2014
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2014
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  19. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

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    That was only true for the 2011 model year so about 90% of the Volts on the road in the U.S. today do indeed report the kWh used on the center console screen (in 2011 that screen location reported the total miles driven since the last full battery charge).

    And, all Volt's get "free" OnStar efficiency reporting for at least 3 years that includes mpg and kWh charging and subsequently for a $200 a year subscription. The data is available at a dedicated website that owners can login to and see their individual data. They can also receive automatic monthly emails summarizing this data for the last 30 day period.
     
    #39 Jeff N, Dec 16, 2014
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  20. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    I agree it's a rather useful feature (kWh used). :)

    While we're on the subject of displays. Did you get a look at the display on the Mirai? 2005 called and wants its technology back.
     

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