Chervrolet Volt 2016 - what if...

5 seats!

 

same interior volume as pip and hatchback, woo hoo! why not $30,000.?

 

200 mile range plus the engine seems like a waste, as most people would only exceed the EV range on trips. I think 80-100 miles would be more realistic as far as size, cost, and practicality. I personally don't mind 300-400 mile gas range, as I stop at least that often to use the restroom and stretch my legs. Better gas economy would be great. I wouldn't be against your list happening, though, as it would cause used Volt prices to drop like a rock, making it cheaper for me to get one.

 

200 mile range on battery alone for $35K would be impossible. Just as impossible as their claimed 270MPG GM claimed before the VoltI was released.

 

The claim was 230 mpg.



And look, they exceeded expectations!

Ampera | Vauxhall Motors UK

 

The rumors about a 200 mile battery are for a BEV, not the Volt. Maybe it will be the Bolt name for which they recently filed a trademark application.

My personal guess is:

$33,000 base price
45 mile EV range
40 city, 44 highway mpg
18 kWh battery
160 HP

$28,000 base price
28 mile EV range
40 city, 44 highway mpg
12 kWh battery
110 HP

Those specs may disappoint some people but I think they are both achievable and well-positioned against Toyota, Ford, and Honda on price and value.

 

I agree with Jeff. I think there will be a small bump in battery capacity and range (less than 50 miles EPA) and efficiency improvements in the ICE.

I'm hoping for a 5th seat...

 

Most would expect more for a generation update, especially EV range. If that's the case, closeouts deals on the last model year Gen One Volt would be a great opportunity. I can only imagine the current Cadillac ELR with 24 mile EV range will suffer dying a slow death, only to be accelerated.

 

The bump from 35 miles EPA to 50 EPA would be more than 40%. Even that may well be too much to realistically expect. Battery tech is advancing, but not that fast. They would have to make the vehicle larger to accommodate more batteries, which also means heavier. Since the current battery size already maximizes the federal tax rebate, I don't think we'll see much of an increase in EV range.

 

One point...
Your statement that they would have to make the vehicle larger is not correct. There are a number of ways they could do this, most likely they will use a combination of these options.

Lower the weight of the vehicle.
Allow the car to access more than the current 60% of the battery capacity.
Improved battery chemistry.

They already improved the range by almost 10%, from 35 to 38.

As to the OP's hypothetical...
I would never buy that. Unneeded complexity, maintenance and weight with two drive systems.
At 200 miles EV range I don't need a toxic fuel container on board, nor an engine to distribute that toxicity into the local atmosphere

 

Since tesla doesn't think it can get 200 mile range no engine down to $35K without the gigafactory, this isn't very realistic. Add at least $5K for a range extending ice. So in 2015 impossible. Rumors are 2016 or 2018 gm and tesla can do it, with tesla buiding their own batteries and gm buying from tesla, lg, or samsung without a range extender.

Telsa finds that about 8% of miles are on super chargers, that is with 208 and 265 mile epa range. The 38 mile volt is likely 33% gas miles. Say you get 40 mpg in charge depletion and travel 15,000 miles per year. At 40 mile range and 32% gas or public chargers, that is 120 gallons of gas a year. For many that is little enough. 200 miles would be around 10%, say at 37 mpg (added weight) would use 40 gallons. This versus say 300 miles in a prius. The optimal if you are going to include a $4000 + ice is 120 mile range or less. Perhaps the bmw 71 mile range is ideal, or 50 miles, but I doubt it is worth those more batteries up to 200, unless we are using superchargers instead of a range extending ice.

Wait, you see a decrease in price in the gen ii model would mean it will sell worse than gen I? I don't get it. ELR is 37 mile range not 24, its problem is price not range. volt range in 38 miles, and a small increase to 50 miles (small increase in battery + button to use higher soc) would be great for many people.

 

Even with the pre-2008 EPA ratings on the sticker, the gen2 Prius would not have been has successful if it had remained a compact sedan like the gen1.

I think the next Volt will have some modest improvements to EV range and CS fuel economy. The range went from 35 to 38 miles with the refresh. Getting it above 40 shouldn't be a challenge. Same with getting the combined mpg over 40.

To reach more people, the new Volt needs to lower the price or improve the rear seat for passengers. I think $35k is fine if they get a fifth seat and more headroom into the back with those modest efficiency improvements.

 

I think its more than numbers. One thing that probably hurts the volt was packaging. Size of the volt is not too bad in terms of cubic feet.
Compare Side-by-Side


passenger volume (cu feet) has volt at 90, gen I prius 89, gen III prius 94, prius c 87
raise the roof line a little, package the battery differently to allow a bench seat in back as rumored, and that size may be fine. I don't think luggage volume is a problem
cargo (cu feet) volt - 18, gen III prius - 22, gen I prius 12, prius c - 17.
I don't expect that gm will be able to do as much outside the numbers as toyota did going gen I to gen II, but ... the volt is closer to a car that meets demands than the gen I prius.

+1

I think $34K may be fine ($25K after tax credits california, #24K after tax credit texas) for today, but I think they will try to take more cost out, and are planning for sales after tax credits go. They may plan for higher profits with tax credits, with break even when they end. If they do a good job and sell an average of 40K per year US, federal credits will end sometime in 2018

 

Actually, it's 10.6 ft^3.
2015 Volt Dimensions: Passenger Room, Cargo | Chevrolet

 

The EPA measures it as 18.
Compare Side-by-Side

It maybe that GM is only measuring to the windows and the EPA to the roof.

 

MPG UK is different from MPG US, but both are...errm...lies?

 

Looks more like 23 to me.

 

Another factor is that all the federal and state EV credits top out at 24KWh batteries. If you have a 48KWh battery or 85KWh like a TeslaS85 you only get credit for the 24KWh. That's why Tesla is the only one so far to push the boundary by so much. Some cars now are in the low 30's, but if the federal credit was increased to allow larger packs, I guarantee cars with larger packs would be produced in more volume.

 

The tax credit is capped at 16 kwh and starts at 4 kwh. The two guys (now that corporations are people) in the room with congress were gm and toyota, and suprise the tax credits matched the proposed cars from those two auto makers. But really these tax credits were to push the technology and drop the price of batteries. Given that at the time of the bill toyota was claiming $1200/kwh that would not come down much (hence the 4kwh is optimal because batteries are expensive and will stay expensive), the bill is a big success.

Lux Research: Tesla Gigafactory To Cut EV Cost By $2,800, Create Massive Overcapacity As Tesla Misses 500,000 Unit Sales Target
not that I agree with the projections, but they do have good estimates of recent costs.

We can assume gm and nissan are somewhere between the figures ($300-$500)/kwh less than half of what toyota thought they would cost.

If battery prices are dropping this fast there is no reason to pass further tax credits, manufacturers will build for the market. The only tweak you might make is to change the tax credit to be passed to the dealers at the time of sale, instead of requireing tax forms of the consumer where lease companies can play games to steal more of the credit from the consumer.