Extensive Spreadsheet shows PIP / Volt not for us

I just finished spending about 12 hours creating a spreadsheet which ended in a decision that shows a Gen III is lower cost over the next 9 years than any other option in my case. I actually compared 25 different cars or options but will only speak of three here.

I realize everyone's driving situation is different, and there are personal choices that would vary from mine. This is just our particular situation and I'm quite surprised by the outcome.

It didn't take me long to decide I needed a spreadsheet to make the decision. There are many factors involved. It's not all about purchase price, or loan interest, or gas mileage, or EV range, or gas price per gallon, or features of the car. It's about all of them taken together.

I won't bore anybody with the extensive details. But I'll just say that I put together a drive plan that covered the next 9 years (don't ask why 9 years) which became the basis for my cost of ownership results. There are daily drives to take our son to school and pick him up, each 26 miles round trip with about 2 1/2 to 4 1/2 hours between to do any battery charging. Then there are 1,000 mile drive vacations, normal local 14 mile shopping trips, and out of town 300 mile day trips. There are no charging stations available to us away from our house.

It's important to say that due to our personal finances we can not take advantage of any Federal Tax Credits but can take advantage of California Rebates (currently $1,500) form California. From the purchase price of each potential car I subtracted the amount of money I would get from selling our 2008 Gen II.

Purchase Price (from Edmunds), minus cash from 2008 Prius sale, minus $1,500 CA rebate, plus loan interest (5 year loan @ 2.34%)
2014 Prius Hatchback $18,980 (no rebate available here)
2015 Prius Plug-In $23,540
2014 Volt base $26,857

Total Gas + Electricity cost for nine years
2014 Prius Hatchback $14,126
2015 Prius Plug-In $12,048
2014 Volt base $13,435

Total cost for nine years (includes car price, loan, gas/electric fuel)
2014 Prius Hatchback $33,107
2015 Prius Plug-In $35,588
2014 Volt base $40,293

$7,000 savings is considerable for me on a fixed income.

I was quite surprised to see how closely the of fuel was between the hatchback and Volt (@ $0.12 KWh). That is all due to the low gas mileage when not in EV with the Volt, especially with our four 1,000 mile trips each year.

Aside from the higher cost of the PIP and Volt the idea that we'd have to unplug and plug them in two or three times a day for maximum EV range was a consideration. Wouldn't it be nice to have a drive-on charge system that would plug in as you pull into the garage!

The PIP does have the advantage, over the standard hatchback, of Heated Seats which my wife likes.

Beyond cost of ownership there are these key differentiating features (and many not shown) that I rated on a factored scale:

- Cargo space with seats up (Volt looses big time here for us: 21.6 vs 10.6 cu ft)
- Seating Capacity (Volt looses big time here for us: 4 vs 5)

My intention was to see if the Volt or PIP would be a car for us given our new need to drive our child to school 13 miles away. But the extra purchase price for the Volt and PIP were big differentiators. Some say the Volt is a much nicer car than the Prius and it may very well be. I haven't touched one in person. But we've been very happy with the Prius.

Unfortunately I really do not like the flying buttress console of the Gen III so we will wait until the Gen IV comes out to see if Toyota changed that. Had the PIP offered much lower overall costs I would have had to decide if I could tollerate the console issue. Our 2008 has 135K miles on it so we have some time to wait for new models to come out.

I will reconsider the details in my spreadsheet after I decide about putting solar on our roof which might tip the scales in favor of the PIP or even the Volt.

 

Good questions. They go to the heart of the matter.

- I used 35 for city driving and 40 for highway as the EPA indicated.

- Actually for around town with hills, traffic signals, and such I used 2.7 miles per KW which I found on-line which works out to 28.35 miles per full charge. For long trips I used 35 miles until the car switched to hybrid mode. I figured that is reasonable as the area we live in is over 100 degrees in the summer most days, then in the 40s-50s most winter days. So we'd be using the A/C certainly in the summer and heat in the winter. Your figure of 47.25 miles EV per charge is way over what I read online.

- For recharge cost I divided the number of miles driven divided by 2.7 times $0.12

It's fair to say that rather than using real world values for any car I used the published spec values. I can easily get 50+mpg in our 2008 Prius (not my heavy foot wife though) but I used the published figures. It's the best way I know of to get apples to apples comparisons.

I'd be glad to make any corrections. My spreadsheets tend to be rather complicated with lots of formulas and I often find errors. I'm not in a hurry to buy a car so I have time to sort this all out.

 

For the Volt I just changed my spreadsheet from 35 miles of EV to 38 miles of EV because I found the EPA number. Don't know how I missed that.

Fuel costs were $13,435, now $13,406

 

Model 3 so we can get the smart key on three doors. I wish it was all five doors.

 

From the sound of that comment I gather this has been hashed out here many times. But it's new to me given that we suddenly find ourselves facing 14 years of driving our son to a school 13 miles from home.

So tell me. Is there a usual way this normally shakes out? Does the Volt always win? PiP?

 

I've checked for 500 miles and all I can find are 3 2014 PIPs. All are priced slightly above the 2015 price!!!

 

John, that is a wise idea. I fully understand too as I kept very detailed records of our expenses and income for 15 years, in a spreadsheet, before I retired. It was that mountain of data that allowed me to retire early and have a solid plan for the future.

In this case I feel my plan is reasonably detailed enough for comparison, and as I apply the same driving plan to all 25 scenarios it will serve my purpose. I do need a pattern so I can apply it for 9 years.

 

Thanks for the response.

As it is the Federal Credit allows one to subtract an amount from taxes owed or overpaid. In my current situation I have zero federal tax so I simply don't have any money to "credit." Hence my situation is different than most I would guess. Were I able to take advantage of a $7,500 tax credit it may very well put the Volt into the #1 position for total cost to own.

I am retired and live in a very low traffic city where the green sticker has no meaning for me. I did live in Southern California for 25 years and I could see how using the diamond lanes might provide faster commute times and a steadier pace as well. People reading this thread may have read between the lines and see my situation is rare. I'm 68 years old with a 4 year old son (we adopted our grandson). As you said individual situations vary...

We actually were on the Toyota lot back in August when there were some great deals and 0% financing. Alas those deals are gone now.

 

I like the idea and have no problem buying a decent used car. I'll keep this in mind and keep searching. As for the moment I just did a search and found only one PIP withing 150 miles of my house.

2012 PIP with 18,660 miles for $29,998. I'm confident I could buy a new PIP for less. The good news is these Prius cars really hold their value.

(now back to work on my spreadsheet. I've found errors...)

 

By the way I'm using 9 miles EV mode for the PIP in my calculations. We have hills, heat or cold, stop signs, and traffic signals on our daily driving. Before the PIP came out I thought it was supposed to get like 14-15 miles EV. I haven't paid attention so was quite disappointed when I learned it is rated at 11 miles EV.

Is that a reasonable value given we'd be using heavy air conditioning in the summer and heat in the winter? We have about 4 months a year when it would be comfortable to leave the windows open while driving.