PiP sales seem to be really lagging the Volt and Leaf

I'm starting to suspect, as some posters here have mentioned, that the reason Toyota is reluctant to release the PiP nationwide is because they don't believe there's enough demand in the states that don't normally sell them. Hybrids and alternative fuel vehicles are still a niche market, and it's hard to convince the average joe and jane to spend an extra $5-15k to get a hybrid, especially as gas guzzlers are becoming more fuel efficient. Yes, nowhere near a prius, but most people would be happy spending $18k on a new car that gets 30-35 mpg and is fairly reliable as well.

I'm thinking that the PiP and its limited market is just a testbed/guinea pigs for the 2nd gen PiP. Toyota wants to see what's working with it, and what's not working with it, to improve on it and try to make it more appealing to the general public. 11-15 miles of EV range at lower speeds isn't very appealing to the average joe, but maybe 50-100 miles at speeds up to 85 mph and 65-75 mpg hybrid mode with a lower cost may appeal to them. Yes, those are high numbers which probably won't be realistic till the gen 5 prius comes out, but we can always speculate.

Whatever happens though, I hope the next gen plug ins/hybrids sell well. We might have to wait another 10-15 years before they become more mainstream thanks to lowered costs from higher economies of scale and increased range/efficiencies, but I feel at some point people will feel a hybrid/plug in is a worthy investment in.

 

That's not reluctance. It's smart business. There has been overwhelmingly confirmation that the mainstream market is not interested in any vehicle offering a plug. Even with great incentives, the plug is confined to just a niche audience. It simply doesn't make sense rolling out a product to the masses when the masses aren't ready for it.

Look at how Volt's approach made no difference. Designed with the assumption that "range anxiety" would be a major purchase deterrent, the hope was it would crush the plug-only competition. Clearly, that didn't happen. It didn't come anywhere near close to anticipated sales volume either.

The goal of being able to offer PHV as a competitively-priced Prius package option is especially challenging in a market that doesn't even embrace hybrids. Prius sales are flat and the other automakers face even more of a struggle.

What would there be to gain by expanding rollout right away? It was smart of Toyota not betting the farm on a single choice. GM really backed themselves into a corner with Volt. No one knows what their next move will be or even what it should be. At least with Nissan, we see the commitment and a solid plan forward. The path for Ford is clear too. But none are in a position to compete now. Traditional vehicles pose far too great of a barrier to overcome still.

 

This would make sense IF one of the states they sold in was Texas. There is already a large market there.

 

a large market of plug in's?

 

Plugins and hybrids.
Surprised the heck out of me too. Sales back it up though.

 

thanks! is there a source for comparative state sales/registrations?

 

If we paid as much for gasoline as in Europe, we'd probably see more impressive sales numbers for both hybrids and plug-ins.

 

agreed, as long as we don't have to pay what they charge in europe for cars.

 

I don't think plugins are taking off in Europe. Ampera (Volt cousin) was discontinued.

 

I believe the numbers of electric cars sold in Europe has gone up dramatically. See: Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV sales reach 33,000 worldwide

About the only manufacturers that didn't show increases in 2013 vs. 2012 were General Motors and Peugeot-Citroen.

 

Top 6 Plug-In Vehicle Adopting Countries:

Those countries with the highest market share in 2013 were Norway (5.6 percent), the Netherlands (5.37 percent), France (0.65 percent), Sweden (0.57 percent) and the U.S. (0.62 percent).​

Top 6 Plug-In Vehicle Adopting Countries - HybridCars.com

Most plug-ins are gasoline, so diesel centric Europe may hinder faster adoption. Some of these countries also have their own incentives as we have state and federal rebates/credits.

 

Norway has gone to about every government extreme possible to make EV use economically overwhelming.

Gas 2 | Bridging the gap between green heads and gear heads.
Tax Exemptions in Norway Cut Tesla Model S Price in Half | Inside EVs

When a Tesla Model S is made cheaper than any other high end car, how can it not make Norway's EV percentage so high.

 

Yes there is, I wanted to purchase one due to the state recently deciding to offer a $2500 rebate for buying electric or hybrid electric like the Volt. Why would the state offer it if they didn't think the market was there or needed more encouragement.

 

I haven't found really good data, just the occasional article. They seem pretty consistent though.
Here is one: The Top 10 States for Hybrid Sales - Adam Goldfein

LOL, they also don't sell in the #2 state for hybrids, Florida.
It really looks like they only sell where they can get ZEV credits?

 

Since we know the goal has been high-volume sales, what does that mean?

It makes no sense expanding when none of the others have achieved that, even with triple the tax-credit.

 

i'm not doubting you, but they are politicians. follow the money?

interesting chart, thank you. i guess you can make those numbers work in many ways, tx and fl being the second and third in total vehicle sales (and population?). it's clear that touota isn't interested in being number one in plug in sales at the moment. what is less clear is their alternative fuel vehicle strategy for the future. but i think you can say that of almost every manufacturer.

 

Think about how the automakers differ. Comparing one who designs to need to another who caters to want is pointless, yet that happens all the time anyway.

 

That's good data, but I don't know what to make of it. I was aware of the Experian study back in 2011 or 2012, seems like this may be that older data restated? Not sure. I recently calc'ed Ca. was now 33% of hybrid sales...they are saying 25% I gotta go back and check. Also not very clear if they are talking cummulative sales or what, and as of what date?

The reason I know is I sort of keyed on Virginia No. 5... I think we must be slipping now because HOV incentives have weakened here. HOV was driving those Va. sales, whereas Va. was the first state to offer free HOV to hybrids and, because like Ca. we have traffic issues, the HOV incentives sold hybrids here. We did "grandfather" those HOV plates, so they have the incentive to keep buying hybrids to keep the HOV plates, but new hybrid buyers are hosed. So we still have an incentive of sorts.

 

The details may or may not be off a bit.
The big picture remains though, that Texas and Florida are strong hybrids markets, yet are both not states the PiP is sold in.
I have heard Texas is the number two state behind California on number of Teslas sold.
Seems both Texas and Florida would be good states for Toyota.

 

Re: TX...PiP gets $2500 off in TX, but Catch-22 you gotta buy in it in TX.
I think there is a prior post where someone advised me TX Toyota dealer(s) lobbied for the nice PiP credit, hoping they would get some PiPs. Of course they are getting the Toyota USA offices so maybe TX looks possible.

What data we really need is every year, every state, % cars sold in that state, % hybrids sold in that state.
Then we would have some hopes to see the state trends and correlate that to state policies (HOV etc).
I am thinking VA we have weak new car market due to taxes, we could be a leader, instead we got a lot of clunkers to save taxes. But I got no data to prove it (the data is held proprietary by Experian, Polk, etc).