Extensive Spreadsheet shows PIP / Volt not for us

A friend of mine made one of these spreadsheets once. After wasting weeks on it, he concluded that the Hyundai was the best value.

So he bought a BMW. Which goes to show, it's not all about the spreadsheet.

 

I think you're correct on both counts. Coming also from a Gen 2, the drivers door only smart key sensor is a bit of a bummer on the v3. Practically its not really that big a deal, but I particularly miss being able to open the hatch without unlocking. There are people who have successfully retrofitted the other two door sensors on the v3, but its a bit of a job.

The spedo is quite a bit more centered on the v. You can get a pretty good idea from this:


I'm not sure its any closer to the driver than the Gen 2, but it is direct view rather than the "reflected view" on the Gen 2 that gave it a more distant appearance / focus plane.

Rob

 

The instrument cluster above would be perfectly positioned, IF you sat on the center console.

 

Good Point!


I am also in my 60's, a former engineer and I like spreadsheets as well. I agree the spreadsheet can only take you so far and is lacking in many inputs. The difference between your high and low replacement cases is around $3000 and you seem to keep cars about 6 years so the spread is about $500 per year of use. Many inputs are missing. How long will I live, how long will I be able to drive, how many more new cars will I enjoy. Change your assumed gas prices, resale value or repair costs and the $500 a year starts to look like noise.

Do what makes you happy and what you can reasonably afford!

 

Have you considered used?

 

This is not likely to be true. I assume your calculations come out that way because you are ignoring resale value at the end of 9 years. Keeping the 2008 for 3 more years will cost more in your calculations because the operating cost of the vehicle is higher than all the other options. If you ignore resale value, than the 2008 will lose in every scenario. You don't need a spreadsheet to determine that.

But what happens at the end of 9 years? If you kept the 2008 for 3 more years before replacing, then you would have a 6 year old car at the end of your scenario with many more years of life left in it. If you replaced it right away, you would have a 9 year old car that is ready to go to pasture. This CANNOT be ignored even if you have no intentions of selling the car because it is a value of how much use the car still has in it. Therefore, you need to include at the end of your scenario, the resale value of a 3 year older car, possible battery replacement, and inflation impact. There is an easier way. And you don't have to take my word for it.

Replace the car when it becomes unreliable. Don't keep the 2008 for 9 more years. Keep it until it becomes unreliable. If it's all about lowest costs, I think you can agree that the longer you keep every vehicle you own, the lower the costs will be.

Put it in other words, if you set the duration to 12 years instead of 9 years in your spreadsheet you would come out ahead selling the 2008 in 3 years because you would have to purchase 1 new vehicle instead of 2 in the other scenarios.

 

There is every reason to think that a Prius can be uber-reliable out to 15 years old if you maintain it well and take care of problems as they arise rather than letting them fester until the car limps to the side of the road.

 

Yes, this is also true. The savings accrue for four main reasons:

1. Less depreciation
2. Cheaper insurance
3. Opportunity savings
4. Technological improvement

 

Definitely try to sell it PP instead of trading it in. The more complicated the transaction is the more the dealer will try to low ball you on the trade in value and/or minimize the amount off of MSRP you're getting. Look for the best PP buyer and dealer price independently and you'll get the most money/best price.

Something else that worked for me was going on truecar/Costco (if you have it) and putting in inquiries for months before you buy. If you do it often enough the sales people will hopefully remember you as someone who is interested in price (They need to make you a fair offer) as opposed to someone who has to buy a car (They have the advantage).

By doing that I made an easy purchase at a local high volume dealership when Toyota Finance had their $4k cash + 0% APR. The dealer quoted me a price over the phone ($7k off of MSRP) that four other highish volume/low price dealerships in norcal/socal I contacted couldn't beat. On the flip side, when my wife and I went in previously and were looking for the same car, the offer they brought to the table was stupid high, so letting them know you don't have to buy and are looking for the best price helps. From what I've gathered, an auto/agent broker can also get you decent deals plus their commission.

$8000 for your current Prius sounds right to me. I payed ~$7600 two years ago for a 2005 five with 137k miles. In retrospect, it was less than other cars because it had an off-the-books fender bender/repair, but the worse thing so far has been the paint fading, so I think it was a good purchase. I wouldn't worry too much about the battery. Mine has ~200k miles and has been driven/parked in Santa Fe Springs/Moreno Valley for the past ~60k miles with no hybrid battery replaced needed. I think capacity has dropped somewhat, but my wife is a lead foot and always left the windows rolled up.

The cooler the car is and the less aggressively you drive, the longer the battery will last. I think the 2006+ batteries are also a little better than the 04/05 batteries, but I could be wrong. If you do decide to sell it, please PM me since I've been thinking about buying another one for family (depending on how much living situation goes).

 

Unreliable? From seeing resale values prior to buying new it seems the prius holds a good value. Batteries aren't that costly from what I have seen and maybe less years from now too.

 

and if you are a veteran or active duty USAA has a car buying service too.

 

One of the factors rarely on a spreadsheet but is a big consideration is the money message you sent to a company by your selection.

 

I was musing over the use of the term 'fixed income.'
If McIlroy has a bad year, he is on fixed income too. I gather about $10M a year from Nike.

It might force him to use a spreadsheet in deciding what plane to buy.

 

It sounds like the PiP is out no matter what because of the center console, but I'll point out a couple of things.

1) This has been mentioned, but the PiP gets significantly better mileage than the regular Prius under most non-EV conditions. I find the worst I get is ~50mpg in cold weather, winter tires, freeway speeds of 70-75mph. In a year I think I have one single round trip that got less than that. On other roads with speeds less than ~65mph, 60mpg+ is the norm. That pushes your cost per mile for the PiP on gas to closer to .06/mile as opposed to the .08 you used in your calculations.

2) Regarding the federal tax credit. A way around this is to lease the vehicle and buy it out at the end of the lease. This would get you the benefits of the full $2500 rebate, and if you lease well, this can be as cheap as buying, and if you are smart when you buy it out, it can be cheaper as you have leverage in the negotiations as the dealer would far rather sell the car to you than take it back and have to find another buyer. Three years from now will likely be a sweet spot in PiP depreciation as the market should have moved well beyond 10 mile partial-EV's.

I think both of those factors would combine to drive the overall cost of the PiP quite a bit below that of the regular version.

 

8 cents/mile for the regular prius is high.
10% less fuel in the PiP in HV mode is already on the optimistic side.